Texas/OU are moving because a new TV deal is going to be hot garbage for the Big 12. There were rumors they asked ESPN/Fox for a new deal last summer, and they told them to fuck off. The reports of a 75% loss in value are absolutely true. Nobody gives a fuck about the Big12 unless Texas or OU is playing.
The fact that it ended up being the SEC is probably more OU than Texas. I don't think Texas gives a shit (they could do either), but OU's lack of AAU status probably forced them to the SEC. They had to be sure they had a landing spot, and not a repeat of prior realignment attempts. Worst thing would be to focus on B1G then get shut down, and SEC say no because they don't want to be the second choice. Both teams have negotiated with the SEC/B1G/Pac10 before. They know what the offers would look like.
Timing was also chosen by the parties because there's no way for the Leg to interfere, especially since Abbott is governor. The focus is on the voter bill, not on college football.
The leak by Aggie was probably expected.
We will be in the SEC in 2022. Big12 is dead. Texas and OU media rights are not around in 2025 for the new deal, and no big fish is going to want to save this sinking ship. They'll be lucky if any games are shown on Fox Sports SW after 2025. And adding a bunch of shit teams is not going to improve the media deal. Any remaining Big12 teams will get shit timeslots on shit channels, and a huge reduction in payout. No penalty money Texas or OU pay them will make up for it. Those with any value will bail ASAP. That's the end of the conference.
I don't second guess the past decisions because the landscape has changed so much. This is the right time to make the move, and I like that we are being proactive as fuck. Now we need to get our NIL shit together.
My guess is we end up with 4 power conferences of 16 teams when all is said and done. Where it goes from there depends on what the media landscape looks like in 10 years. I can see a NFL light scenario for Football in 10 years. But that assumes that the current media trend continues. Things have changed so much since 2010 and even 2000. Hard to say. But I do think the SEC is the best spot to be in to navigate those waters in the future.