It’s pretty simple really.
Trump is going to retain his support base. They aren’t going anywhere. The message will be that the media is inflating COVID-19 stats to make Trump look bad. With the whole #fakenews aspect, you’re not going to convince them to give up that bone. They saw it on TV and read it on Facebook. For all we know, this may prove to be 100% accurate as we progress through the data. Plus, free stimulus $ and cheap gas.
Trump is going to pick off Bernie voters that absolutely won’t vote for Biden. Or, they are going to stay home, which heavily favors Trump. This gives them the moral superiority of saying it’s not their fault Trump won without compromising their loyalty to Bernie by voting for Biden. Biden loses a lot of steam as the pick due to the Pandemic. Trump gets to campaign on TV for free without the need for a rally. No one is talking about Biden in the news cycle because he’s taking a backseat to the current crisis. He’s a palette cleanser candidate. I don’t know if I’ve discussed politics with anyone in NYC that liked Biden’s policies, or could give me examples of them, rather than him being “not-Trump”.
Rs that don’t like Trump are going to make a “lesser of 2 evils” vote. There will be an uptick voting for Biden over what Hillary got because Biden was the better candidate. I don’t know that there are enough flips in battleground states.
The “black vote” won’t be as strong this election cycle for Biden. It looks like pandering at this stage and Trump will seize on that. There is no evidence to show that a significant portion of black voters are on the fence and need convincing on which candidate to vote for. Throwing a minority woman out there is a Hail Mary play. Warren is the only real pick that may pay off since her 15 minutes is not quite up. (Wendy Davis, anyone?) Anyone else is too controversial or too divisive to pick off unsatisfied Rs. It’s voting for the VP, not the POTUS, which is the Ralph Lauren Chaps to the Polo. Trump has a nice chunk of the Latino vote already.
Now, there’s a long time until November. But it’s not hard to see why Trump is favored. 50% of this country voted for him last time...but do you see MAGA gear on display on any corner? (Well, when you could visit corners) Don’t underestimate the deafening effect of public silence. Kerry was supposed to hand W his ass after 9/11 and the Iraq invasion.