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The rumor is enforcement at the bulk level is wildly inconsistent as well. I've heard anecdotally that they aren't really enforcing collection at Long Beach, but it's all cocktail chatter. Edit: SOmebody else already posted it. From my own perspective, I notice coffee beans at Costco were across the board $2-4 more a package, regardless of brand. I'm assuming that's just corporate preemptively collecting, pocketing profit if they aren't already remitting.
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The funniest part about this is they will restrict exports just long enough for a bunch of investors to lose their shirts on reopening the Mountain Pass RE facility in California.
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Art of the Deal, my man.
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The drop in consumer sentiment and producer price index tells me everyone, across the board, is slamming their wallets shut and hunkering down. Combined with the bond flight, that screams recession to me. But what the fuck do I know. I was still equity heavy 6 weeks ago.
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I used to work with a lot of Chemical companies, and this dude from a certain Delaware company once told me: “Regulate me, or don’t regulate me, but set the rules in stone and get the fuck out of the way so I can invest and apply capital.”
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Whelp, they just pulled the budget vote tonight, so if Trump was trying to impress Chip Roy, it didn’t work. I think the sell off in long term bonds freaked them out, and they pulled the relief valve. I’m a long etf guy. I used today’s rally to diversify and reduce my equity exposure, eating some minor losses to protect my portfolio against more turbulence. I’m trying to retire abroad in the next 3 years. I don’t need that dipshit from Queens fucking up my retirement.
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Some of the people on this thread:
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I was happy when my portfolio was 20% larger 3 months ago before this sefl inflicted bullshit started.
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Yup. Also, I suspect somebody chloroformed Navarro and stuffed him in a closet long enough to talk Trump into blinking.
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I don't know about you guys, but Ima rebalance my shit. CNBC reporting a 90 day tariff pause.
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I don't konw why people think the Fed is going to step in to save the Market. At this point, the electorate has gotta swim through it's own shit river and let the economy shake out. Tariffs are sort of a one time inflationary event (at least in theory). They aren't the classic too much money chasing too few goods. Once they induce a recession, prices will top out/stall and the Fed can start thinking about cutting rates. Again.....in theory. But theory doesn't account for a Mad King.
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I think the EU would like to negotiate a way out of this, as opposed to the Chinese, who neither want to back down and would like to use this as the moment to assert it's hegemony. The problem for the EU is whether they can get Navarro off the ridiculous VAT stance.
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Part of the problem is Wall Street seems to think there is an adult in the room somewhere that is eventually going to step in and make this go away. But there isn't. If the pain gets bad enough, and the recession deep enough, you may be able to pull together a veto proof majority in Congress to end this madness, but we are still a long, long way off on that. The Members are just beginning to stir and realize that maybe they shouldn't have broadly delegated the ability for the President to set Tariff rates. We've got a ways to go before enough GOP Senator's and House Members have constituents beating down their doors. Not CR-ing, just trying to put some process in perspective. If we get a couple of weeks of 4-5% daily falls, maybe something could come together quickly, but otherwise, slow bleed in the red is going to take till fall (probably past the Virginia off year elections, assuming the GOP gets crushed) before Congress will stir into action.
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