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Bateshorn

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Everything posted by Bateshorn

  1. I have a vivid memory as a young scout of an assistant scout master forcing us to break camp in the middle of the night in Perdernales during a pop up storms, with more than a bit of panic and urgency. I was tired and annoyed at the time, but thankful today.
  2. The thing about climate change, and this is no CR, but think of it like loaded dice, and you want to prepare for the worst case scenario being both worse than historical standards and more often. Whatever the worst case is: flash floods, hurricane winds, tidal surge, drought, heat death, lake effect snow, etc. To stick with the gambling metaphor: if in the past you’d roll a snake eyes occasionally and lost your original stake, now you roll it much more often, and your stake and house is on the line. And you don’t roll a 9 nearly as often to make money/have a good time. So for central Texas, you’ll have both more drought and, given how heat affects atmospheric dynamics, more catastrophic flooding.
  3. My grandfather used to tell me stories about the dam before Tom Miller failing.
  4. A atmospheric chemist I know put it this way: carbon dioxide doesn’t think about you at all when it absorbs radiation at one wavelength and then gives it off in a different wavelength.
  5. As somebody who works/worked in and around the DC not-for-profit community, I second this. They are one of the most inept organizations on earth. You are better off using actual cash to start a cooking fire. I know it’s challenging but please wait until local verified rescue groups are on the scene to contribute money.
  6. FWIW, I listened to portions of the birthright citizenship case and when they were not discussing injunctions, at least 6, and possibly 7 judges were extremely skeptical of the government’s position.
  7. I know we are talking tactical campaigns... but since being a pedantic asshole is a birthright here, I'd argue this little campaign in the spring of 1863 is kinda the gold standard for operational planning and execution:
  8. As long as Marine Le Pen draws breath and the French far right remains a viable political party, I wouldn’t rely on the French for anything beyond cheese and wine.
  9. I don’t disagree with that. Just the narrative that the Iran’s just straight trucked a bunch of 60-90% enriched uranium out and nobody in combined intelligence community said “hmm, I wonder what’s in those 18 wheelers?”
  10. I find it a little hard to believe that over the course of a week since the war started, with air superiority, the Israelis just watched the Iranian's back up trucks to Fordrow and load it up with an unidentified cargo and drive away. Or the US overhead satellites feeding intelligence to the IDF.
  11. I mean, we can't have that wartime cabinet dissolve and him be exposed to criminal indictment now can we?
  12. Depending on how successfull we ultimately determine the Fordrow attacks to be, this kinda seems like the Iranians are all but begging us to ask Isreal to stop.
  13. Given what Israel just did to Hezebollah and continues to do to Hamas, I think we know the answer to that question. They've gone full Judge Dredd.
  14. That's Marvelous!
  15. Lol. The Russians:
  16. Technically you may be right, but it's a pedantic difference only this White House and the Surl would engage in. I'm sure Macron was using some artistic license, or b eing polite. Unlike Trump, I'm sure he didn't want to say "yeah, my understanding is he's going back to bomb the fuck outta Iran."
  17. Man, I love you, but there ain't no fucking way the Persian Diaspora isn't going to meddle incessantly in post Ayatolla Iran. The US ones alone will pay-for-play with the Trump White House for concessions. It's not quite going to be on the grift level of South Florida Cuban meddling in the case of a Cuban government collapse, but it's going to be bad.
  18. I posted it above, but the White House said Trump was leaving G-7 to deal with Israel-Iran. Macron, when asked, said President was leaving to deal with Israel-Iran. Trump goes on Truth Social and says I didn't leave because of Israel-Iran and Macron is talking out of his ass. That's just in the last 18 fucking hours. Gaslighting and bullshit is default for this administration. They are the fuckboi of Presidential Administration.
  19. Either that, or the Isrealis may try some sort of airborne force to take the facility. Which may also require our involvement from an overwatch and logistical support.
  20. The Press Secretary literally said he was leaving because of Israel-Iran.
  21. As an aside, I've heard anecdotally the Air Force is loathe to use B-2 for almost anything these days, out of fear that each time use them, there's the potential the Chinese pick up improved data on stealth detection.
  22. Same. Although I'm getting more isolationist as a I get older. America never thinking more than one step ahead and resorting to force as a solution for everything?
  23. Good shit. I think for the Isreali's they have 3 military options for the nuclear program, none of which are perfect: 1. Use their limited bunker buster weapons repeatedly in hopes of eventually breaking through deep buried Iranian facilities. Both inefficient and risks potential dirty bomb scenerio. 2. Use nukes tactically. I don't believe this is really on the table short of some sudden existential threat we haven't seen. 3. Some sort of airborne operation to take the facilities in force. The chances of this turning into a debacle are high. Which leaves them with two other outs: 4. We use our bombers to destroy the facilities, which is possible if option5 doesn't happen. 5. Iranians capitulate and give up weapons and/or internal regime change. It's worth noting, while Iranians are suffering civilian casaulties, the Israelis appear to be using much more caution than they are in Gaza.
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