Everything posted by Bateshorn
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Election Day 2025
I count from 50. Green won 59-38 in 22 and 24, so I over counted (working from memory) but that’s an R+9 district. From your math it looks gonna about a 9 point win as oppossed to a 22-ish point win in the last two election cycles.
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Election Day 2025
It’s an R+11 district. If it ends up being R+4 tonight that’s a bit of a Dem over perform relative to Virginia last month, where I don’t think they took anything higher than R+5
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Hegseth & the Boys
Kind of feels like in addition to a constitutional age and term limits, an amendment to make the pardon subject to disapproval by joint resolution of congress should also occur.
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Trumps War on drugs, Venezuela and Colombia
You don't *have* one of these, do you Jack?
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Trump’s America
That's close enough to Silver Spring. LFG!!!
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Markets still falling like whoa
- Markets still falling like whoa
I gotta take an inherited RMD and I’m gonna do it today.- Markets still falling like whoa
So, is the Nividia print gonna keep the Jenga tower aloft or what?- Trump’s America
I think it's more likely the elections will go off, he'll declare them fraudulent and try to seize the capitol and prevent Congress from being seated. Which is like a mile and half from my condo, so that's fun. As a reminder, Congress expires at the end of next year. A new one has to be sworn in for their to be a Congress.- Trump’s America
Anywhere in Farm country outside of OK is going to be possible if the economy is bad enough and the Chinese don't start gettign serious about their Soybean purchases. It won't be a case of people becoming Democrats as much as just staying home/punching out of the politcal system for a while. THat Florida Senate seat is ENTIRELY dependent on candidate quality for the Dems, if they run a turd, no amount of tailwinds will push them across the line. I think any Southern/Red state that has elected a Democratic governor in the last decade will potentially in play, except possibly Louisiana. Again, it's just people having a "Fuck those guys" moment. That's why I put Kansas as potentially at play, if they have a good candidate.- Trump’s America
I thought I read that no GOP seater greater than r+6 fell in VA a few weeks ago, so if I had to guess, right now? I think everything from r+8 is possibly in trouble. If Nividia doesn't print after hours today and the market sells off 2+% tomorrow, I think the base is Everything GOP+10 is shakey and the trendlines are getting worse for the Republicans. If we do really get to GOP +15 seats are in trouble, the Senate is going to look real interesting. AK, ME, NC, OH, and IA will be in deep trouble, with KY, KS, MT, and possibly SC or AL coming into play. I won't believe TX is going to flip until the Democrats can win literally anything statewide, even with Ken Paxton on the ticket.- Trump’s America
Reminds me of when I read Collapse by Jared Diamond and he's talking about environmental degradation in Montanan and points out that it's ridiculous to assume Anaconda was going to protect the environment and how people were shocked when they poisoned the groundwater. That's not their job. Of course a corporation is going to bribe a law maker if it's legal. That's like asking a hyena not to eat an injured antelope. It's the job of the body politic to set a regulatory environment that provides guardrails. If you don't want the hyena to eat the antelope: shoot the hyena or save the antelope. But the hyena is just behaving as hyenas behave.- Trump’s America
@Zonahorn I just went back and redid my math and saw its R+9. I think that's still a long shot, but I'm not quite as doubtful. Charlie Cook seems to currently have about 30+ GOP districts in play that are R+10 and down, so I see why it's now considered Likely from Safe.- Trump’s America
That is an R+22 District, my man. I love your enthusiasm, but that's a big ask. An R+15 I could see, if I squint a bit, but a +22 is huge. OTOH, if they did win it, it would indicate the Dems aren't looking at a possible 10-20 seat house majority, they are looking at potentially a 75+ seat majority.- Epstein and Maxwell
- Epstein and Maxwell
I was inexact. When I work with attorneys, they are internal or with clients. You zoom/phone to get on the same page, then start exchanging emails. You verbally have the conversation about me walking around with my dick out. THEN you have the email exchange. I represent a lot of clients as a lobbyist. We call first. Then maybe have a follow up with counsel. Then exchange emails about next steps. Do not fucking email me about how the government is fucking you. Call me, let’s dicuss, maybe point me at a few online sites that can be googled easily. Then you can send me an email to discuss your concerns about how draft policies could have unintended consequences affecting every day Americans. The whole point is discovery should a very boring, truthful, And anodyne record. Because that’s what happened.- Epstein and Maxwell
As somebody who works with a lot of attorneys, I remain shocked at what people still put anything important in email. The number of emails I get a day that are just "Hey, I need to bring you up to speed on something, can we do a call?" is somewher around 5-6. You should NEVER email anything vaguely important.- Should Traffic Controllers be paid during shutdowns? And should private planes receive the same access as commercial airlines during flight restrictions?
I believe a shutdown should be a shutdown. All spice stops flowing. No bullets to troops. Bases go dark. Courts close. No employees of any kind are allowed to work except elected officials. The creeping expansion of "essential" employees and work is bullshit. If Congress and the President don't want to do their job, fine, but the country should feel the effects, full stop.- Epstein and Maxwell
As an aside, my son and I developed this theory that the Fantastic Four can never really make a good live action movie, because the dick jokes about Mr. Fantastic are so obvious and distracting that it overwhelms the story. It's why gender swapping Mr. Fantastic to Elastigirl in the Incredibles was so necessary to make a successful movie (plus Edna Mode is maybe the best animated character of all time. "NO CAPES").- Gooner or later, we’re in serious trouble….
- Will UT Bend the Knee?
- Government Shutdown 2025: This Time It’s Personal
👆 Calling this a victory isn't quite Mack Brown post OU blowout delusional.....but it's not great.- Trump’s America
I approve of this well curated Simpson's deep cut.- Will UT Bend the Knee?
I found this online from last April: https://www.aacu.org/newsroom/a-call-for-constructive-engagement You know whose name is on there? Garry W. Jenkins, President, Bates College I'll let y'all figure out who is not.- Trump’s America
Hmm, that sounds suspiciously like a rent controlled apartment. - Markets still falling like whoa
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