I’m not sure, barring Trump coming out with some sort of Kum-ba-ya Reaganesque “we all need to come together to save America and I’m the first to moderate ” moment, this changed things all that much, other than making him look much more physically robust than Biden.
What reliable likely voters are most likely to change their vote based on Saturday: older white men who consider themselves Reagan Republicans who are likely to rally back to the GOP flag. The question is whether they stay there when the crazy starts to creep back in.
By Wednesday we are going to be shoulder deep in GQP conspiracy and angry talk. Maybe, Trump’s folks will tone the convention down, but what in recent memory has shown any indication they ever take their foot off the gas?
Maybe the entire country will Rally to Trump like Johnson in 64, but that seems….unlikely given how deep our political divisions are.