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Bateshorn

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Everything posted by Bateshorn

  1. Dunno. According to the Beaver and Jake Sherman, he’s a wooing the GOP Moderates.
  2. Yeah, the conservatives don’t trust McCarthy on the Rules package, which is why we are doing this now.
  3. Yup. But they take time to ripen.
  4. The Dems just whipped the GOP statewide. It's not a lock, but I wouldn't sweat that seat too hard, given WV, OH, MT. Basically, if the Dems are losing MI in 2024, they are losing across the board.
  5. I do a presentation on Congress where I mention that eventually all Senate’s run out of things to do and just become a nomination factory. For this Senate, it’s already started.
  6. Well, that’s the most reductive question, but also the most on point: unless something changes, you are looking at a nothing happens Congress. Probably Best case scenario is we avoid a default and a shutdown (via a year long continuing resolution), pass a defense bill, and if really lucky, a farm bill, call it a day.
  7. So there are a couple of things here at a meta level about how the house works: The GOP does not have an operating majority obviously. They are a minority government. Moving to a plurality potentially forces the hold out hands: Either Jefferies or McCarthy. But that only picks a Speaker, which allows the Members to be Sworn in. Next is the rules package for the 118th Congress, which doesn’t exist yet. But that suffers from the same problem: McCarthy has to either give the hold outs what they want, or he has to find votes from Jefferies, thus allowing the Democrats to ask for similar concessions in their direction. And those concessions will look like a progressive mirror to the HFC: Equal membership on rules, no Jordan on Jusiciary, A vote for abortion rights, not using the debt limit as a negotiating mechanism, etc. Conversely, Jefferies winning on a plurality has the same problem: he doesn’t have the votes to pass a rules package.
  8. Well, he’s got the Dong for it.
  9. Predicting anything at this point is like betting on college teams in overtime: it’s all kickers and 2 point conversions. Having said that, if McCarthy can’t lock it up tonight, at some point a main-ish stream member is going to break, and then somebody will nominate Scalise. They may have to move to plurality to do it, but if I had to pick an alternative, it would be him.
  10. This is basically correct. The extreme weirdos in your high school have hijacked half of one of the 3 branches of government.
  11. On a more micro level: McCarthy finally got a W. Granted, it’s on a motion to adjourn and it was thin AF, but he won a vote. That’s something, even if it’s thin gruel, in the House. I’m hearing rumors he may have to agree to open rules on legislation, which is just chaos grenades, and to @Ghost of LL point, helps the Dems more than anything, because they can attach messaging votes to almost anything.
  12. Traditionally people get admin or hill jobs by working as interns or on campaigns. From there they transition into private life either lobbying, non profit, etc. My advice is to get involved with politics at a local level: volunteering in campaigns, local advocacy groups, etc. there’s a bit of right place at the right time component to it, but the first thing you have to do is be politics adjacent. You could apply for internships, but much like line chef, that’s a young persons game. The federal government is always hiring, but those jobs are highly specialized and you need to know someone on the inside. I’m happy to start an AMA if there’s interest. Assuming you aren’t hitbyAtrain of course…..
  13. The big bugaboo will be the debt limit. Can the government organize enough to prevent a default.
  14. It’s totally fucking up my work schedule. I’m supposed to be introducing myself to new members, talking to committees, etc. NO ONE IS IN CHARGE?!!
  15. I guess the Slacker era Austin was my time. The number of dodgy bong hits I took on ratty couches in Clarksville and West Campus…
  16. I cannot, as a former House staffer and professional lobbyist, stress this enough. There was literally nothing in the cspan footage that indicated the Dems are breaking or wavering in the least. They were goofing off, playing grabass in the well, just ear to ear smiles. The CBC members were giving valedictory votes for Jefferies into the 3rd round. The only thing that caught my eye was Scalise wandered into the Dem well for a solid half hour. Bro hugs and shakes. Chatting up Dem ranking members. Just enjoying himself all around.
  17. Stop suggesting a Democrats help McCarthy deal. It’s. Not. Going. To. Happen. The man is a known weakling and liar, the Dems will never help him. A coalition speaker will have to come from one of the remaining moderates or conservatives (like Tom Cole) that the D’s trust. And it will come with significant concessions for the Dems to abandon the first black man to be seriously nominated for Speaker.
  18. The board is Yeah, Nay, Present. It’s not equipped for this type of vote. The Members have a unique card they stick in a slot at locations on the floor and hit a button to record their vote. The totals are projected up on the wall above the gallery behind the lectern.
  19. Behind closed doors, he’s Brian Kemp or Doug Ducey. Very personable and sane. Publically, he’s probably a 7.5 on your scale.
  20. I was under the impression he had to accept a reintroduction of the Hastert Rule to appease the loons. Which means a majority of the majority. So no. I suspect the mod R’s would not allow the debt to default and do a discharge. But I do envision a stoppage of agency funding at some point.
  21. I honestly don’t know. In theory, if the Senate were to pass a debt limit increase, a member could introduce a discharge petition on the Senate bill that if it garnered enough signatures (218) would eventually ripen on to the action calendar and force the House to vote on the measure. It takes 30-ish days for that to occur if a special dispensation is not given by Rules. Ive been advising my client to expect an extended government shut down in 2024.
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