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Anastasis

Certifiably Surly
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Posts posted by Anastasis

  1. I would certainly hope that we are conducting intelligence operations targeting the various Chinese and Russian vaccine development activities.  I obviously would not advocate us attempting to undermine their work in any way, but keeping tabs seems like a pretty important piece of information that could significantly influence geopolitical posture in the next year or two.

    Now, if you can prove up something more nefarious than intelligence gathering, full nuke ahead. And BTW, if you are working on vax development, please do not use "p@sswOrd" as your workstation password. 

  2. 16 hours ago, NateHitch said:

    Grabbed some BOXL at .87 thinking it'd be a pump and dump but this one seems to have legs

    Yeah, second the request for more info.  What's the play here? Online education, they have some contracts pending?  Or just stonking?

  3. 8 minutes ago, texastough said:

    I have come to your defense multiple times, and I despise Abbott, but wtf is this? Just a random drive by not referring to anything specific, other than possibly linking Abbott with the high numbers yesterday? Thats not helping the discourse (if it can be called that) here

    Hugo takes every opportunity he can to shit on anything Texas, despite LA having 2x 6x as many deaths per capita and a much more geographic compact region to deal with. 

     

    • Like 1
  4. 12 minutes ago, SizzleChest said:

    It's a fucking Phase 1 FTIM study with an n=45 - age is typically 18-55 for these studies.

    I understand that purpose and reason for the limitation.  In terms of generalizing the findings (and there is a lot of that going on, see the stock market response for example), this is a limitation.  They had good titers in healthy group of younger individuals. The world is interpreting this as vaccine on the way! Everyone needs to slow their roll a bit. So far so good, but slow the roll. 

    I did read that they had a cut of older subjects as well that would be released shortly.  Not sure if that was also from this Phase 1 study, or whether the article was referring to something out to the Phase 2 stuff that is wrapping up.

    ETA: Here's the press release where they indicate they have older age groups, and the results for those age groups are pending.  Also substantial elderly in Phase 2.  

    https://www.modernatx.com/modernas-work-potential-vaccine-against-covid-19

    Evaluation of the durability of immune responses is ongoing, and participants will be followed for one year after the second vaccination, with scheduled blood collections throughout that period. An additional seven cohorts in this Phase 1 study have completed enrollment: a 50 µg cohort in adults 18-55 (n=15), three cohorts of older adults (n=30, ages 56-70, 25 µg, 50 µg, and 100 µg) and three cohorts of elderly adults (n=30, ages 71 and above, 25 µg, 50 µg, and 100 µg). These data are expected to be published separately. Given the increased morbidity and mortality of COVID-19 in older and elderly adults, additional evidence for the potential of a vaccine to protect this population is an urgent priority.

    ...

     

    Both cohorts, healthy adults ages 18-55 years (n=300) and older adults ages 55 years and above (n=300), in the Company’s Phase 2 study of mRNA-1273 are fully enrolled. This Phase 2 placebo-controlled, dose-confirmation study is evaluating the safety, reactogenicity and immunogenicity of two vaccinations of mRNA-1273 given 28 days apart. Each participant is receiving placebo, a 50 μg or a 100 μg dose at both vaccinations.

     

     

    • Like 2
  5. Virtual is not viable without some supplementation, at least based on our experience in the Spring.  We are forming up little educational pods for two of ours, with like minded parents who take things seriously and minimize their risks as well as any of us can. We'll have some small groups, like N=3, to do school work together, have some social interaction, etc.  Putting together groups of kids that can hopefully challenge each other some. We are going to try to thread a needle managing the different risks.

     

    Anybody have a good online resource for school furniture.  Thinking about ordering some school chairs/desks and basically converting the game room into a class room.  

    • Like 1
  6. 1 minute ago, Bama Chick said:

    This seems like a bad idea considering how this virus appears to be impacting black and brown communities at a higher rate.

     

    The lack of racial diversity is a problem.  Also the restricted age range 1-55 years. 

  7. 21 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

    Yes he should. But he is apparently outside and away from others. He is not the problem. Which of course you know.

    It's not a knock on Fauci. The point is that we need to normalize mask wearing through every outlet available.  I think a magazine cover under a banner of InStyle is a good opportunity wasted, imo.  

  8. 51 minutes ago, Blotto said:

    I kinda applaud whoever is behind this. First, it clowns twitter pretty badly, and fuck twitter. Second, there are no victims here. Anybody that gives Gates, Musk, Apple etc....bitcoin on the assumption they would immediately receive 2x their donated amount is too fucking stupid to bother with money. Those people will lose it all eventually, 100% of the time. This effort just accelerates that process, and I appreciate people that can figure out ways to greatly increase efficiency. 

    Imagine the havoc they could wreck by posting to one account in particular.  Bigger play would be to tank the market with a series of tweets right around after open. 

    full disclosure: I am kinda rooting for them to run that play in the morning. 

  9. https://reason.com/video/trumps-failed-promise-to-stop-americas-endless-wars/

    Trump's Failed Promise To Stop America's 'Endless Wars'

    "The best aspect of the Trump foreign policy is that he has revealed the mind of the foreign policy establishment," says historian Thaddeus Russell. "The worst part... he's a mass murderer just like the rest of them."

    Excerpt:

    "The problem with Donald Trump, of course, is that he's a millimeter deep," says Horton. "He has some instincts, but he doesn't have…thinking really on these things."

    Trump's wars with the media, Democrats, and protesters have meant that Americans are paying less attention than ever to our actual wars, which nevertheless are still being waged.

    Trump hasn't invaded any new countries, but he has ramped up the nearly 19-year-long, $2 trillion Afghanistan war that's cost the lives of tens of thousands of Afghans and more than 3,500 U.S. and NATO troops.

    Trump deployed thousands more troops to Afghanistan in 2017 and dropped more bombs and missiles in 2019 than in any previously recorded year.

    "Once they get in there, all the incentives are to keep the [wars] going," says Horton. "Afghanistan is the greatest example of this."

    Instead of withdrawing troops from Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria once he took office, Trump vowed to stop publicly reporting troop numbers. 

    The Trump administration did strike a deal with Taliban leaders in late February to wind down the war within 14 months if they pledged to prevent terrorist groups like al Qaeda from operating in the country, and the Pentagon announced a reduction in forces and withdrawal from five Afghanistan bases on July 14.

    "The fact that Trump was willing to break with Bush and Obama's policy to go ahead and negotiate directly with the Taliban was a clue that he was really serious," says Horton.

    But he worries that deal could be scuttled by uncorroborated reports that Russia paid bounties to Afghans who killed U.S. troops, which prompted Republican Liz Cheney to partner with several House Democrats to place conditions on the withdrawal.

    Horton also points out that Trump has increased U.S. involvement in Yemen and Somalia. In Yemen alone, the United Nations estimates that the Saudi-led and U.S.-supported bombing campaign has resulted in almost a quarter of a million deaths.

    "These are two of America's most horrible wars and no one pays any attention to them whatsoever," says Horton.

    Trump has continued and escalated the war on terror, which could make the U.S. susceptible to getting involved in even more conflicts around the globe. He also undid Obama's nuclear deal with Iran and ordered a targeted assassination of Iranian Gen. Gen. Qassem Soleimani, whom he accused of plotting an attack on an American base.

    But after Iran fired back, Trump backed off. He pulled back a strike in 2019 after Iran downed a U.S. drone, and political allies and media commentators portrayed it as a weakness. He faced widespread criticism for moving troops out of northern Syria and praise when he fired missiles into a Syrian airfield after allegations of a chemical attack by Bashar al-Assad.

    "Look at the narrative and the agenda in the media," says Horton. "How dare Donald Trump try to end any of America's wars ever."

    Russell worries about the increasingly belligerent rhetoric on both sides of the aisle towards China. Trump has escalated tensions with China through his trade war and  the reported placement of low-yield nuclear weapons in the region. But Russell still believes Trump's rhetoric was useful.

    "The best aspect of the foreign policy of Trump is that…he has revealed the mind of not just the foreign policy establishment…[but] really government workings and the workings of the state," says Russell. "The worst aspect of the Trump foreign policy is that he's a mass murderer, just like the rest of them."

    In the end, Trump, as commander in chief, has had ample opportunity to begin making good on his promise to begin extricating the American military from its endless wars. Time and again, he has failed to formulate a coherent strategy for doing so.

    "It never should have been this way. We screwed up, got the whole 21st century off on the wrong foot," says Horton. "But we didn't need to. We could call the whole damn thing off…and just forge that new [foreign policy] consensus and stick with it. It should be easy because we're right."

  10. Just now, justhookit said:

    Someone may be able to correct me, but this isn’t as bad as it might look. CDC was never the one issuing the daily data reports. That kind of information like daily new cases, daily hospitalization numbers, daily deaths, etc. will still be reported daily by the county and the state on the health department websites.

    jinx. 

  11. I don't know what the implications are of moving the data clearinghouse function, but I do know that I primary look at county, TSA, and state level data.  These data are being reported opening in most (every?) state.  All of the early data aggregators, including JH, were (and still are?) based on scraping the state sites. 

    • Like 1
  12. 10 minutes ago, Txzen said:

    Link to the above paper : https://pediatrics.aappublications.org/content/pediatrics/early/2020/07/08/peds.2020-1576.full.pdf?download=true

    It's a study from Switzerland, looking at families and family transmission from March to April of this year, 'the clinical presentation of the first 40 pediatric cases of COVID-19 in our city'. 

    The positive read to the data is that  ~80% of the time it appeared that the adults in the household appeared COVID positive first, and 'only' 8% of the time were the children positive. Note that in Switzerland schools closed in March and only just reopened in May (link). The potential conclusion here is that children are less likely to be the primary vector of transmission, I suppose. But if the schools were closed, does this really tell us much? And 'only' 8%, in a situation where perhaps the children are mostly sequestered, may underreport the risk (and they ackloedge as much in the paper). 

    A longer rebuttal to my argument here, with additional global examples which may suggest that the potential transmission from child to adult is rare : COVID-19 Transmission and Children: The Child Is Not to Blame

    What about the reverse, positive child transmitting to parents.  Only a small number of anecdotes, but I have seen a number of situtations where an entire family was testing and only one of the children were positive.  Negative for everyone else. And children in both cases were asymptomatic. 

  13. 43 minutes ago, CleverNickname said:

    What are folks thinking re extracurriculars? My kids have been doing piano lessons by zoom. But latest Travis County guidance is no gatherings > 10. I guess that means no soccer, scouts, etc.

    May try to find tennis lessons or something.  Is there such a thing a cross country practice/clubs for 5th grader?

    Recreational sports for children are excluded from the orders.  Our kids have been doing 3x3 soccer.   

  14. 48 minutes ago, Blotto said:

    I would presume that the more success companies like Moderna, Pfizer, Astrozenica etc...have in  phase II and phase III trials (ALT has yet to start a phase I trial) the need for ALT to develop a vaccine diminishes.

    I agree with your takes; however I do think that ALT's vax has some unique properties that would bring incremental value even if they are not first, second, or even third to market.  Namely nasal administration, and room temp stability.  Unique benefits for wide administration and distribution, esp in third world countries.  Probably not as much money to be made in those healthcare systems compared to the united states.  But if this thing becomes endemic or immunity is not long lived, and we are not just talking about one wave of immunization, we are talking about multiple waves of immunization and perhaps something that looks like influenza yearly vaccination.  

    Wouldn't touch it at current levels, but if there is a substantial pull back as MRNA, PFE, and AZ come to market, might be worth a flier if the clinical data on those vax suggest we might not be able to wipe this out completely.  

    • Like 1
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