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bluto

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by bluto

  1. In a full field this has trump winning women by .6 and Kamala only winning burbs by .4
  2. That same guy Pruser is modeling az/nv to be steep and daunting hills for dems.
  3. …The state will provide four additional absentee return reports (Friday, Monday, Tuesday x2), and the trend remains the same. Both parties are in line to return ballots at nearly the same rate, and with the surge of Republican requests down the stretch, a revision from a Dem +480k expected lead in absentee returns must be revised down to Dem +430k. Absentee requests are now closed (except for in-person absentee ballots cast in Bucks County), and the final Pennsylvania electorate is tracking toward an environment of D+1.5 - R+2.5. Slightly larger bands because so much of the vote comes on election day and presents more possibilities.
  4. Those ratings… one of those time slots is NOT like the others. 7-midnight has about the same rating. Geez
  5. Congrats on your dyslexia
  6. I’d venture a guess that the new Tx residents break maga by a solid 10-15 pts. That whole political self sorting hit hyper drive post covid.
  7. Whatever the number is almost assured to grow given Abbott kneecapping the judge overseeing the shitty system
  8. Seems it’d have to be a monster gop margin to take the nv seat based on polling. Again polling grain of salt but they have been consistent dem +4 at least across board
  9. Sushi is still waiting on the full market collapse and depression of 2009 as well
  10. The lack of Clark co mail is very strange given how much he considers it should be a given. Like there’s some kinda processing issue
  11. If you think he sounds like a cocksucker, realize the tarrant county head man Ohare who really does run shit might be an even bigger piece of shit.
  12. That’s my take away. Smithley had said 390k firewall in head to head and more like 500 rolling in indies. If more gop votes are burned early then seems like lower firewall needed. Nobody knows, but that’s why I propose we have presidential election ANNUALLY so we won’t have these potentials for swings like this, who’s with me!?! (Im keeeeding)
  13. This should be tempered a bit as Milwaukee had weekend voting while rural didn’t per the local nerd
  14. And Vance has zero natural or comedic charisma/timing that trump has that appeals to his nitwits. From Nevada
  15. Using 2020 as a baseline seems sketchy as shit.
  16. I have a feeling there are more than a few gop’rs who are still yanking that lever but are also deep down not disappointed with a Trump loss. Kinda like in the home stretch of Mack/chuck/tom where ya, we want Texas to win every game but a mountainside crash loss expedites moving on. And not having to look for survivors or wreckage vs an ocean crash. But again, they still don’t have the balls to actually yank the yoke themselves.
  17. His vp just said there’s no way of deciding who the good guys are in Ukraine/russia war
  18. how do you square up Vance just this week saying we don’t know who the good and bad guys are in the Russia/ukraine war
  19. Under no fuckin version of this simulation is joe fuckin Rogan voting for Harris over Trump.
  20. He didn’t say which side he was fighting for in ukraine.
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