Mookie Betts is an outlier. It’s not often that a player of his caliber at an age as young as he is (he turns 28 in October) is available for all 30 teams to sign on the open market. He has a strong case for being the second-best player in MLB behind Mike Trout, who also didn’t reach free agency before signing his two extensions with the Angels.
So in reality, that Betts landed a 12-year, $365-million mega extension with the Dodgers amid a pandemic and mere months from free agency speaks more to his rare combination of talent and youth than anything else. It might not be a sign of a stronger-than-expected market for the upcoming free agent class. It might just be Betts was so coveted that he would’ve gotten paid like this either way.
Still, Betts being off the board for the coming offseason does impact George Springer and the Astros. The question is to what extent?
Betts and Springer would have been in different tiers of free-agent players – Betts would’ve been in a tier of his own – but Springer is now the undisputed best outfielder in the 2020-21 free-agent class. The Astros center fielder looks in line to be one of the two best players available overall, with Phillies catcher J.T Realmuto being his competition atop the class. A’s shortstop Marcus Semien and Yankees second baseman DJ LeMahieu highlight the rest of the position player crop.
Unlike Betts, Springer, Realmuto, Semien and LeMahieu will each be 30 or older at the start of the 2021 season. Realmuto is the youngest of the four; he will turn 30 in March. Semien turns 30 in September, and LeMahieu just turned 32.
Springer will be 31 in September, meaning that he’s three years older than Betts. (They were both part of the loaded 2011 draft, but Springer was drafted out of college and Betts turned pro out of high school.) Springer debuted for the Astros in April 2014 and has racked up 25.4 WAR entering the 2020 season, according to Baseball-Reference. Betts debuted for the Red Sox in June 2014 and arrived at Opening Day 2020 with a career 41.8 WAR.
Clearly, the Dodgers are betting on Betts aging really well. With Springer, teams will have to weigh the same question. He’s an elite player who is coming off a career year that might’ve had him in the 2019 AL MVP Award conversation if not for a hamstring strain that cost him almost a month. But as a free agent he will also be on the wrong side of 30 in an era when data-driven front offices are averse to paying for past performance.
A five-year deal would take Springer through his age-35 season. He likely would’ve gotten at least that contract length if he had been a free agent last offseason, which he would have been had the Astros not manipulated his service time before his call-up to the majors in 2014. Now he’s facing a lot more uncertainty, as teams reckon with their financial losses in the wake of the pandemic. Jim Crane has said that because of the Astros’ financial success the previous few years he thinks they will be in a strong position to be aggressive. But the Astros owner also said last November the team would make a run at Gerrit Cole ahead of an offseason in which it spent relatively little.
This much is clear: addressing the outfield will have to be first-year general manager James Click’s top priority after the 2020 season. In addition to Springer, left fielder Michael Brantley and right fielder Josh Reddick will also be free agents. Not counting Yordan Alvarez, who is primarily a designated hitter, Kyle Tucker and Myles Straw are the only other outfielders on the Astros’ 40-man roster. If they don’t re-sign Springer, they’ll have to sign one of the other free-agent outfielders – Marcel Osuna, Joc Pederson, Jackie Bradley Jr., Brantley and Mark Canha are the best of the rest in the outfield class – or rebuild the position group via the trade market.
Betts’ extension does eliminate the Dodgers as a potential suitor for Springer and takes off the board a player whose free agency might’ve held up Springer’s market. Perhaps it is a reminder that the high-payroll teams, like the Astros have been since 2017, will still pay for top talent in free agency. But the obvious supply and demand implications aside – one fewer elite outfielder will be on the market, one fewer team will be in the market for an outfielder – it’s quite possible the Betts’ contract actually means little for Springer.