Huckleberry

What was the Dallas County early voting breakdown? Their site won't load for me. In 2020 it was 65.3-33.1 for Biden in early voting only.

My exact initial reaction. But I think light shading is just showing reported votes. Did some urban Texas county report their early voting results?

And if Georgia is going to be super tight it should be noted that the county Harris has improved by 3% in had 75-80% more 2020 voters than the county Trump is doing 3% better in.

Oh wait. @BamaATL is reporting the difference in a candidate's percentage of the vote from 2020 to 2024. That is a very confusing way to do it, sir.

Trump 66-33 in 2020 https://www.forsythco.com/Portals/0/DeptDoc/Voter/ElectionResults/2020_11_03/ElectionSummaryReportRPTOfficial_Complete.pdf?ver=2020-11-10-171546-330

I'm confused, I show Hall County as Trump 71-28 last time https://www.hallcounty.org/DocumentCenter/View/10146

Yeah I don't get that tweet either. As of 3pm Harris County is slightly ahead of 2020 election day's total. Same for Dallas and Tarrant. He is comparing 2024 at 3pm to 2020 final total election day numbers. I mean it seems like decent turnout to me. They've still got all 4 hours with all the after work voters to go if these updates were at 3pm. Again, we should expect the raw total numbers to be higher than 2020 because of COVID and a moderate voting population increase (about 7.5% in these counties) but they are on pace for higher numbers.

I've always assumed Texas stays R this election, but as of 3:05pm Harris County was reporting more than 200,000 voters from today. In 2020 the total number of election day ballots in the presidential race was 200,898. Now of course that was COVID year so a higher percentage voted early but there seem to be plenty of election day voters. I don't think there will be enough but I don't understand where the turnout comment above is coming from.

No I mean that there was no way everything went smoothly for a quick count. More important to get it right so fully support counting those over.

Of course they did.

We should DoorDash Chili's to that line.

I read it but the key is that I also understood it. I explained why self-descriptions of moderate, liberal, etc. are worthless using you as an example but I can't understand it for you. And yet again, two references to policy areas where Republicans have gone hard right but zero ability to come up with areas where Democrats have gone far left. You're doing a tremendous job of proving everyone else right.

Democrats have spent the last two decades enacting policies that were created by Republicans. The Democratic Party has actually moved right but you don't realize it because Republicans have lurched way way more right and you don't have any actual principles other than feeling comfy in the middle. So you've moved right, too, and now Democrats feel further away from you because don't realize what's happened.

Your retort to my comment that points out your feelings are silly and have no merit is to cite two sources that talk about feelings and not actual facts or policies. If you were a serious person you'd start to ask yourself why your position is based only on feelings and not real world policies and consequences.

"Sure the Republicans say fascist things and promise to enact fascist policies, but the Democrats call them fascists and so I'm just tired of both sides being so unreasonable."

You heard it straight from him, guys. @Js1 official prediction:

Shirt doesn't appear to refer to any candidate, ballot proposition, or party.

Should have just thrown a lit match at him.

Wait until they find out 10-12% of registered Republicans voted for Harris.

lol Nick Reid

Unfortunately we were and are that beacon whether we like it or not. Now maybe we didn't earn it but I can assure you there are many more foreigners who are watching to see what our results are today than there are for other nation's elections. The only question, the one we're waiting for the answer to, is "a beacon of what?"

Same here. My 70-year-old dad does it, it's time to have the Jimmy Carter talk with him for the next election. "If you die between the first day of early voting and election day that would suck."

I don't think anyone is, or at least should be, extremely confident in a win on either side. The reason for optimism on the Harris side, though, is the repeated and stubborn second level polling results. It seems like the vast majority of polls showing Trump leads did things like delete Philadelphia from their Pennsylvania likely voter screen, base their bottom line on a 77% white electorate in an area after it was 67% last time, etc. Meanwhile when you look at voter enthusiasm, polls of those who have already voted, female polling percentage combined with voter share, etc. it is all looking good for Harris. It reminds me of the blog post a long time ago that showed that Texas students scored higher on the SAT than Wisconsin students in every single demographic, but Wisconsin scored higher overall only because they had a much higher percentage of white students. Similarly, the only way the polls have been good for Trump the way the pollsters are claiming is if uneducated rural white people dominate the polling places. And that takes us right back to the voter enthusiasm environment. But, again, we don't know shit about fuck because it's all poll-based. But the reason for optimism is that the human pollsters are claiming a horserace after massaging the data, but the data itself is showing a probable Harris victory. After the pollsters have significantly underestimate D success in every election since Dobbs.

Yes, about 6 votes from Dixville Notch, NH will be announced shortly after midnight eastern. It doesn't mean anything but it's a little Election Day tradition.

Look, I'm not a fan of it in terms I wish none of this stuff would happen. But if they riot again the easy solution is to Ashli Babbitt someone much more quickly this time. Once that happened they figured shit out real fast. I'm pretty confident this will happen on January 6th, 2025 because they're already designating it a national security event. The question is if they'll react accordingly in other locations on other dates. If you want to attempt a coup then you are risking your life. Make that clear, and make it clear very early on. That's how this is handled quickly.