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Huckleberry

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Everything posted by Huckleberry

  1. Huckleberry
    In late October they published a Biden 51-46 national poll
  2. Huckleberry
    This part will be easier when it's just girl talk after your involuntary surgery.
  3. Huckleberry
    *Saving
  4. Huckleberry
    Username checks out
  5. Huckleberry
    Yeah I'm not sure if mine is being interpreted as bad news but it isn't. In fact the last few days have seen more of a slowdown the redder the county is. This very well may be the election day vote cannibalization that has been discussed.
  6. Huckleberry
  7. Huckleberry
    The difficult part is we know that the big sort (migration) and party realignment (primarily education level based) are happening but we can't know relative impacts until actual results come in. That's where the not knowing shit about fuck comes from. Which one has a bigger impact on Pennsylvania for example? They have a large population of uneducated white people in the western half of the state, but they are also losing more Republican voters to migration. Add to all of this that party registration lags realignment, it doesn't lead.
  8. Huckleberry
    It's in the we don't know shit about fuck pile. The 2020 and 2024 elections are going to have different early versus election day voting profiles for the one big obvious reason. Before COVID, Democrats voted on election day and Republicans voted early (generally speaking those were their preferences). How much are we moving back toward that in 2024? Nobody knows. I will say that the movement isn't huge but the more rural counties out of the top 15 counties in Texas are losing steam faster than the urban ones the last few days. Everyone is, but there used to be 4 counties ahead of their compressed 2020 EV rate and 3 of them were Trump counties in 2020. Now there is only one.
  9. Huckleberry
    Sir, you're on a Texas-based board and you're going to have to stop worrying about other fanbases for a while. Your team just won the World Series.
  10. Huckleberry
    I swear to the baseball gods that if there is no opposing fan with a sign saying COVER FIRST TODAY TOMORROW FOREVER at Cole's first start next season I will riot. Hell, Yankees fans should have them, too. If I were one of them tweeters that would be a good one tonight.
  11. Huckleberry
  12. Huckleberry
    Congrats to @Sbbruin and the Dodgers. What an epic choke job by the Yankees tonight.
  13. Huckleberry
    So their big takeaway is that in consecutive midterm elections each party did better when they weren't in the White House. How insightful.
  14. Huckleberry
    I think Cole misinterpreted Rizzo holding his glove hand way out when setting up to field the ground ball. 100% still should have covered and is his fault, but I think that's why he screwed up.
  15. Huckleberry
    Sort of. I sent him back a more conservative version that dampens the trends. It has Harris at 46.3% of the vote. Of course his county percentages are based on early voting turnout but using full election vote shares from 2020. I don't think there's a better way to do it, though, considering that reasonable people expect the early versus election day voting split to be 2022ish, not 2020ish. Just saw that poll that said 50% plan to vote on Election Day versus 37% in 2020.
  16. Huckleberry
    Because pollsters believe that completely discarding them is what made their product suck in 2016. So as is human nature they are overcorrecting and counting them all as Trump votes.
  17. Huckleberry
    Okay, that's a linear trend then. I think it will overstate the vote trends for this election but it's not a bad calculation to look at. With another step it might be better. If you used FORECAST on the difference in vote shares instead of on the vote shares themselves and then added that estimated 2020-2024 difference to the 2020 vote share it would be a better reflection, I would think off the top of my head. As an example, if a county went 40% Obama, 42% Clinton, 43.5% Biden then FORECAST on the vote shares themselves will give you 45.3% Harris. But if you run FORECAST on the deltas (2%, 1.5%) then it will of course estimate a 1% delta this election, and you will have a prediction of 44.5% Harris in this election. Of course this also has risks for counties that reversed trends. So probably not worth the effort for message board posting.
  18. Huckleberry
    I was actually going to look into doing something like this so I appreciate what you're doing. What did you use as a factor for the trend continuation? For example, if a county went 40% Clinton then 42% Biden are you saying 44% this year or are you continuing but dampening the trend? I would want to look at historical info but without enough time to devote to it, my first instinct would be to cut the last 4 year difference in half so call the estimate for the above hypothetical county 45% Harris this year instead of 46%.
  19. Huckleberry
    Yeah Titus County sticks out like crazy. They only have one early voting location which I'm sure doesn't help but that's probably not that unusual.
  20. Huckleberry
    Drop from Monday but that is fairly standard. Every election since 2016 has seen it on the second Tuesday. My prediction is that the idiots who wait until this Friday will regret it even more than usual because Thursday will be light due to Halloween.
  21. Huckleberry
    I think I can now add this to my list of Longhorn internet phrase creations f the haters, Greg Davis is Not Our Standard, caterwauling vagina, and nobody knows shit about fuck as it specifically pertains to this election
  22. Huckleberry
    Modern poll response is tilted towards the loudest and most fanatic voters. Who else is likely to waste time responding to a poll? Response rates are terrible as @quigley has discussed; polls are basically calling 25-50 people on average until someone finally decides to respond to a political poll. In 2016 #ImWithHer or whatever was a loud movement and there weren't as many fervent MAGAts as there are now. In 2024 Trumpers have more loud and obnoxious supporters and the people who are tired of all the shit will break for Harris. That's one theory anyway.
  23. Huckleberry
    Well he doesn't say exit polls from where. Maybe it's BS, maybe it's San Francisco County.
  24. Huckleberry
    I'm trying to figure out what I think an appropriate sentence for intentional mass destruction of ballots is. 5 years minimum time served is the lowest I'll go. Absolutely have to miss a full election cycle. But part of me thinks 2-4 years per ballot destroyed is fair. Served consecutively because fuck that. But sure, parole eligibility in 5 years still I guess.
  25. Huckleberry
    He's talking about Ohio I think

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