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Posts posted by Huckleberry
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The 538 live odds seem to fluctuate a bit. Looking good for Republicans, but I went back to their main election page and it said 53% chance for Democrats to control the House, then reloaded to make sure I had the latest data and it said Democrats had a 61% chance to control the house.
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Just now, used2b said:
Where are you getting the county results? Texas SOS website is slow.
Straight from county websites.
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Williamson County early voting results:
That's a big lead in non straight ticket voters for O'Rourke. O'Rourke got 39,814 votes from non Democrat straight ticket voters, Cruz got 25,661 from non GOP straight ticket voters.
Of course suburbia was supposed to be good for O'Rourke relative to previous Texas elections.
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2018 has now passed 2016 for Election Day voter check-ins in Travis County for the first time. Total voter check-ins through 6:00pm:
2016 - 95,641
2018 - 96,509 -
Damn, I thought I was in the gameday thread. Yes, constant updates shouldn't be in here.
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This thread is going to be pretty funny. Updates on each election as the next 1% reports.
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Every polling place should have a worker with Google translate on their phone.Just helped a woman in Santa Fe who couldn't operate the voting machines and spoke only Spanish at a precinct that didn't have any Spanish-speaking poll workers. So she's going to vote, and she wouldn't have been able to otherwise.
Feels good, man--feels good. -
Totals through 5:00pm:
2016 - 88,074
2018 - 87,422 -
4 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:
First instinct is to attribute North Dakota to the oil boom but the boom maxed out in 2013 or so, right?
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1 minute ago, Js1 said:
CNN says first wave has Trump approval -11 (44-55)
They released a poll yesterday that had it 39-55 heading into the election. That 44-55 isn't actually good news for Democrats relative to expectations.
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There is little to no rhyme or reason on the patterns.
Totals through 4:00pm:
2016 - 79,702
2018 - 78,456 -
I know, First Amendment, but releasing exit poll data before polls close just isn't right.First exit polls incoming! Gird your loins time. -
If turnout continues like this throughout Texas I will have to modify my Cruz by 4-6% prediction to Cruz by 3-5%.
I know, I'm a wild man. -
It's essentially a game thread that's been around for over 7 months, and now it's gameday. Of course the thread is going to turn to shit.
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1 minute ago, 'stache said:
When Georgia's voter suppression is proven they should be kicked out of the fucking union. Cut them off with Florida and let them sink into the ocean.
I've got some oceanfront property in Chatt...a...noo...ga
From my front porch you can seeeeeeeeeee the sea -
Totals through 3:00pm:
2016 - 72,093
2018 - 71,032- 1
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1 minute ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:
538 still projects Texas as only 6.7MM voters, worst rate of all the states with governor races? Is that right? (do your own formatting.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2018-election-results-coverage/?ex_cid=extra_banner
That seems crazy low. I don't see any way Texas total turnout is under 7 million.
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2 minutes ago, Rimbo said:
And if you don't agree with that, then why are you supporting him?
Generally speaking (i.e., not specific to Johnny Sack but very possibly inclusive of him), it's because they believe that their personal net income will be higher under Trump.
Nothing else matters beyond personal finances.
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Just now, Rimbo said:
What's wrong with you? Why do you feel the need to support people who have made it their goal to pull families apart?
Johnny Sack comes from a world where if you don't do anything wrong then law enforcement won't bother you. It's not a world that most people live in. It's not his fault he doesn't have others' life experiences, but it is his fault that he willfully chooses not to consider others' life experiences.
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6 minutes ago, NIUHuskies said:
Not sure if this got posted:
6 minutes ago, horncyclist said:Any comparison to 2016?
2 minutes ago, NIUHuskies said:122,692 day of
475,999 EV
Based on those numbers, looks like Bexar is going to be a county where 2018 early voting affected election day turnout. They're on pace for about 100K election day votes.
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6 minutes ago, sushihorn said:
Man I guess thinking people might be interested in the EV from Cali or changes in registration in TX is just vicious partisanship in your mind. What the hell happened to you man?
You seem defensive. It's not vicious partisanship, it's a bias in the information you post. Every time data comes in that is good news for Republicans (e.g., party ID among early voters), you post it. Every time data comes in that is good news for Democrats (e.g, increase in voter share for younger voters), you don't post it. Nobody is saying it's vicious partisanship, it's more actively searching for confirmation bias opportunities. A good analyst like you should be able to self-scout, so to speak, and recognize these behaviors. It's something everyone has to fight, so you really don't need to take it so personally.
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More long lunches in 2018, way more late work arrivals in 2016.
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No, I didn't miss it. I was commenting on your overall posting behavior. No big deal, you definitely get a lot of credit for not just pulling numbers out of your ass like RayDog does.
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I'm thinking in 2016 they tweeted out actually cast ballot numbers versus their chart and 2018 reports which are voter check-ins, so there's a lag to casting a ballot? But it shouldn't be that big of a difference. You check in right before you vote, right? There's a line to check in then a much shorter line to vote.
2018 midterm gameday thread
in Cloak Room
Posted
Yes, O'Rourke and Hegar won the early voting. That is all that has been reported from there.