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Huckleberry

Certifiably Surly
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Posts posted by Huckleberry

  1. The 538 live odds seem to fluctuate a bit. Looking good for Republicans, but I went back to their main election page and it said 53% chance for Democrats to control the House, then reloaded to make sure I had the latest data and it said Democrats had a 61% chance to control the house.

  2. Williamson County early voting results:

    image.png

    That's a big lead in non straight ticket voters for O'Rourke. O'Rourke got 39,814 votes from non Democrat straight ticket voters, Cruz got 25,661 from non GOP straight ticket voters.

    Of course suburbia was supposed to be good for O'Rourke relative to previous Texas elections.

  3. Just helped a woman in Santa Fe who couldn't operate the voting machines and spoke only Spanish at a precinct that didn't have any Spanish-speaking poll workers.  So she's going to vote, and she wouldn't have been able to otherwise.
    Feels good, man--feels good.
    Every polling place should have a worker with Google translate on their phone.
  4. 1 minute ago, 'stache said:

    When Georgia's voter suppression is proven they should be kicked out of the fucking union.  Cut them off with Florida and let them sink into the ocean.

    I've got some oceanfront property in Chatt...a...noo...ga
    From my front porch you can seeeeeeeeeee the sea

  5. 2 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

    And if you don't agree with that, then why are you supporting him?

    Generally speaking (i.e., not specific to Johnny Sack but very possibly inclusive of him), it's because they believe that their personal net income will be higher under Trump.

    Nothing else matters beyond personal finances.

  6. Just now, Rimbo said:

    What's wrong with you? Why do you feel the need to support people who have made it their goal to pull families apart?

    Johnny Sack comes from a world where if you don't do anything wrong then law enforcement won't bother you. It's not a world that most people live in. It's not his fault he doesn't have others' life experiences, but it is his fault that he willfully chooses not to consider others' life experiences.

    • Like 3
  7. 6 minutes ago, NIUHuskies said:

    Not sure if this got posted:
     

     

     

    6 minutes ago, horncyclist said:

    Any comparison to 2016?

     

    2 minutes ago, NIUHuskies said:
    
    122,692 day of
    
    
    
    475,999 EV

    Based on those numbers, looks like Bexar is going to be a county where 2018 early voting affected election day turnout. They're on pace for about 100K election day votes.

  8. 6 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

    Man I guess thinking people might be interested in the EV from Cali or changes in registration in TX is just vicious partisanship in your mind.  What the hell happened to you man?

    You seem defensive. It's not vicious partisanship, it's a bias in the information you post. Every time data comes in that is good news for Republicans (e.g., party ID among early voters), you post it. Every time data comes in that is good news for Democrats (e.g, increase in voter share for younger voters), you don't post it. Nobody is saying it's vicious partisanship, it's more actively searching for confirmation bias opportunities. A good analyst like you should be able to self-scout, so to speak, and recognize these behaviors. It's something everyone has to fight, so you really don't need to take it so personally.

    • Like 2
  9. image.png

    I'm thinking in 2016 they tweeted out actually cast ballot numbers versus their chart and 2018 reports which are voter check-ins, so there's a lag to casting a ballot? But it shouldn't be that big of a difference. You check in right before you vote, right? There's a line to check in then a much shorter line to vote.

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