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Huckleberry

Certifiably Surly
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Posts posted by Huckleberry

  1. Gimme a break with this “ We work 80 hours a week and can’t get to the polls” nonsense.
    You're such a fucking idiot sometimes.

    Believe it or not, there are a lot of people who work 80 hours per week. Of course you don't give a shit about anyone but yourself so this post makes sense.
    • Like 4
  2. My mother will be studied by historians as the lone Trump-Beto voter. The weird thing is that she still won't get off the Trump wagon. She just wants Cruz gone. She isn't informed enough to know about the primary infighting in any substantive way, so it isn't a Trump loyalty thing. I have no idea what is driving it but I will take it.
    Your mom wants to have sex with Beto. Just sayin'.
  3. 8 minutes ago, tjhooker said:

    Reagan

    Hahaha. You're over on other threads pretending to be a proponent of small government and you said Reagan.

    Hahaha.

    Hahahahahahahahahaha.

    Since World War II ended, two Presidents have seen the budget deficit surpass 5% of GDP. Barack Obama and, wait for it, Ronald Reagan. You are a doofus.

    • Like 4
  4. I really DGMOAF, but there was pretty longstanding decorum in the CR of not negging.
    That's a stupid idea.

    Reality is that there should be zero positive rep in the political forum, but until that happens negs are needed to counterbalance. Otherwise even admitted trolls can't be booted.
  5. 37 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

    That’s your opinion, I suppose.  We’ll just have to agree to disagree. 

    No, we don't have to agree to disagree. We can continue to point out examples showing that your "opinion" is demonstrably incorrect. You are either unwilling or unable to post examples supporting your position. I lean toward unable, of course.

    The Republican Party supports state-based solutions to just as many issues as the Democratic Party does.

    • Like 1
  6. Of course politicians on both sides would like to use government for their means to some extent. I find it to be more extreme on the Left. 

    You find it to be more extreme because you disagree with the specific uses they want. You are only lying to yourself when you say the quantity of those uses are more extreme on the other side. You live in a happy fantasy you've created for yourself.

     

    • Like 4
  7. 22 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

     

    I knew there would be counter examples, but I said generally. That’s why I thought this was a pointless exercise. @RPM

    Well sure it's a pointless exercise if you're unable to come up with counterarguments. You want to just say "generally Republicans are against state-based solutions" and have people accept that it's true. Reality says it isn't.

    Generally speaking, Republicans are 100% in favor of state-based solutions.

    Right now the ads that Republican candidates and pro-Republican PACs are running are almost exclusively about:

    MS-13 IS GOING TO KILL US ALL AND THE GOP WILL STOP THEM! (through state-based solutions)
    LIBERALS WANT OPEN BORDERS BUT WE WILL PROTECT OUR BORDERS! (through state-based solutions including eminent domain land grabs from private land owners near the border)
    NANCY PELOSI AND THE DEMOCRATS ARE TRYING TO UNLEASH ANGRY MOBS ON US BUT WE WILL STOP THEM! (through state-based solutions)
    THOSE DIRTY DEMOCRATS ARE IN FAVOR OF PLAYERS WHO KNEEL DURING THE ANTHEM! (worship the state or else)

  8. 4 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

    People on the Left generally see the state as the solution for most problems.  People on the right, much less so.  

    We're not talking about people on the right, we're talking about the Republican Party. That appears to be the disconnect.

    I don't even need to get into the fact that "people on the right" want state solutions for things like marriage definition, bathroom usage, etc.

  9. Just now, GRHorn said:

    They generally favor less government intrusion in the average American’s day to day life.  

    They favor the individual over the state  

    That’ll do for now on a very surface level. 

    Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

    Oh, wait. When you say average American you mean white, straight, Christian Americans. So at least that one makes sense from that perspective.

    The second one I left in there makes zero sense from any perspective.

    • Like 2
  10. Because that guy is paying money to the union so they'll defend him.
    Why don't defense lawyers ever just say "look, my client's rights may have been violated and the search may have been unconstitutional and he may have been beaten during his interrogation and only confessed during a waterboard session and may be totally innocent of these charges but he did something else illegal so he deserves to go to jail"?
    • Haha 1
  11. Well, we killed the oldest living tree in the name of science. To be fair, they didn't know it was the oldest tree until they killed it.
    https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/how-one-man-accidentally-killed-the-oldest-tree-ever-125764872/
     
     
    This reminds me of something near the entrance to a Redwoods park in the Bay Area that I've forgotten the name of. There was a tree rings display that had years and major historical events listed going back in time toward the center of the piece. So if you started reading from the center you'd go forward in time until you got to basically the last ring. There was a note there that said "_____ Park Opens."

    Made me chuckle. People are dicks.
  12. Early this week I was listening to a reporter covering the Texas Senate race explain how there’s a weird phenomenon going on with white evangelical women breaking for Beto because he’s more Christ-like in his values and message.
    She said she couldn’t quantify how widespread it was but it’s there and noticeable.
     
    lulz

    White evangelical women who voted for Trump but are breaking toward O'Rourke are doing it because he's more attractive than Cruz, not because he's more Christ-like in his message. The latter explanation is just how they save face with family and reporters.
    • Like 2
  13. That is hard to believe unless Cruz is inherently more popular than Trump in Texas.
     


    I think this may actually be a factor. Trump pulled a much lower percentage in Texas than other recent GOP Presidential candidates. Cruz isn't popular nationally but in Texas he's just the Republican Senator guy.

    It may be a joke on the boards but Cruz is going to get the vast majority of Johnson voters as well as McMullin voters. As I've mentioned elsewhere I know several staunchly Republican Mormon families who absolutely hate Trump and voted McMullin. They will vote for Cruz.
  14. yeah something is not right with the way you're looking at it. there is no way Beto is underperforming against any previous metric.
    Right, the disclaimer is that I'm using previous final results, not early results. If that guy made available the same breakdowns after Day 3 of early voting for past elections we could do some real analysis.
  15. 6 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

    Given that next to no one votes in dem primaries in Texas, that actually doesn't sound that bad for O'Rourke. 

     

    4 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

    I hate you for giving me another way to look at it.

    Still not looking good for O'Rourke. These counties actually had more 2018 Democratic primary voters than Republican primary voters by a 52%-48% margin, so he's also underperforming against that mark so far. The real analysis would require having these same numbers for previous early voting periods but I don't have that.

  16. 1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

    Given that next to no one votes in dem primaries in Texas, that actually doesn't sound that bad for O'Rourke. 

    I hate you for giving me another way to look at it.

  17. 2 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

    How do you get 4%? If it is percentage of total early voters who have never voted, I'd expect it to be 8/500 = 1.6%. If it is percentage of under 20 early voters who have no primary history, I'd expect it to be 8/10 = 80%. I'm clearly not understanding you or this chart.  

    Yeah, I screwed that up. 1.6% is correct, point being that it's higher than the 90+ orange bar.

  18. 39 minutes ago, elfenix said:

    "of people who have never voted in a primary AND are early voting, X% of them are between the age of ___ and ___" is a different set of data than "of people who are early voting, Y% of them are between the age of ___ and ___."  there's lots of people in their 20s and 30s who've never voted in a primary, and that figure should trend downhill with age.  which is what the graph illustrates.

     

     

    edit: here's another of his charts, he's looking at (it appears) all history.

    so the orange bar in the first graph should be the people in the green and yellow bars here

    (i'm kind of amazed at how few people have only voted in one party's primary)

    This also looks better for Cruz than O'Rourke. Clinton won these counties 54.5% to 45.5% in 2016. If we assign the only one party primary and mixed primary but last primary in that party voters to each candidate, then currently Cruz leads O'Rourke 50.4%-49.6% in these early vote totals out of voters with a primary history. In order for O'Rourke to outpace Clinton in these counties he would need the voters with no primary history to break in his favor 66%-34% over Cruz.

    There is obviously a lot more to it than that, of course.

  19. 8 minutes ago, elfenix said:

    "of people who have never voted in a primary AND are early voting, X% of them are between the age of ___ and ___" is a different (smaller) set of data than "of people who are early voting, Y% of them are between the age of ___ and ___."  there's lots of people in their 20s and 30s who've never voted in a primary, and that figure should trend downhill with age.

    Correct. Let's say there have been 1000 early voters. Of those early voters, 10 are under 20 and 20 are 90+.

    Now imagine that 500 of these voters have never voted in a primary before. 8 of the under 20 voters have not, and 5 of the 90+ voters have not.

    That means that in the green set the under 20 bar will be 1% and the 90+ bar will be 2%. In the orange set the under 20 bar will be 4% and the 90+ bar will be 1%.

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