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Huckleberry

Certifiably Surly
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Posts posted by Huckleberry

  1. 14 hours ago, ajax said:

    Brie Larson making a play for Tessa Thompson. Oh Brie - Tessa is way too hot for your plain ass. But it'll be funny to see the MCU go full on lesbo.

    Tessa Thompson isn't too hot for anyone. She did do a much better job in her MCU role than Larson, sure, but let's not get crazy. And that's despite the fact Ragnarok wasn't that good.

    • Like 1
  2. 15 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

    As noted in the article, two issues here.  One, it's a bad look and two a possible bail conditions violation.  So now everybody's "haha, stupid bitch, throw her in jail for violating her bail."

    But hold up.  Bail and pretrial detention serve the primary purpose of securing a defendant's appearance at trial.  The second purpose may be to detain someone thought to be a danger to society.  There cannot and should not be any element of punishment in bail/detention decisions, unless a failed attempt to flee the jurisdiction is proven (and that is really an entirely separate crime).

    Remember, in our system, the defendant is innocent until proven guilty and a defendant under bail or in pretrial detention is, emphatically, innocent.

    So, to me, it is really problematic to detain her pending trial for this.  Now, is some punishment in order for ignoring court orders?  Probably yes, but also probably far short of detention, or detention for more than a few days or weeks.  A fine or a GPS monitor or a curfew or something is probably more appropriate.

    Now, before someone jumps my shit for defending Amber Guyger, this is a general statement of how I think things should play out for defendants pre-trial, not a commentary on the actions of Amber Guyger.

    Our criminal justice system is FUBAR.  In our gusto for seeing justice (more accurately retribution and punishment, justice aint got shit to do with it) for certain defendants, we entirely lose sight of the fact that for every shithead defendant that deserves "justice," there are a hundred thousand other defendants being ground to dust in our system.

     

     

    On the one hand I completely agree with that take, on the other what she specifically did demonstrates a willingness and ability to ignore her bail conditions and leave the country. I'm fine with no jail time for it but I think the judge needs to personally observe her surrendering her passport.

    However, on a a re-read of that piece it looks like it's possible the cruise was before she was indicted. If that's the case then all it really should be is an extremely damning piece of evidence at trial regarding her callous disregard for Jean's life.

    • Like 2
  3. In the long run it won't be much and they'll stay in the mid-3000s. I think a lot of it has to do with Bridgeland having a pretty large percentage of their well-to-do supportive parents who give money and finely trained athletes to the program, though.

    Forgot to mention that Bridgeland High is also taking the Fairfield area into its school attendance boundaries.

  4. 2 hours ago, Liquor and Poker said:

    Every ten years this case gets “solved” again.  Always a different guy.  One time it was the king’s son or some such.  One time it was a prominent surgeon. Once it was a powerful MP.  Now it’s Sweeney Todd.  

    It’s a “notice me”/bookselling scam like Roswell and “who built the pyramids?”

    At this point I’m going to write a book detailing how a cult made up of the king’s son, a prominent MP, a surgeon, an artist, and a barber did the murders together then drew the Nazca lines while hiding the Ark of the Covenant. 

    Would sell 50,000 copies, minimum, if written well.

  5. Huckleberry - 79.22
    HornOnTheBayou - 73.77
    Goo Punch - 61.14
    Jack Straw - 59.44
    BigOrange1 - 59.11
    Bartles - 56.58
    IPoopOnWhoop - 51.89
    Capn81 - 46.46

     

    1. Auburn, 13.99 - Huckleberry
    2. Michigan St., 13.29 - HornOnTheBayou
    3. Maryland, 12.95 - Huckleberry
    4. Iowa St., 12.72 - Bartles
    5. Florida, 12.59 - Huckleberry
    6. Ohio St., 12.45 - Huckleberry
    7. Virginia Tech, 12.38 - HornOnTheBayou
    8. Purdue, 12.34 - Jack Straw
    9. Texas Tech, 12.29 - Capn81
    10. Louisville, 12.20 - BigOrange1
    11. Wisconsin, 12.07 - HornOnTheBayou
    12. Florida St., 11.80 - Bartles
    13. Iowa, 11.08 - Huckleberry
    14. Kansas, 10.96 - HornOnTheBayou
    15. St. Mary's, 10.87 - Goo Punch
    16. Tennessee, 10.87 - Capn81
    17. Mississippi St., 10.84 - Goo Punch
    18. Oregon, 10.73 - Goo Punch
    19. Buffalo, 10.69 - IPoopOnWhoop
    20. Nevada, 10.49 - Jack Straw
    21. Kentucky, 10.10 - HornOnTheBayou
    22. Marquette, 9.66 - Jack Straw
    23. Houston, 9.56 - Jack Straw
    24. Wofford, 9.35 - HornOnTheBayou
    25. Oklahoma, 9.26 - BigOrange1
    26. Syracuse, 8.86 - BigOrange1
    27. Seton Hall, 8.53 - BigOrange1
    28. Duke, 8.52 - Capn81
    29. Michigan, 8.50 - Bartles
    30. Virginia, 8.46 - Huckleberry
    31. Villanova, 8.39 - BigOrange1
    32. Gonzaga, 8.05 - IPoopOnWhoop
    33. Kansas St., 7.95 - Bartles
    34. LSU, 7.81 - Jack Straw
    35. Baylor, 7.67 - IPoopOnWhoop
    36. Arizona St./St. John's, 7.66 - Capn81
    37. Utah St., 7.61 - Goo Punch
    38. North Carolina, 7.39 - Bartles
    39. Cincinnati, 7.36 - Goo Punch
    40. Central Florida, 7.25 - BigOrange1
    41. Murray St., 7.18 - IPoopOnWhoop
    42. Washington, 6.95 - IPoopOnWhoop
    43. New Mexico St., 6.83 - Goo Punch
    44. Minnesota, 6.50 - Huckleberry
    45. Virginia Commonwealth, 6.46 - Goo Punch
    46. Mississippi, 6.01 - IPoopOnWhoop
    47. Belmont/Temple, 5.10 - IPoopOnWhoop
    48. UC-Irvine, 4.95 - Jack Straw
    49. Yale, 3.70 - BigOrange1
    50. Vermont, 3.62 - Bartles
    51. Saint Louis, 3.51 - Bartles
    52. Northeastern, 3.50 - Capn81
    53. Liberty, 3.09 - Capn81
    54. Northern Kentucky, 2.99 - HornOnTheBayou
    55. Georgia St., 2.63 - HornOnTheBayou
    56. Old Dominion, 2.34 - Jack Straw
    57. Montana, 2.28 - Jack Straw
    58. Abilene Christian, 1.19 - Huckleberry
    59. Colgate, 1.09 - Bartles
    60. Bradley, 0.92 - BigOrange1
    61. Fairleigh Dickinson/Prairie View A&M, 0.43 - Goo Punch
    62. Iona, 0.28 - Capn81
    63. North Carolina Central/North Dakota St., 0.24 - Capn81
    64. Gardner-Webb, 0.24 - IPoopOnWhoop
  6. 2 minutes ago, IPoopOnWhoop said:

    How many points typically wins this thing?

    Over 100

    1 minute ago, Goo Punch said:

    which teams are left?

    The two 16 seed play-in games.

    Fairleigh Dickinson/Prairie View A&M
    North Carolina Central/North Dakota St.
  7. Expected value, meaning that according to my ratings if the tournament were played a near infinite number of times that would be the average number of points the contest selections would score. Based on the EVs for each individual team in the tournament.

    But the tournament is only played once so things swing pretty wildly once we get going.

  8. By the way, this is what the EVs per team would be by first round pick position if the draft had gone chalk according to my ratings. This reinforces that draft order is basically irrelevant in this game.

    1 - 60.58
    2 - 60.08
    3 - 60.53
    4 - 60.85
    5 - 61.13
    6 - 61.01
    7 - 61.14
    8 - 62.28
    • Like 1
  9. For the record, Goo Punch is correct that the offered bet is a sucker's proposition. Goo Punch's EV on that bet would be a loss of $26.31. The structure of the bet favors the person on the "lose early" side of it in general regardless of team. More teams lose early than reach the final four, obviously.

    If Goo Punch took Duke with the exact same bet his expected value would be a profit of 35 cents. That is the only team in this tournament for whom it would a +EV.

    • Like 4
  10. 1 hour ago, Goo Punch said:

    Hell no. What an awful proposition. No fan of any school should ever take a bet like that. Ever. If Kansas fans did this every year they all be in debt. And that's Kansas. So no, of course I'm not going to take such a ridiculously one-sided prop.

    I love how stating the fact that Rick's teams generally play to their seed, or that he's made the EE every year he's been a 2 seed or better suddenly turns into the gauntlet being thrown down about this year's team, as if that has anything to do with the above facts. "Oh yeah! Well if you're so sure about that then put your money up!!" Okay. I'll bet you $100, or $1,000, or $10,000, or any amount of money that Rick Barnes has made the EE or better every time he's had a 2 seed or better. Sound good? I accept paypal, venmo, and the cash app.

    According to my ratings system, Tennessee has a 43.45% chance of making the Elite 8 against their draw.

    Very simple bet could be arranged. If Tennessee makes the Elite 8 then MotownHorn gives you $56.55, if they don't then you give him $43.45 (or that ratio at different specific amounts).

    Interestingly enough, ESPN's BPI gives Tennessee a 43.4% chance of making the Elite 8.

    http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi/_/view/tournament

  11. Available teams with 18 picks to go:

    Abilene Christian
    Arizona St./St. John's
    Baylor
    Bradley
    Colgate
    Fairleigh Dickinson/Prairie View A&M
    Gardner-Webb
    Georgia St.
    Iona
    Minnesota
    Montana
    North Carolina Central/North Dakota St.
    Northern Kentucky
    Oklahoma
    Old Dominion
    St. Louis
    Utah St.
    Virginia Commonwealth
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