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Huckleberry

Certifiably Surly
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Posts posted by Huckleberry

  1. A TE coach should generally be a recruiting rainmaker and earns his money on the road and recruiting all year long. The amount of time spent on his position group is far less, as you say, but they are usually busting their ass all over the state and country all year long.

    Or should be.

  2. Also, I've already solved this multiple times. 

    Obviously this topic comes up every four years, so here we are in 2016. In an effort to keep what could be a ridiculously long post as short as possible I will list some of the alternatives below, discussing each briefly, then conclude with the one I would favor most. This is intended to be a thought exercise where hopefully adult-type people can discuss things on a theoretical level and do so civilly. If you come into this thread and start any partisan shit then fuck you and stay out.

    A. Current system

    Nobody seems to like it all that much, but the people that really hate it are the ones that lose each election. I like the current system in one respect in that it is based on the idea that each State has an inherent value simply by being a member of the union but also reflects the idea that more heavily populated States reflect the will of a greater number of citizens. Detractors of the first part of that sentence like to say things like "land shouldn't have a vote" but I simply view that as far too dismissive of the idea that the nation is a union of distinct States. Those that are familiar with the political posts I've made over the years are well aware that I am a huge fan of the Federal concept in that I believe that the various States should be free to have far different laws on many topics because that presents American citizens with 50 choices of where they want to live. They can vote with their residence in such a system, and the voice of migration would over the long haul have a major say in laws and political developments.

    Why do I not like it? Because despite each State's ability to determine how they apportion the delegates the vast majority go with a winner-take-all approach and I simply don't like how that completely devalues votes in States that are solidly one party or the other. I think there is a happy medium in there somewhere.

    B. Straight popular vote

    Nonstarter for me because as noted above I like the fact that States have inherent value. Plus logistically at some point there will be a race so close that a recount is needed and all ballots nationwide will need to be transported to one location. Just an absurd visual. Plus then you raise the question of runoff elections if it's a straight popular vote considering that 17 times nobody has received more than 50% of the popular vote. Two-round systems are used in dozens of nations where a popular vote decides the chief executive.

    C. Electors assigned proportionally to popular vote

    This is just putting a different label on the straight popular vote. Basically holding on to the 538 electors simply for tradition's sake. Nah.

    D. Assign 2 electors to each State winner, the rest assigned proportionally

    This is an attempt to mimic the fact that the electors for each State represent their two Senators and their current Representative count. The reason I don't like this one is because it ignores the fact that Congress was actually set up so that bills must pass both the Senate and the House, so while the Senate is considered the upper chamber the fact remains that they are at least nominally equal in effecting laws. Which leads me to my two favorite options, one of which is I absolutely do not favor due to political realities.

    E. 2 electors assigned to each State winner, one elector assigned to the winner of each Congressional district

    This one gets to the heart of the people electing the President by speaking in place of their elected Congressmen. This would actually be great in a world where Congressional districts are drawn by computer based on population maps that are devoid of political or demographic information. But holy shit can you imagine the gerrymandering fights when each district helps decide the entire Executive branch instead of merely 1/535th of Congress? So it's a no-go for now. Which leaves me with...

    F. Half of a State's electors (rounded up for States with an odd number) to the winner, the remainder assigned proportionally

    The Senate being traditionally the upper chamber as mentioned, a State with an odd number of electors will assign the extra elector to the State winner. The remaining electors are assigned proportionally to the popular vote within the state. For example, in 2012 the Presidential results in Texas were

    Mitt Romney - 57.17%
    Barack Obama - 41.38%
    Other People - 1.45%

    In this system that would give Romney 19 electors for the State victory, then the remaining 19 would be assigned proportionally. Romney 10.86, Obama 7.86, Other People 0.28 which leaves us with Romney 11 and Obama 8. Romney takes the Texas electors 30-8 in that election instead of 38-0. Similarly California becomes Obama 44, Romney 10, Johnson 1 instead of Obama 55-0. Since I know people will wonder, the overall count in 2012 was originally 332-206 in favor of Obama, with this system it would have been Obama 303, Romney 234, Johnson 1.

    I'd be willing to calculate other elections if anyone's interested.

    Obviously this will never happen but I like it best so that means it's best.

  3. On 3/24/2019 at 10:16 AM, Hank Kingsley said:

    And there are a lot of disenfranchised Republican voters in NY and CA what would finally have a voice in a Presidential election. And Democrats in Texas. 

    Abolishing the electoral college isn't about getting a D in the White House. With a much higher voter turnout and a simple and fair path to victory, it will be easier to unify Americans.  And both parties will have to adjust their ideas/policies to benefit all of us. 

     

     

    Two posts later...

    On 3/24/2019 at 10:21 AM, Hank Kingsley said:

    When a Republican POTUS candidate wins the popular vote once in the last 30 years and we're stuck in the mess, yeah. Something needs to be done. 

    The electoral college made sense at one point. But Republican politicians have learned to game the system and destroyed its value. We have to adapt. 

     

    You shouldn't lie to yourself so blatantly. It's rude and you might get mad at yourself.

  4. Right back at you.  This seems to be a common defect with message board posters.
    Yeah, no. I don't have a position on the veracity of that report. If I had to guess I'd figure it's true that there's some communication going on but that it says nothing about whether or not he's genuinely interested in leaving Tech. It could simply be his agent doing his due diligence in making sure he's always aware of his client's market value.

    You have chosen to believe it's not true based simply on wanting that to be the case. But you're absolutely right that it's not uncommon.
  5. Poster - Win Probability (# Paths)
    Huckleberry - 50.97% (10,040)
    Jack Straw - 15.33% (7,326)
    HornOnTheBayou - 12.28% (4,015)
    Goo Punch - 10.07% (7,415)
    Capn81 - 7.10% (1,947)
    Bartles - 2.84% (1,630)
    Tie - 1.40% (395)
    IPoopOnWhoop - 0.00% (0)
    BigOrange1 - 0.00% (0)

    It turns out that IPoopOnWhoop has also been eliminated. There are 32,768 possible conclusions to the tournament from here forward, note that the win probability above is not the percentage of those paths that lead to a poster's win, but rather the combined probability that one of his win paths happens.

    As you can see, I am only a coin flip to win despite the most dominant position after the first weekend I can remember. I had an amazing four double digit seeds win their first game but all of them lost their second game.

  6. 19 minutes ago, HRSchenker said:

    This happened my senior year of high school and our principal told us it was because they worried about snipers outside who would pick each student off one by one and the surviving students would get blown up by the bomb.

    Even this absurdly overdramatic and fearful logic is dumb. So 100% of students die by bomb instead of some students surviving in a mad dash while a sniper fires at them?

  7. At this point in the tournament I start posting a different update based on overall contest winning probability. Problem is it has to calculate all the possible permutations that are left (which is why I don't do it at the beginning of the tournament, of course). I'm trying to automate it right now so we'll see how long it takes.

  8. After the first weekend:

    Poster, Current Score, EV
    Huckleberry, 65, 84.35
    Jack Straw, 40, 60.51
    HornOnTheBayou, 35, 59.29
    Capn81, 30, 50.67
    Goo Punch, 36, 49.39
    IPoopOnWhoop, 39, 45.41
    Bartles, 21, 39.00
    BigOrange1, 24, 24.00
  9. I think Iowa's failure to close out the comeback may actually sink me. Now all I have left are Auburn, Ohio State, and Virginia. I don't see the first two winning their next games and I don't see Virginia winning it all so they only have 12 total points they would win from here on out if they don't.

    Update through North Carolina's win:

    Poster, Current Score, EV
    Huckleberry, 63, 98.01
    Jack Straw, 34, 66.81
    HornOnTheBayou, 27, 59.61
    IPoopOnWhoop, 39, 53.75
    Capn81, 22, 48.53
    BigOrange1, 24, 40.44
    Bartles, 21, 39.88
    Goo Punch, 12, 39.05
  10. Through Saturday.

    Poster, Current Score, EV
    Huckleberry, 63, 111.91
    Jack Straw, 34, 68.23
    HornOnTheBayou, 27, 59.87
    IPoopOnWhoop, 39, 59.68
    Capn81, 18, 45.13
    BigOrange1, 24, 40.64
    Goo Punch, 12, 39.34
    Bartles, 19, 38.58

    Today's Matchups:

    #10 Iowa (10, 21.59, Huckleberry - 31.73%) vs. #2 Tennessee (2, 9.44, Capn81 - 68.27%)
    #9 Washington (9, 14.92, IPoopOnWhoop - 19.18%) vs. #1 North Carolina (1, 6.63, Bartles - 80.82%)
    #9 Central Florida (9, 14.82, BigOrange1 - 17.52%) vs. #1 Duke (1, 8.03, Capn81 - 82.48%)
    #6 Buffalo (6, 14.21, IPoopOnWhoop - 37.93%) vs. #3 Texas Tech (3, 11.72, Capn81 - 62.07%)
    #12 Liberty (12, 15.94, Capn81 - 13.90%) vs. #4 Virginia Tech (4, 18.21, HornOnTheBayou - 86.10%)
    #9 Oklahoma (9, 19.81, BigOrange1 - 23.16%) vs. #1 Virginia (1, 8.10, Huckleberry - 76.84%)
    #11 Ohio St. (11, 26.23, Huckleberry - 37.92%) vs. #3 Houston (3, 11.40, Jack Straw - 62.08%)
    #13 UC-Irvine (13, 23.57, Jack Straw - 33.47%) vs. #12 Oregon (12, 39.34, Goo Punch - 66.53%)
  11. Through the first round:

    Poster, Current Score, EV
    Huckleberry, 53, 135.16
    IPoopOnWhoop, 37, 77.43
    HornOnTheBayou, 19, 70.85
    Jack Straw, 22, 58.53
    BigOrange1, 24, 49.92
    Capn81, 18, 47.43
    Goo Punch, 12, 39.82
    Bartles, 7, 32.20

    Today's preview:

    #6 Maryland (6, 17.25, Huckleberry - 48.91%) vs. #3 LSU (3, 8.76, Jack Straw - 51.09%)
    #7 Wofford (7, 15.87, HornOnTheBayou - 31.70%) vs. #2 Kentucky (2, 10.47, HornOnTheBayou - 68.30%)
    #10 Florida (10, 22.50, Huckleberry - 31.35%) vs. #2 Michigan (2, 10.37, Bartles - 68.65%)
    #12 Murray St. (12, 22.21, IPoopOnWhoop - 29.82%) vs. #4 Florida St. (4, 14.89, Bartles - 70.18%)
    #9 Baylor (9, 16.39, IPoopOnWhoop - 19.57%) vs. #1 Gonzaga (1, 8.49, IPoopOnWhoop - 80.43%)
    #10 Minnesota (10, 18.99, Huckleberry - 23.70%) vs. #2 Michigan St. (2, 12.89, HornOnTheBayou - 76.30%)
    #6 Villanova (6, 14.57, BigOrange1 - 35.45%) vs. #3 Purdue (3, 13.85, Jack Straw - 64.55%)
    #5 Auburn (5, 18.28, Huckleberry - 52.72%) vs. #4 Kansas (4, 12.84, HornOnTheBayou - 47.28%)

    Above is the issue with my position. Just like some previous years I had a huge first round but it's not hard to envision losing every second round game. Suddenly a total of 53 isn't very impressive.

  12. And now we see why things weren't even close to over. We have a 12/13 second round matchup. Update through concluded games:

    Poster, Current Score, EV
    Huckleberry, 42, 119.16
    IPoopOnWhoop, 28, 68.47
    HornOnTheBayou, 15, 66.55
    Goo Punch, 12, 63.20
    Jack Straw, 19, 55.17
    Bartles, 6, 48.77
    BigOrange1, 15, 40.10
    Capn81, 5, 35.83

    Don't even need to worry about scores until after Sunday. Either Goo Punch or Jack Straw will move way up with the Oregon/UC-Irvine winner.

  13. In the middle of a TV session but I'm about to leave the office. Here is the update through the Virginia final:

    Poster, Current Score, EV
    Huckleberry, 42, 118.75
    HornOnTheBayou, 15, 81.16
    IPoopOnWhoop, 22, 62.90
    Jack Straw, 19, 51.37
    Bartles, 6, 48.82
    Capn81, 5, 44.10
    BigOrange1, 15, 38.92
    Goo Punch, 0, 38.56
  14. Forgot today's preview

     
    #10 Iowa (0, 11.53, Huckleberry - 50.72%) vs. #7 Cincinnati (0, 7.39, Goo Punch - 49.28%)
    #9 Oklahoma (0, 9.59, BigOrange1 - 54.65%) vs. #8 Mississippi (0, 6.01, IPoopOnWhoop - 45.35%)
    #14 Northern Kentucky (0, 3.01, HornOnTheBayou - 12.89%) vs. #3 Texas Tech (0, 11.93, Capn81 - 87.11%)
    #13 UC-Irvine (0, 4.97, Jack Straw - 25.35%) vs. #4 Kansas St. (0, 8.12, Bartles - 74.65%)
    #15 Colgate (0, 1.36, Bartles - 6.35%) vs. #2 Tennessee (0, 10.00, Capn81 - 93.65%)
    #16 Gardner-Webb (0, 0.26, IPoopOnWhoop - 1.25%) vs. #1 Virginia (0, 8.38, Huckleberry - 98.75%)
    #11 Arizona St. (0, 8.35, Capn81 - 37.88%) vs. #6 Buffalo (0, 9.92, IPoopOnWhoop - 62.12%)
    #12 Oregon (0, 10.92, Goo Punch - 35.02%) vs. #5 Wisconsin (0, 11.97, HornOnTheBayou - 64.98%)
    #9 Washington (0, 6.81, IPoopOnWhoop - 47.29%) vs. #8 Utah St. (0, 7.37, Goo Punch - 52.71%)
    #16 North Dakota St. (0, 0.30, Capn81 - 1.49%) vs. #1 Duke (0, 8.54, Capn81 - 98.51%)
    #14 Georgia St. (0, 2.54, HornOnTheBayou - 12.35%) vs. #3 Houston (0, 9.51, Jack Straw - 87.65%)
    #12 Liberty (0, 3.07, Capn81 - 17.81%) vs. #5 Mississippi St. (0, 11.12, Goo Punch - 82.19%)
    #16 Iona (0, 0.29, Capn81 - 1.52%) vs. #1 North Carolina (0, 7.04, Bartles - 98.48%)
    #9 Central Florida (0, 7.24, BigOrange1 - 48.89%) vs. #8 Virginia Commonwealth (0, 6.79, Goo Punch - 51.11%)
    #11 Ohio St. (0, 11.69, Huckleberry - 39.98%) vs. #6 Iowa St. (0, 12.77, Bartles - 60.02%)
    #13 Saint Louis (0, 3.66, Bartles - 16.78%) vs. #4 Virginia Tech (0, 12.41, HornOnTheBayou - 83.22%)
  15. 13 minutes ago, bigup2dahorns said:

    Our sources say in all 8 cases, the students used the Athletic Placement Services ... similar to the way Olivia Jade and Isabella gained admission. We're told there is one case where an alum "self-reported" -- meaning he contacted the university and blew the whistle on himself -- saying he cheated on the ACT test with the help of Singer. The alum played football and received a scholarship, even though we're told he did not meet the academic standards for athletes. We're told the university will not take action against the alum, in part because he self-reported.

    Right, the reason they're not taking action against him is because he self-reported. Hahaha.

  16. Poster, Current Score, EV
    Huckleberry, 31, 109.16
    HornOnTheBayou, 15, 81.56
    IPoopOnWhoop, 22, 70.02
    Bartles, 6, 58.56
    Goo Punch, 0, 43.60
    Capn81, 0, 42.49
    Jack Straw, 6, 36.95
    BigOrange1, 6, 31.14

    Not even close to over. I've led by more than this after the first day or two and never won. Even still possible for you to win but yeah you're in trouble. Might need one of LSU, Houston, and Purdue to win it all. Or else need two of them to make the Final Four probably.

  17. Through three sessions, or whatever they're called. 12 games.

    Poster, Current Score, EV
    Huckleberry, 31, 111.29
    HornOnTheBayou, 8, 74.60
    IPoopOnWhoop, 13, 59.56
    Bartles, 4, 58.35
    BigOrange1, 6, 48.84
    Goo Punch, 0, 43.34
    Capn81, 0, 42.53
    Jack Straw, 3, 39.83
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