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Huckleberry

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Huckleberry

  1. So we're just ignoring the part where Helobious has no idea what regression to the mean is?
  2. I have a theory for why it suddenly looks like that. It's because it was always that strong.
  3. That's not very surly of you. As I said, I was commenting on how you are ignored, not mocked
  4. To be fair it was more about how his post was ignored, not outright mockery. I stretched the analogy, one of my favorite pastimes.
  5. Late October 2032 - royiv casts his vote for Republican presidential nominee Kid Rock I kid, I kid.
  6. That Marist independent voters in swing states poll is what we're talking about when we say none of the talk of polls favoring Trump makes sense when you really look at it. If Harris is winning early voting independents 54-46 in swing states then it's over, she wins. We are seeing things return back to pre-COVID patterns where Rs are more likely to vote early. With Ds holding even or slightly ahead in early voting numbers in most swing states, if Harris is also easily winning independents then it's over. Obviously we can't be sure that poll is the one that's accurate but it just adds to the evidence that the polls don't make sense. That WSJ Trump +2 national poll is just absurd.
  7. I'm not above chips and salsa with a big ass margarita, sir.
  8. No, you vote on the screen, it prints out, then you run it through a scanner. The printed copy is actually what's counted.
  9. Washington Post link that quigley posted above
  10. Two main Cypress zip codes. Online obviously tilts Democratic so overall donations probably aren't like this but it's interesting.
  11. Update through D3. Looks like Day 1 was big and now we're settling into the 2016 pattern. D3 joins D2 in being more weighted to blue counties than D1 was. But these are only super slight gains. Poor turnout in Dallas and Bexar Counties are issues for Democrats.
  12. They need to flood Harris, Dallas, Bexar, and Travis Counties with a few great GOTV commercials. Something like the commercial @Bozo_Casanova posted earlier but with the woman saying "I didn't vote because I didn't think it mattered." Even better would be a couple with the man then saying "I didn't either, and for the same reason. And now I'm a man who didn't do everything I could to take care of my wife and child. Never again."
  13. May be? Sounds like they'll get around to figuring it out in a couple of years. Thanks, Merrick.
  14. It was but that doesn't work for Cloak Room satyanash so he left that part out.
  15. Haven't seen the tweet but this looks like you multiplied by .7 instead of .4
  16. Steepest D1 to D2 in-person drop we've seen. Overall the R counties dropped very very slightly more based on 2020 vote percentage weighting. Bad news for D hopes is that the 3 of the 4 counties ahead of their 2020 pace are R (Galveston, Denton, Brazoria with Cameron the only D). Good news is that the steepest early vote drop is Montgomery.
  17. Maybe the state but you know Wilco went for Biden, right?
  18. Sir, I don't post the 2010 style line graphs for my health.
  19. April 2021? Seems legit
  20. Top 15 counties Day 2 vote totals will be lower than Day 1 with Tarrant and Galveston still to report. That's fairly unusual, the only other time it happened since I've been tracking (starting in 2014) was 2018. Ted Cruz ruins everything.
  21. We should have just cited the precedent of Smart v. Van Buren and told the SEC we don't even remember any students throwing water bottles on the field. That's apparently a rock solid defense that the conference office can't figure out a way around.
  22. It is absolutely unreasonable. Any reasoned analysis would conclude that the current US approach to the Israel/Palestine conflict (which sucks, to be clear) is essentially SOP for this nation and that installing a pro-authoritarianism and anti-brown people head of state can only possibly make things worse. The blind spot isn't on the side you think it is in this situation. I don't agree with what some others have posted in that I'll still be saddened if Trump wins and he inevitably encourages Netanyahu to be even more ruthless. But if I were a Palestinian-American who voted for it to happen watching as it did, I think Rust Cohle's advice would probably go through my mind. And that would be more reasonable than having voted for it.
  23. Right I agree the sentiment is terrible but he didn't say he hopes it happens. And I'm with you, it's easy for me to say they're not being rational because I'm not the one with personal attachments to the people and the region. Their decision is understandable, but that's not the same thing as being reasonable. I won't insult this important topic by making a bad analogy, but everyone can come up with plenty of examples of something being understandable but not reasonable.
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