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Huckleberry

Certifiably Surly
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Posts posted by Huckleberry

  1. 22 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

    But...we haven't even played in a division since 2010.

    Yeah, that made me laugh. It's fucking ridiculous we haven't won a division since 2009. Somebody should be fired! How could we not have won the division a single time from 2011-2018?!?

  2. I see Nebraska football is still based on being okay with having shitheads on the team, too bad they don't have the wins to go along with it anymore.

    Quote

    An investigator on the case said the Sheriff’s Department has been unable to interview Washington during the months-long investigation after making requests through the University of Nebraska’s Athletic Department, as well as Washington’s former attorney, Jon Bruning, who is the former Attorney General of Nebraska.

    The investigator said Bruning questioned whether charges would actually be filed against his client when contacted last fall by the Sheriff’s Department.

    “The general air was, ‘Is this really as big of a deal as you’re making it?’” the investigator said. “I explained to him that we do take these cases very seriously. Cases like this can have severe consequences, especially for the victims, throughout their entire lives, and we were investigating wholeheartedly because of that fact.”

    Bruning, reached Friday by NBC Bay Area, declined to comment on the case.

    • Like 2
  3. I don't believe Connelly has any particular axe to grind against Texas, it's just that he feuds with Texas fans more than anyone else right now because of the disconnect between his system and Texas's big wins last season.

    The only biases I see come through in his writings are being defensive about his work (understandable and not even an issue) and being exuberant about anything that reflects positively on his alma mater Missouri. The latter bias is the only one that would seem like a problem in terms of objectivity but it's largely unavoidable and I haven't seen any evidence it causes any issues for his work's integrity.

  4. He lost dudes from a safety angle, at which he sucks. How do we know he sucks at man coverage, it's a totally different athletic endeavor. The guy can't track balls in the air so he's a liability in pass coverage at the safety position. For somebody who is so awesome at one aspect of the game he can't possibly be worse at standard man coverage than he is at safety coverage.

  5. On 2/8/2019 at 8:13 AM, South Austin said:

    Are you counting Mizzou and aggy in that 22-10 record?

    Hard to come up with a way where we haven't dominated the SEC unless you consider Vanderbilt the only SEC school.

    AllTime Texas Record Against:

    Current SEC Teams - 191-91-9 (.672 WPCT)
    Except TAMU and MU - 97-48-4 (.664 WPCT)
    Old 10 (remove South Carolina and Arkansas, too) - 41-25-4 (.614 WPCT)

  6. 2 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

    If you ascribe zero value to S&P+, then yes, they would be meaningless.  I think they have some value, although it's hard to say how much compared to other rating systems as I have not read any systematic study comparing them (as is occasionally done with ZiPS, Steamer, PECOTA, etc.).  However, from judging by this thread, the most valuable rating system is the one that predicts the best performance for your team of choice.  With that in mind, I would predict S&P+ has zero value on this board. 

    No, that's not what I mean at all. Connelly publishes his S&P+ because he thinks it better reflects actual team strengths than final scores. And, on the whole, I agree. He also publishes predictions versus the spread because he wants to show that there is a value in his system with respect to predicting future performance on the field. Therefore it's reasonable to wonder if he intends his preseason projections to predict performance on the field in the upcoming season. I would imagine that he does indeed feel like this is the case.

    And so that is a more realistic measuring stick for his projections than his own system's year-end rankings. Otherwise the entire effort is meaningless. Anyone can rank the teams any way they like, and if I say next year San Jose State is going to be the #20 team in the country according to my system and then my system says they're #20 at the end of the year do I get to claim that as proof my system projected the Spartans' team properly? I suppose, but both results are actually evidence that my system is bad.

  7. Just now, DanRydell said:

    IIRC, it's not actually modeled to predict against the spread but rather to predict win probabilities. I have no idea how well it performs at that (do teams predicted to win a game 70% of the time actually win roughly 70% of the time?) or how it compares to any other model at doing so.

    If that's the case then he should go with that, because I have found that Vegas moneylines are much softer than point spreads.

  8. 7 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

    His pre-season projections are designed to project S&P.  That's literally all they are meant to do.  They aren't intended or designed to project Texas' Dolphin, Hatch, J-Train, Junky's, Hamburgler, etc., rating.  Texas had a projected S&P+ entering 2018 of 27 and finished 32nd.  The year before their projected S&P+ was 16th and they finished 30th.  The year before that their projected S&P+ was 34th and they finished 36th.  So while the pre-season projected S&P+ has been fairly accurate over the past few years, but it generally overrates them a little.  

    So they're meaningless. What is the real world meaning behind them? If the only thing they're designed is to forecast S&P+ then they have zero value.

    • Like 1
  9. That's the other humorous thing, how defensive he gets in conversations. Saying that his system completely nailed the 2017 Texas team is silly. His preseason projection missed significantly not only compared to end-of-season polls and rankings, but also to his own system at the end of the year. The only place it was "nailed" was his second order wins which is just an ex post facto look at how likely the team who won was likely to win based on the stats.

    But of course that is basically meaningless. I could create a system much more accurate at such an analysis, takes about two seconds. Which team had more points at the end of the game? This system is 100%. His entire argument, which is completely valid, is that looking deeper than the final score is important when predicting future performance. But that has absolutely nothing to do with analyzing past performance. 

    His system did not completely nail Herman's 2016 and 2017 teams, that's simply false.

    • Like 1
  10. Made some changes. https://www.surlyhorns.com/board/index.php?/topic/7090-texas-roster-2019/&do=findComment&comment=906439
    • Whittington is going to play RB, given our dearth of options at the position right now.
    • All indications are that Epps will be at XWR, not TE, this season.
    • I think Bru will get a shot at HWR first in the LJH mold.
    • I have Floyd at Rover, but linebacker is totally up in the air. I also took Townsend off since it's pretty clear he's moving on in some form (participated in Senior Day).
    • Split the safeties into boundary, field, and joker positions. It's going to be interesting to see how the staff gets all of Sterns, Foster, Overshown, and Brandon Jones on the field.
    Didn't I read somewhere that Foster is getting a look at nickel?
  11. 2 minutes ago, satyanash said:

    Bill uses forced fumbles as part of his calculation for "Havoc Rate", so he definitely keeps track of it: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaadef

    Bill also mentions using forced fumbles and sack rates to calculate a team's expected turnovers in this article.

    Right, but my belief is that forced fumbles in those sentences really only means opponents' fumbles. 

  12. That's not "bad" against the spread, but it's still losing money. Let's put it this way, if Bill Connelly had developed a system that could beat the spread at a 55% rate consistently he would be an absolute fool to publish it.

    (52.4% is required to beat the standard -110 juice)

    In the interest of full disclosure my system beat the spread on high confidence games at over a 55% clip for two seasons about a decade ago. But for the last few seasons it is well south and right at the 50% mark. Being able to consistently hit that number would be incredible. We are talking really fine margins here when it comes to betting against the spread. It's not like 90% or even 70% is the target mark for excellence. There is a range from 52.38% where you lose money to 55% where you're filthy rich.

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