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Posts posted by Huckleberry
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3 minutes ago, Fozzz said:
I never said it was. I also don't think the latest iteration of S&P+ puts much emphasis at all on explosive plays, as evidenced by our offensive S&P+ being about the same as our marginal success rate in spite of an absolutely putrid IsoPP.
As I've said previously, you would think Herman's offensive system is built for dominating S&P+ given that it emphasizes efficiency (stringing together successive successful plays) rather than looking to create explosive plays while risking more negative plays. Herman's offensive system is the analytically "smart" thing to do given how noisy explosive plays are.
It's a give-and-take. Explosiveness helps when you screwed up first down and are facing second-and-long. But if you're still maintaining a high drive efficiency without explosiveness than that would imply that you do a good job of not screwing up first down as often as other teams.
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2 minutes ago, texifornia said:
So it's consistently coaches whose offenses rank better at drive efficiency (yards per possession) and turnovers than they do at explosiveness (yards per play). That makes perfect sense.
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4 minutes ago, Fozzz said:
If Herman possessed a magic ability skill to consistently outperform S&P+, you would expect it to show up more or less consistently, and not half the time. It would naturally fluctuate in degree, as all skills do, but you would expect some season-to-season consistency. I mean, if the magic skill comes and goes at random then it's not much of a skill is it? Maybe the magic skill is cyclical and we will need to wait until 2021 for it to make its presence known again. Maybe the right prayers will hasten its arrival, I'm not sure.
Every argument you make in that direction could be applied to Connelly's system when it is applied to a team which clearly focuses on drive efficiency versus explosive plays. Connelly has already modified his system once when he decided that he was placing too much emphasis on explosiveness when in reality it is merely a component of drive efficiency. Given his constant tinkering, which isn't a problem, why do you seem so convinced that his current model/system is the final and most accurate one?
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Just now, Machinator said:
He plans on making Whittington the wildcat QB.
DAMMIT
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It's the 5-wide wildcat, man. Perfectly legal.
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That seems to be the exact same percentage of the time that Connelly's magic works on Herman's team. Somehow for you 50% doesn't mean that Herman defies Connelly's system but 50% does mean that Connelly nails Herman's teams.
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Well obviously Herb Hand will know him well, so shouldn't be long before we know our relative interest.
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14 minutes ago, GRHorn said:
HenryJames is from Devine? I hear they have great meth there.
Let's just say the famous train wreck is only the second worst train wreck in Devine history.
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I have Texas A&M as #36 in adjusted times sacked per passing attempt last year. Oklahoma State is #75.
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22 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:
But...we haven't even played in a division since 2010.
Yeah, that made me laugh. It's fucking ridiculous we haven't won a division since 2009. Somebody should be fired! How could we not have won the division a single time from 2011-2018?!?
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1 minute ago, Not a Sock said:
You can not stop a possessed man on a Devine mission and sam was possessed by the spirits of past Bevos to run play 8 that night.
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2 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:
Gee I fucking wonder why.
Because he already has his own barbershop on the drag?
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I think he was saying these 4 posts could have gone in the overall 2019 thread to help with the shit posting.
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I see Nebraska football is still based on being okay with having shitheads on the team, too bad they don't have the wins to go along with it anymore.
QuoteAn investigator on the case said the Sheriff’s Department has been unable to interview Washington during the months-long investigation after making requests through the University of Nebraska’s Athletic Department, as well as Washington’s former attorney, Jon Bruning, who is the former Attorney General of Nebraska.
The investigator said Bruning questioned whether charges would actually be filed against his client when contacted last fall by the Sheriff’s Department.
“The general air was, ‘Is this really as big of a deal as you’re making it?’” the investigator said. “I explained to him that we do take these cases very seriously. Cases like this can have severe consequences, especially for the victims, throughout their entire lives, and we were investigating wholeheartedly because of that fact.”
Bruning, reached Friday by NBC Bay Area, declined to comment on the case.
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I don't believe Connelly has any particular axe to grind against Texas, it's just that he feuds with Texas fans more than anyone else right now because of the disconnect between his system and Texas's big wins last season.
The only biases I see come through in his writings are being defensive about his work (understandable and not even an issue) and being exuberant about anything that reflects positively on his alma mater Missouri. The latter bias is the only one that would seem like a problem in terms of objectivity but it's largely unavoidable and I haven't seen any evidence it causes any issues for his work's integrity.
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He lost dudes from a safety angle, at which he sucks. How do we know he sucks at man coverage, it's a totally different athletic endeavor. The guy can't track balls in the air so he's a liability in pass coverage at the safety position. For somebody who is so awesome at one aspect of the game he can't possibly be worse at standard man coverage than he is at safety coverage.
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On 2/8/2019 at 8:13 AM, South Austin said:
Are you counting Mizzou and aggy in that 22-10 record?
Hard to come up with a way where we haven't dominated the SEC unless you consider Vanderbilt the only SEC school.
AllTime Texas Record Against:
Current SEC Teams - 191-91-9 (.672 WPCT)
Except TAMU and MU - 97-48-4 (.664 WPCT)
Old 10 (remove South Carolina and Arkansas, too) - 41-25-4 (.614 WPCT) -
2 minutes ago, Fozzz said:
If you ascribe zero value to S&P+, then yes, they would be meaningless. I think they have some value, although it's hard to say how much compared to other rating systems as I have not read any systematic study comparing them (as is occasionally done with ZiPS, Steamer, PECOTA, etc.). However, from judging by this thread, the most valuable rating system is the one that predicts the best performance for your team of choice. With that in mind, I would predict S&P+ has zero value on this board.
No, that's not what I mean at all. Connelly publishes his S&P+ because he thinks it better reflects actual team strengths than final scores. And, on the whole, I agree. He also publishes predictions versus the spread because he wants to show that there is a value in his system with respect to predicting future performance on the field. Therefore it's reasonable to wonder if he intends his preseason projections to predict performance on the field in the upcoming season. I would imagine that he does indeed feel like this is the case.
And so that is a more realistic measuring stick for his projections than his own system's year-end rankings. Otherwise the entire effort is meaningless. Anyone can rank the teams any way they like, and if I say next year San Jose State is going to be the #20 team in the country according to my system and then my system says they're #20 at the end of the year do I get to claim that as proof my system projected the Spartans' team properly? I suppose, but both results are actually evidence that my system is bad.
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Just now, DanRydell said:
IIRC, it's not actually modeled to predict against the spread but rather to predict win probabilities. I have no idea how well it performs at that (do teams predicted to win a game 70% of the time actually win roughly 70% of the time?) or how it compares to any other model at doing so.
If that's the case then he should go with that, because I have found that Vegas moneylines are much softer than point spreads.
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7 minutes ago, Fozzz said:
His pre-season projections are designed to project S&P. That's literally all they are meant to do. They aren't intended or designed to project Texas' Dolphin, Hatch, J-Train, Junky's, Hamburgler, etc., rating. Texas had a projected S&P+ entering 2018 of 27 and finished 32nd. The year before their projected S&P+ was 16th and they finished 30th. The year before that their projected S&P+ was 34th and they finished 36th. So while the pre-season projected S&P+ has been fairly accurate over the past few years, but it generally overrates them a little.
So they're meaningless. What is the real world meaning behind them? If the only thing they're designed is to forecast S&P+ then they have zero value.
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That's the other humorous thing, how defensive he gets in conversations. Saying that his system completely nailed the 2017 Texas team is silly. His preseason projection missed significantly not only compared to end-of-season polls and rankings, but also to his own system at the end of the year. The only place it was "nailed" was his second order wins which is just an ex post facto look at how likely the team who won was likely to win based on the stats.
But of course that is basically meaningless. I could create a system much more accurate at such an analysis, takes about two seconds. Which team had more points at the end of the game? This system is 100%. His entire argument, which is completely valid, is that looking deeper than the final score is important when predicting future performance. But that has absolutely nothing to do with analyzing past performance.
His system did not completely nail Herman's 2016 and 2017 teams, that's simply false.
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Personally I still think Brandon Jones is our best skills match for the super nickel although I know few agree with me.
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Random would indeed just be 50%. So I've always looked at it like 50% is random selection, 55% is beyond excellent, and halfway between happens to be roughly the breakeven point.
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Didn't I read somewhere that Foster is getting a look at nickel?Made some changes. https://www.surlyhorns.com/board/index.php?/topic/7090-texas-roster-2019/&do=findComment&comment=906439- Whittington is going to play RB, given our dearth of options at the position right now.
- All indications are that Epps will be at XWR, not TE, this season.
- I think Bru will get a shot at HWR first in the LJH mold.
- I have Floyd at Rover, but linebacker is totally up in the air. I also took Townsend off since it's pretty clear he's moving on in some form (participated in Senior Day).
- Split the safeties into boundary, field, and joker positions. It's going to be interesting to see how the staff gets all of Sterns, Foster, Overshown, and Brandon Jones on the field.
2019 Texas Softball - Connie's overboard, Anchors Aweigh!
in UT Sports
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Your post is needed over here: