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Huckleberry

Certifiably Surly
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Posts posted by Huckleberry

  1. 1 minute ago, Pato del Muerto said:

    Now now, this thread is for bitching about R straight ticket or letter voting. All D votes are from an educated, altruistic, progressive hand. 

    PW and I are trying to have an adult conversation. Take your stupid shit elsewhere. Thanks.

  2. 8 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

    Ed Emmett in a really tight race in Harris County.  Fuck everyone who does straight ticket voting or votes because of the letter next to the name.  He has been very, very good.  

    Yep, the end of straight party voting will be a blessing.

    But in the end lots of voters will still mindlessly vote straight party one at a time.

  3. 6 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

    If turnout continues like this throughout Texas I will have to modify my Cruz by 4-6% prediction to Cruz by 3-5%.

    I know, I'm a wild man.

    I think I'm going to start a website called fivethirtynine.com with the slogan "because we're one better."

    • Like 1
  4. 1 minute ago, bad_teammate said:

    This right here is bullshit.

    Beto is a tall, good-looking guy. Other than that... what?

    He didn't start with big name recognition. He didn't have some kind of record of leadership. He didn't have a history as a policy genius. He didn't even have specific and firm policy initiatives. He almost won a Senate seat in Texas with a charming smile, nice personality, and some progressive platitudes.

    He was a really good candidate, but nothing irreplaceable.

    Dems looking at this and thinking, "OH GOD THAT WAS OUR ONE CHANCE!" are pants-wetting morons. Take the ball and run forward with it to 2020 and beyond.

    This is accurate. O'Rourke was not a perfect candidate. It's true that he faced an absolutely terrible opponent in Cruz, but O'Rourke was nothing special. He simply worked hard and tried to connect with a shit-ton of people.

    Texas is currently somewhere between the Cruz and Abbott victory margins. Valdez was even worse than Cruz as a candidate.

  5. 1 minute ago, CowboyFred said:

     

    Travis will be about a 50K O'Rourke bump and Harris will be about a 45K O'Rourke bump. There aren't enough votes left to make up the margin.

  6. Just now, NowThis said:

    25% reporting but 6.1 million votes. Explain that math. 

    As mentioned elsewhere, it's because all the reporting services are treating early voting results as a single precinct in each county. It's absurd. If 6.1 million votes are in then you're looking at 85% or so of the votes counted.

  7. Just now, horncyclist said:

    This isn't over yet. Cruz's lead is about 75K votes. Election day vote in Travis county alone makes that up. 

    Travis County election day votes should be O'Rourke by about 50-55K.

  8. Just now, Longhornmaniac8 said:

    I think Beto is running out of steam. I don't think the 16% reporting in Harris County is indicative of the outstanding vote. Vote totals look WAY too high to just be 1/6 of total vote in that county.

    Yes, for some reason the various sites report early voting totals as a precinct and the percentage you then see is the percents of "precincts" that have reported.

    Even though early voting will be somewhere around 70%+ of total votes.

  9. The 538 live odds seem to fluctuate a bit. Looking good for Republicans, but I went back to their main election page and it said 53% chance for Democrats to control the House, then reloaded to make sure I had the latest data and it said Democrats had a 61% chance to control the house.

  10. Williamson County early voting results:

    image.png

    That's a big lead in non straight ticket voters for O'Rourke. O'Rourke got 39,814 votes from non Democrat straight ticket voters, Cruz got 25,661 from non GOP straight ticket voters.

    Of course suburbia was supposed to be good for O'Rourke relative to previous Texas elections.

  11. Just helped a woman in Santa Fe who couldn't operate the voting machines and spoke only Spanish at a precinct that didn't have any Spanish-speaking poll workers.  So she's going to vote, and she wouldn't have been able to otherwise.
    Feels good, man--feels good.
    Every polling place should have a worker with Google translate on their phone.
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