It's been said a lot here and on TOS, esp. 3 years ago in Charlie's 2nd year, that coaches who win the National Championship either do so in their 2nd year, or that 2nd year is a damn good season that sets up for future glory.
We have to go back almost 30 years for that not to be true. Going backwards...
Nick Saban - First season at LSU went 8-4, 2nd season he won the SEC and ended up getting the title in his 4th year there. First season at Alabama went 7-6, 2nd season he made it to the SEC championship game and lost. Won the title the following season (ugh)
Dabo Swinney - First season at Clemson took over halfway through the season and finished 4-3, 2nd season he went 9-5, but also made it to the ACC championship game (lost). He didn't win the championship until his 9th season, but starting in his 4th season he's hit at least 10 wins for 7 straight years and counting.
Urban Meyer - at Utah (in the Mountain West) went 10-2 in year 1, 12-0 in year 2 and then went to Florida where he went 9-3 in season 1 and won the title in season 2. At OSU he went 12-0 in his first season, 12-2 in his second and won the title in year 3.
Jimbo Fisher - went to the ACC title game in year one (lost) and won the title in his 4th year
Gene Chizik - first year went 8-5, second year won the title.
Les Miles - yeah, he took over from Saban, but he still made it to the SEC championship game (lost) in his first year. Won title in his 3rd season.
Mack Brown - first season went 9-3, second season he took us to the Big XII title game. Didn't win the title until his 8th season.
Pete Carroll - 6-6 in his first year, won the Pac10 in his 2nd year and then titles in his 3rd & 4th years
Jim Tressel - 7-5 in his first year, won the title in his 2nd
Larry Coker - took over a loaded team and won the title in his first year. Still won the Big East title in years 2 & 3 going 12-1 and 11-2 respectively
Bob Stoops - 7-5 in year 1, won the title in year 2. Consumed a massive amount of dicks during his tenure.
Bobby Bowden - going back a long way, but he went 5-6 in year 1 and then 10-2 in year 2. Dominated CFB during the late 80's-90's & won 2 titles.
Phil Fulmer - was interim coach for year 1 going 4-0. Went 10-2 in year 2 and finally won the title in year 7
Tom Osborne - while it took him 20 years to win a title, he went 9-2-1 in year 1, 9-3 in year 2 and then 10-2 in year 3 winning the Big 8. Never had less than 9 wins. That's a pretty incredible run.
Gene Stallings - first year went 7-5, second was 11-1 and then won the title in his 3rd year
Don James - took 16 years to win his only title, but after 6-5 & 5-6 starts he won the Pac 8 in his 3rd year. He's the most recent example of it not working, but that's 27 years ago.
Dennis Erickson - took over a loaded Miami team from Jimmy Johnson and won the title in his first year. Did it again in his 3rd year.
That gets us back to the 1991 season. Mack was the last championship-winning coach to lose his opener in his 2nd season and as we discussed that was on some fluky special teams shit vs. NC State. He still played for the Big XII title that year.
tldr - history says that if a coach doesn't do significantly well in his 2nd season, like going to the conference title game or getting 9/10 wins, he probably won't ever get a title. Lenny Mensa has a long way to go if we're honestly going to make it to the Big XII title game this year after what we saw on Saturday.