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Everything posted by GoldAppleCorps
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The data has always supported the contention that Bernie Sanders had a very solid floor of around 30% of the Democrat voters. They'd support him and turn out to vote loyally. My contention is that he's also got around a 35% ceiling. We're about to test that. 30-35% is great when there's 10 players in the race. When the game is down to 2, it's no game at all. Sanders has a unique, distinctive (sometime unhelpfully abrasive) message that appeals to a certain segment. That segment is notoriously unreliable at voting. It's also a tough message to expand to reach other voters. Warren dropping out offers him a last, albeit slim, chance to advance. I'm predicting, though, that the majority of Warren supporters (including me, truth be told) are pragmatists looking towards winning political victories rather than championing raw ideals. Sanders sought to smash the machine. The machine, though, is played through votes (and should be). The votes just aren't going to be there for him.
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Selecting Elizabeth Warren out of the Senate removes a Dem seat from a state with a Republican governor. I don't know exactly what Mass's procedure is for replacing a Senator is, but that may need to be taken into account.
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This x1kabillion. Black folks stayed home in 2016 - convinced (rightly or wrongly, by legitimate or psy-ops) that they weren't wanted or respected. The result was, well, we know what the result was. Joe Biden spent a career in politics cultivating the respect of the black community. He didn't just start running ads in "Jet" magazine (is that still a thing?). He's listened, talked, negotiated and acted. The trust is earned. As a quick refresher for the "can't vote for either of them" crowd: Practically nothing on the President's agenda is actionable by the President. Landmark change proposed by Warren or Sanders will require wholesale changes to our appropriations and revenue. Those will require Congress to act. It won't be easy, but let's say it's doable. Let's say that legislation is written and passed by both Houses. Student loan forgiveness, healthcare overhaul, civil rights legislation, etc is sitting there on the President's desk. Which party is likely to sign it? If you're in for Bernie, you're in for the Dem nominee - whomever that is. Otherwise, you just like winning voting contests.
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2020 Texas Offseason Thread: Herman's Hail Mary
GoldAppleCorps replied to texifornia's topic in Football
Well, I don't right now trust Epps' ability to line up and simply run a route in a "hey, he's a receiver! Do receiver stuff!" role. That is, going straight up against the defense when it's obvious what's coming isn't really comfortable. However, getting Epps inside in a slot with Eagles outside, Cade Brewer tight to the other side, Jake Smith wide, and say, Jordan Whittington in the backfield presents a defensive quandary. With that out there, I can go anywhere from 2TE power to 5WR. All of my route trees are open, I can threaten every defensive level, and I can use Sam to run power or JWhitt to run speed. I think we're all disappointed that Epps hasn't used that big body to confound defenses more. However, I'm optimistic that the WR coach will now do more than say, "Hey, uh, yeah. Go get open when the ball is snapped!". The problem has obviously been more than player ability. -
Head to head polls are non predictive at this stage because the Republican candidate is a known quantity. As such, the different candidates can brand their message specifically towards him. There is no way for the Republican message to specifically address any one candidate with that type of vigor. If, say, Buttigieg were the candidate, then Trump's message would (should be - assuming someone with an actual grasp on reality is running it) be his low experience level, the small world of South Bend compared to foreign policy, and probably his sinful, demonic lifestyle. I'm not saying these are valid (or even credible) criticism. I'm just pointing out that the criticisms are specific to each candidate. The Dems know who to directly criticize. The Republicans don't have that specific target yet, so their message appears weaker in polling. Polls WILL tell you which voting groups are favoring a given candidate. Right now, black women will enthusiastically support Joe Biden - and not really any other candidate. That's VERY important, as this enthusiasm gap strategically cost the Dems in 2016. In that light, there will be two choices in November. If you're eligible to vote, you can either vote for the Democratic candidate, or you can vote for Donald Trump. Staying home and complaining is the same as voting for Trump. Throw shade, then vote.
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This was a test from my childhood. Playground conversation was: "Dude! You looked away during the face ripping scene! You're scared!" "Nuh-uh! I watched it! Watched it twice! Ain't scared!" "Raiders of the Lost Ark" had the head melting scene. "Poltergeist" had face ripping.
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If you enter the code "up-down-left-right-GDGD" on the home screen, it will float a high ball towards the sidelines while simultaneously summoning a Tesla from the parking lot to smash into your ribs just as the pass gets there. Yay, science!
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Of all the failures from the Texas coaching staff, the inability of the offense to adapt to the loss of Cade Brewer (the only credible blocking AND receiving threat on the roster last season) was perhaps the most galling and inexplicable. Yes, the TE is a major weapon in today's football, and our offense relies on it frequently. To simply continue to stubbornly run the same plays with no dual threat was sheer stupidity. I'm looking forward to that ineptitude being corrected.
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Serious question. Why are people Cowboys fans?
GoldAppleCorps replied to Aqua Buddha's topic in Football
I blame Jerry Jones for pulling back the curtains and showing me how the circus works. He ruined a lot of the magic. I'm 48. My dad was a Cowboys fan, and introduced me to it. I never knew any different - win or lose. When Landry got fired, it was tough, but justified. Dallas held on too long to too many past-their-prime stars that were only nostalgic names taking up roster spaces. Jerry brought in Jimmy, dumped those names for draft picks, and put the team into purgatory until those picks paid off. It was ugly, but the results spoke for themselves. What the results said was that Jimmy was a football genius. Jerry wanted them to say that he alone was a great football man. When there weren't enough pats on his narrow back, he cut Jimmy loose. Jerry turned the Cowboys into an investment vehicle. He doesn't mind overpaying for stars, to the detriment of the team, so long as the jersey sells. He showed me the reality of the NFL being a bunch of contractors collaborating for their own purposes. It may be the truth, but it came from him. I'll always blame him for it. -
CLC is more of a licensing management company. They're the guys who do the tedious work like vetting the products, forming the contract terms, and auditing the returns. Someone like Nike might approach the University leadership directly with terms, but if you're making guitar picks or metallic car emblems, you'll submit your proposal to CLC. They'll tell you what you can and can't do and how much it'll cost you. More importantly, they'll police the University's rights. If you're making unlicensed gear, you'll hear from CLC.
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Realistically, this is just another unwinding of the Steve Patterson "Penny-wise, Pound Foolish" mess. He tried to save a buck by bringing a complicated, unwieldy process in-house rather than let a professional handle it. The University likely lost 100x the cost savings through missed opportunities or infringement. The Longhorn brand is largely recession-proof. Just cash the checks and use the excess to hire coordinators!
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You're right, of course, but if we stick solely to what we're entitled to do, then 53 Republican senators are allowed to vote for acquittal and put out public statements about how they can see right through the Dem's pathetic deep state. Just because I'm newer to the politix board, I'll note that I swing very left of center. Watching the Republican Party burn on its own pyre would be delightful. The pragmatist and American in me says that this course doesn't end well. I need a healthy, functional adversary to balance the system. I'm offering the Republicans a way to cut off their cancerous limb and claim the whole thing was a horrible disease. I want to believe that, down that path, lies constructive governing.
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Let's pretend that we've gotten to the point where both the President and VP are leaving either through their own assent, or by force of Congress. The Constitution only specifies that the Vice President accedes to the Presidency when the President can't go anymore. The rest of the line of succession is designated by an act of Congress. I personally propose that, especially at this stage, changing the political party of the Executive through impeachment and removal would be unhealthy for America. I would suggest Speaker Pelosi contact Mitch McConnell and see who he'd accept as the Chief Executive. Really, another act of Congress tailored to this current, ugly situation could pass both Houses and be veto-proof. It could shore up (read: create) support for conviction in the Senate and hopefully put the writing on the wall. Teaching the current "leadership" to read notwithstanding.
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You guys prolly woulda turned down Wendy O. Williams too!
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For all of yall complaining about the LHN:
GoldAppleCorps replied to GreenspointTexas's topic in Football
I too used PSVue for my cable replacement. At the time, it was very cost competitive and had the best lineup. It was easy to use across a wide variety of devices. The fact that it also had LHN was a major bonus. Now, obviously I'll be shopping for the best of breed replacement. However, the ability to get the LHN won't be a determining factor. It's a great time filler, but not exactly useful for much. By tying it to a cable provider, options are greatly limited. Frankly, those "providers" are really lousy. Having LHN available with an ESPN+ subscription would likely entice me to keep it, or even available with Disney+. Considering their cost challenges within ABC/Disney in particular and the broader trend on packaged TV in general, ESPN really needs to decide how much they want to support LHN. It either needs to be licensed to the broadest possible carrier set (and have pricing reduced commensurately), or let it die and fold the Texas content into the ESPN+ agreement that supports the rest of the Big 12. -
Obviously, the devil will be in the details. I don't think the NCAA is backing "open the checkbooks and recruit to the highest bidder." In case you're wondering, Texas will always be the highest bidder. We have more cash, more potential to earn and generate cash, and more deep pocketed donors ready to fund anything than any other team out there. We've bemoaned the SECSECSEC bagmen because we didn't want to play the "against the NCAA rules" game (at least publicly, to that degree - my naiivete has its limits). If there are no restrictions, we won't lose on money, ever. If the limits are set high, it will cause the cannibalization of other sports at lesser funded (that is, all the rest of them) schools. I'm not certain how many schools in the Big 12 could support that kind of financial crush before abandoning the concept.
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Digging in the recesses of selective memory, I want to say it was 2010 when Texas played Nebraska in Lincoln. Their defensive strategy for that game was to put as many defenders on the LOS as possible, then have the selective few drop during the play. Crucially, the pressuring defenders favored gap integrity over straight line pressure. The result confused the Husker OL and prevented Taylor Martinez from escaping left or right. He wasn't fast enough mentally to diagnose coverage after the snap, and had no room to roll in order to buy that time. Hurts is a great QB, but not the meth-addled cockroach runner that Murray was. Scipio documented the weak links on the Sooner OL and how to exploit that. If Keondre Coburn consistently causes a road accident pileup in the middle, Texas has the athletes and scheme to force the issue. It will take more than one player to bring Hurts down, but hitting the opposition hard is something the Texas defense excels at. OU isn't an offense that can go one-dimensional and live. If the Sooner OL isn't winning battles for the run game, then defending it becomes a matter of keeping CeeDee Lamb in front of you. Concede FGs rather than jog-in TDs. Are they still using the backup kicker, or do suspensions not apply when the fan base gets antsy?
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Texas opens as a 10.5 point underdog v Oklahoma
GoldAppleCorps replied to TexasMan's topic in Football
I've always loved this. Mostly, because Tyson's longtime trainer and friend, Cus D'Amato, knew that physicality was only a small part of the equation. Usually, both fighters were physically trained. It was unlikely that one man was going to be so superior in his training and ability that he would win the fight on those attributes alone. A fight like this ends up being a mental one. If Texas has an edge, it's that they know what's coming. LSU hit them hard. They had to get up off the canvas, put their marbles back in the jar, and compete. oSu showed them they can't let mistakes derail the mission. WVU made them play under a hostile crowd with raw players. Texas has been tested. They know the process works, and that when it gets ugly, trust your training and play the game. How does OU react when pressed? When "the usual stuff" isn't working, what does Plan B look like? -
I watched this game from McLane stadium. Tell Brock Purdy to look someplace other than the 5 yards in the middle of the field. Baylor's defense is credible for once, but they let the RB leak out to the side uncovered EVERY PLAY. However, the QB stubbornly refused to do anything besides attack his TE or slot in the middle over and over again. As a result, he either got 15 yard completions or, usually, found his team in 3rd and long. These two teams were, unsurprisingly, evenly matched. Neither can generate a pass rush without committing extra defenders. Neither can defend a pass if the pressure doesn't disrupt the QB in under 3 seconds. ISU was surprisingly less physical than I was expecting. They seemed to be thinking rather than playing.
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Toilet Bowl -- Aggy vs Arky (Sept 28th ESPN 11am)
GoldAppleCorps replied to LTtxfan's topic in Football
Jerry Jones charges an extra $10,000 for non-contract space debris entering the stadium. -
Oklahoma State @ Texas - 630PM on ABC: Mensas vs Mullets
GoldAppleCorps replied to Hagbard Celine's topic in Football
Maybe I should have said "against conventional wisdom". It's been working for over a decade for oSu (with all the great receivers mentioned), so clearly there's more opportunity there than most QBs are comfortable with. -
Oklahoma State @ Texas - 630PM on ABC: Mensas vs Mullets
GoldAppleCorps replied to Hagbard Celine's topic in Football
The oSu QB has wheels! I'm thinking that the Cowboy OC is, right now, installing more sweep and option packages. He's still a freshman and is learning, but that offense will be very dangerous once a given play has more than one target. Right now, when he starts the play, it's either a pass or a run. If it's a run, it's going to the RB. The defense can therefore sell out to stop it. A lot of his big completions were oSu vintage style. By that, I mean he completely misread the defense, threw an ill advised pass to a double covered receiver - who then out fought two defenders for a big catch! He's got a lot to learn, but pure speed covers up a ton of mental errors. -
Since that's about the only place you can legally try to tackle a QB, the news shouldn't affect much.
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