hopkinsnhorns

Like I've been telling my dad for months, that bull market was built on a house of cards.

Disney Tokyo has been shut down for a while now, but I'm told that it is a franchise (not owned by Disney Corp.). My wife and I did Epcot right before they shut down the park for Hurricane Matthew in 2016. We were in Orlando for wedding planning. It was awesome. We did more in 5 hours at that park than you could have possibly done in 12 hours during a normal day with normal wait times. That said, the Disney owned parks almost never close. If it comes to that, you know we've hit the "God Help Us All" phase of the pandemic. https://allears.net/2019/06/02/the-7-days-disney-world-closed-down/

Anyone believe this shit? Just perusing the COVID19 map and there are no reported cases in all of Turkey even though every one of its neighbors is infected... With all of they Syrian refugees, I can't believe that this hasn't caught on there yet.

I can't imagine the legal battle that would ensue if our government tried to prevent US citizens from returning to USA, pandemic or not.

My MIL & FIL are supposed to fly to Barcelona and embark on a 2 week Mediterranean cruise (many stops in and around Italy) in late May. They bought travel insurance for the flights and cruise. Looks like this sort of event is not covered (surprise surprise), so they're kind of in limbo as to what to do. They're both in their mid/late 60's, and he's already had open heart surgery, so his general health is not the best. I think right now the best thing they can do is sit tight and wait for the airlines/cruises to find a solution. Hopefully they drop their transfer fees and allow passengers to reschedule when it become apparent that this type of cruise can't happen.

I think the prevalence of smokers (especially in the kill zone, 50 or older) significantly affects the fatality rate of the virus. But there are other effects, like minor mutations between different strains of the virus, that could also explain the wide variance in severity. If Italy was infected with a particularly deadly version of the virus, it would only amplify the necessity to contain it there before it spreads. Coronaviruses are known for their rapid mutation rate as they spread, which is one of the reasons it will be very very difficult to create a universal immunization (and why we don't already have immunizations for the common cold, which is comprised 4 separate strains of coronaviruses).

I'm aware. Still a chance it could recover a bit before EOB.

What's the O/U on the DOW today, -2000?

Who knows how many people (especially the young) already have this, but their symptoms are so minor they attribute them to other natural causes (like seasonal allergies)?

WTF is 7 days going to do? Shit needs to be more like 14-21 days to prevent spread. Maybe this is just to plant the seed without causing a mass run on supplies...

Sometime this week as mass production of non-flawed tests are already underway. I believe they've already changed the guidance on this matter.

It was apolitical. I didn't specify either party. If it takes them all, we can get a soft system reset. It'll do what term limits will never be allowed to do.

NPR had some reporting this morning on the lack of testing. Apparently, our CDC rejected the approved WHO COVID19 test method and instead created their own test panel that would test for COVID19 as well as SARS and MERS. Apparently this test was too complicated and part of the reaction could easily corrupt the findings. After weeks of development, they had to trash that test in favor of the simpler WHO test procedure. This explains the stunning shortage of test available as it broke containment in the US. Talk about hubris and a complete failure of bureaucracy...

Negative. Pretty sure she banged my roommate, who was a co-captain on the tennis team (she played for the women's team). That whole group was pretty incestuous. Definitely caught her making a walk of shame out one morning, but I never pressed for details.

Liz Specht January 26 · Trying really hard not to be alarmist here but I'm seeing so little discussion of this on U.S. news and my social feeds that I really feel we're all asleep at the wheel. If you're not checking in on near-hourly updates on the coronavirus, you really should be. In the last few hours, health authorities in China confirmed that asymptomatic carriers and patients in the incubation phase are able to infect others, *unlike* SARS or most other respiratory viruses that require active droplet generation (sneezing, coughing, etc). That means temperature and symptom screening at transit hubs (which has really only been happening for about 5 days anyways, while the incubation phase can be up to 14 days) is NOT effective, and that any of the millions of people who left ground zero in the last few weeks could be going about their daily lives unaware that there's any reason for alarm. Reliable numbers aren't yet available regarding infectivity or mortality rates (numbers coming from official Chinese channels are clearly not yet reflecting reality on the ground, plus there are inherent delays for confirmation testing and for the infection to run its course to know the ultimate outcome for a given patient), but this tidbit alone should shake us all out of our complacency that this will be no worse than SARS (2003): In 2006, there were 10 non-stop flight routes between the U.S. and China. As of 2018, there are **61** non-stop routes (NOT including Hong Kong and Macau, which are major connecting hubs from mainland China to U.S.), which translates to >>6-fold more passengers. Many of those flights come to California. We got our first confirmed case here late last night. Stay alert and stay safe, y'all. This is emphatically *not* SARS or MERS or anything resembling the outbreaks that we think we know how to handle, and the world is very different today than it was the last time we were presented with anything close to this.

I went to undergrad with Liz. She was a ChemE and Biomolecular Engineering undergrad from Hopkins and now has a PhD from UCSD. Super smart. It was her out-of-the-blue borderline alarmist facebook post in January that made me aware of the true risk this virus posed. I'm glad she's getting more media exposure and hope that the powers that be understand the nature of the beast they are facing.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-many-americans-have-been-tested-coronavirus/607597/?fbclid=IwAR3xCptI-_223gC3WY3RR0vEvJqipY_mZ0IqnIflJ4-QbANIkqmfQJzk1oo It's what a lot of us have been saying. We're behind the 8 ball in testing, either through our own gross incompetence or for other more nefarious reasons (i.e. not wanting the true infected numbers out there scaring the market and stalling the economy). White House is making claims that it is unlikely to be able to achieve (e.g. 1 million tests available w/in a week).

Actual cost of a test is likely around $200, and I'm sure the per unit cost drops when we're talking about MASS production.

The daily Peak Prosperity YouTube videos on this had a chart showing the growth rate in Southern Hemisphere vs. Northern Hemisphere. It appears to be spreading much faster in the North, which suggests it will exhibit seasonality (like the Spanish Flu). I can't recommend those videos enough for people that want a deep dive into the available data.

You said you post rarely. The fact is you didn't post AT ALL* until this, now you're spamming us with really uninformed opinions. *He did have 3 total posts in the 2 years prior to this thread...

So the lady in California that was the first case of community transmitted COVID19 in the states - she was on droplet precautions before they suspected COVID19. This means mask and eye PPE, increased hand washing frequency, etc. Even with those precautions, multiple health care workers who treated her have since tested positive. The public may think they have a handle on how to prevent the spread of this, but in reality, we don't have the equipment or the knowledge to prevent this from spreading. This is just the tip of a shitty iceberg as far as I'm concerned.

From my own recent experience, we had to wait about 6 hours in the ER for a vacancy to open up in the ICU at Memorial Hermann The Woodlands when my wife had pneumonia in both her lungs on NYE. Luckily we went to a relatively new ER that few people know about, so we weren't occupying an ER room that was needed by others at the time.

My FIL this morning in the group chat - "3x as many people died in TN tornado last night as all Coronavirus victims in US... just saying" My response: "Let me know when the rate of tornadoes starts to increase exponentially." He did not like that. Dude has a PhD in Synthetic Organic Chemistry, but Fox News is making him retarded in his old work-from-home age.

New reports are out that infections were underreported at a rate of 52 times less in Shandong Province in China. Take that .1% and make it more like 5%.

Not to get too policital here, but this could be a good thing in the long run. If a lot of the older hard-line Islamic Guard Iranians die off from COVID-19, it will make it easier for the younger pro-West, pro-Democracy population to rise up and take control.