VolenteHawk

Back today with two plays, a wrong team favored and a solid plus money coin flip game... Giants +130 Twins +102

Gut reaction, I think I like the Patriots under and Green Bay over. The only team I've actually bet on is Pittsburgh. I think the Steelers are the most undervalued team on the board. Their defense was really good last year (#3 DVOA), which was overshadowed by how terrible their offense was. If a healthy Big Ben makes the offense just slightly above average that's a pretty good damn team. Pitt Over 9.5 +120 Correlated if a year of film on Lamar Jackson causes even a bit of regression for that team, the divisional odds are just way too skewed. Pitt Win AFC North +400 One other team I like but haven't pulled the trigger on...are we sure the AFC East isn't going to just completely suck. And if it does, doesn't the Dolphins at 7 or 8/1 seem like it's pretty reasonable. I haven't bet it because their schedule is brutal. They have the NFC and AFC West and are stuck with home games against Rams, Seahawks, Chiefs and play at San Francisco...it gets very hard to find 9-ish wins, even with those juicy odds looming. I will almost certainly be on their over 6.5 at some point. Edit: Forgot to add, the Steelers didn't have any Covid opt outs...they're like the anti-Patriots.

Two sizable dogs today, both based on numbers that are just too high... Orioles +166 Phillies + 163

My tracking app works best in one month chunks, so here's the posted play update as of this morning... 11-9, +2.6 units

Not in the machines, in the dive bars.

Well, I had a 2-0 yesterday not post from my phone, if you’ve been tailing...my bad. Braves -105

Illegal as shit. I play a metric ton of Golden Tee, so I’m in these dives a lot. It’s insane.

Always spooky to have a board that you absolutely love, so here are your Thursday fadeables... Rays +137 Rockies -127 Orioles +130

Cueto price is too high. Giants +137

Business man's special today. Blue Jays -101

This thread is all straight bets so far, lay a unit on dogs and lay to win a unit on favorites. I usually have season win totals and will pick up some division winner stuff as the season goes along...but with a short season and potential for canceled games, I had no conviction on win totals. None of my books are even dealing division winners, but even if they were I'd probably be staying away. The new playoff format probably means 2nd place teams only push so hard to even try to the division. I'd image teams solidly in 2nd will prioritize other organization goals ahead of winning. I suppose for the right plus money I'd take a flyer on teams that are a couple of games back but that I think are the best in their division if it was offered (Astros, Indians).

Like two today, another Maeda fade and a (slow) steam move behind Snell. Rays -120 Brewers +144

I haven’t opened a new account or funded one in a long time, but I use betonline.ag and betdsi.eu the most right now, and they’re both fine with timely payouts. Though betdsi deals dime lines in baseball, so unless their number is skewed I go elsewhere this time of year. If you’re just aiming at a futures bet I’d check a few different spots and choose based on price, I think.

So that whole “what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger” thing is bullshit? I knew it.

5-4 and up right at a unit in this thread so far.

Two small favorites today... Diamondbacks -107 Rays -112

Arrieta fade. Braves +102

Like Toronto today. I bet it and my book that has been dealing the best lines immediately moved it 5 cents, like they did with the Reds two days ago. That’s annoying and weird. I’ll watch it. Anyway, I make the true line 105 to 110, so anything better than 115 is good. Blue Jays +121

Exactly how I found it.

Not regular old 183...Ed Research A.

I’m on the Reds today but the number has gotten out of control, so I can’t recommend it.

Fade of Carrasco today. Twins -120 Will probably also talk myself into Freeland as a dog in Colorado.

Yep. You know who has two thumbs and no fucking idea what his wife’s grocery routine is?

Spain crossed 3k cases yesterday and very much looks like the very early stages of a legit 2nd wave. They no doubt learned from us what not to do, but if countries like that have a legit 2nd round that will be discouraging...will feel like there is a certain inevitability to it, IMO.

Two plays for today. A fade of Porcello and a coinflip-ey home team behind their "ace". Braves -127 Rockies -105