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VolenteHawk

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Everything posted by VolenteHawk

  1. If there is a hypothetical herd immunity number that we're approaching, I think it would be hard to tease out of the data. Anecdotal experience is of course ripe with confirmation bias...either way, I think reasonable people can disagree. My anecdotal experience was the mask usage was pretty good in and around Austin well before the state mandate. It was pretty terrible in the exurbs until San Marcos had an outbreak, then even those places started having high compliance, still before it was technically mandated statewide. Marginal differences in ubiquitous mask usage is probably swamped by the way reopening happened. I do find it interesting, and increasingly hard to explain without some kind of existing immunity, how similar the backside of infection curves and positive test rates are. We haven't put our finger on it via science, yet...but I'm nearly convinced that SOMETHING is going on there.
  2. Blue Jays -116 Royals +147
  3. I’ve had it if a few of them want to suck some antibodies out of me.
  4. Take a look at the Kansas Jayhawk football schedule and try to find 3 wins on it. Currently U2.5 -145. I'd probably rather have U2 at a better price, but in any even...I'm taking it to pound town.
  5. Back today with two plays, a wrong team favored and a solid plus money coin flip game... Giants +130 Twins +102
  6. Gut reaction, I think I like the Patriots under and Green Bay over. The only team I've actually bet on is Pittsburgh. I think the Steelers are the most undervalued team on the board. Their defense was really good last year (#3 DVOA), which was overshadowed by how terrible their offense was. If a healthy Big Ben makes the offense just slightly above average that's a pretty good damn team. Pitt Over 9.5 +120 Correlated if a year of film on Lamar Jackson causes even a bit of regression for that team, the divisional odds are just way too skewed. Pitt Win AFC North +400 One other team I like but haven't pulled the trigger on...are we sure the AFC East isn't going to just completely suck. And if it does, doesn't the Dolphins at 7 or 8/1 seem like it's pretty reasonable. I haven't bet it because their schedule is brutal. They have the NFC and AFC West and are stuck with home games against Rams, Seahawks, Chiefs and play at San Francisco...it gets very hard to find 9-ish wins, even with those juicy odds looming. I will almost certainly be on their over 6.5 at some point. Edit: Forgot to add, the Steelers didn't have any Covid opt outs...they're like the anti-Patriots.
  7. Two sizable dogs today, both based on numbers that are just too high... Orioles +166 Phillies + 163
  8. My tracking app works best in one month chunks, so here's the posted play update as of this morning... 11-9, +2.6 units
  9. Not in the machines, in the dive bars.
  10. Well, I had a 2-0 yesterday not post from my phone, if you’ve been tailing...my bad. Braves -105
  11. Illegal as shit. I play a metric ton of Golden Tee, so I’m in these dives a lot. It’s insane.
  12. Always spooky to have a board that you absolutely love, so here are your Thursday fadeables... Rays +137 Rockies -127 Orioles +130
  13. Cueto price is too high. Giants +137
  14. Business man's special today. Blue Jays -101
  15. This thread is all straight bets so far, lay a unit on dogs and lay to win a unit on favorites. I usually have season win totals and will pick up some division winner stuff as the season goes along...but with a short season and potential for canceled games, I had no conviction on win totals. None of my books are even dealing division winners, but even if they were I'd probably be staying away. The new playoff format probably means 2nd place teams only push so hard to even try to the division. I'd image teams solidly in 2nd will prioritize other organization goals ahead of winning. I suppose for the right plus money I'd take a flyer on teams that are a couple of games back but that I think are the best in their division if it was offered (Astros, Indians).
  16. Like two today, another Maeda fade and a (slow) steam move behind Snell. Rays -120 Brewers +144
  17. I haven’t opened a new account or funded one in a long time, but I use betonline.ag and betdsi.eu the most right now, and they’re both fine with timely payouts. Though betdsi deals dime lines in baseball, so unless their number is skewed I go elsewhere this time of year. If you’re just aiming at a futures bet I’d check a few different spots and choose based on price, I think.
  18. So that whole “what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger” thing is bullshit? I knew it.
  19. 5-4 and up right at a unit in this thread so far.
  20. Two small favorites today... Diamondbacks -107 Rays -112
  21. Arrieta fade. Braves +102
  22. Like Toronto today. I bet it and my book that has been dealing the best lines immediately moved it 5 cents, like they did with the Reds two days ago. That’s annoying and weird. I’ll watch it. Anyway, I make the true line 105 to 110, so anything better than 115 is good. Blue Jays +121
  23. Exactly how I found it.
  24. Not regular old 183...Ed Research A.
  25. I’m on the Reds today but the number has gotten out of control, so I can’t recommend it.
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