KenPom actually mashes the win probabilities together to give a statistical projection (rounded to the nearest game for better or worse...I wish he'd do it to tenths of a game). Looking those over, current numbers project like this...
Baylor 27-3, 16-2 (5.4% chance of unbeaten conference record)
Kansas 27-4, 16-2
West Virginia 23-8, 11-7
Texas Tech 20-11, 11-7
Oklahoma 19-2, 9-9 (this record and a Phillips 66 win, and they're in IMO)
Texas 17-14, 7-11 (happy trails, Shaka)
TCU 15-16, 6-12
Iowa St 13-18, 6-12 (KenPom does NOT adjust for injuries...so this is probably high)
Oklahoma St 15-16, 5-13
K-State 11-20, 4-14
That sums to 91 wins when there can be only 90, such is rounding math. I would say 5 teams in the tournament is most likely, but that probably relies on OU needing to win games they should and springing at least one mild upset. Texas is the only other team that could still earn a bid...they're done with KU, Baylor, and Morgantown, but they need to get going right now.