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VolenteHawk

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Everything posted by VolenteHawk

  1. Cardinals -125 this afternoon.
  2. PPR or not probably matters here. I like this ranking for non, but in PPR move Hill down and Connor up.
  3. Couple of almost plays today that I'll watch the numbers on, but for now I'm taking the Pirates +120 (1st 5).
  4. Ha! Yeah. When the Royals went to Alex Gordon to pitch the 7th I jumped on the live over for multiple units, too...which actually was a little sweat when a backup infielder got the first two outs in the 9th. If you're going to watch your team get destroyed, you might as well get paid.
  5. In a single QB league, there is pretty much no scenario where I take one in the first 10 rounds...but I will take one or two of them late. The odds of a Rivers or Roethlisberger starting the season hot and helping my team is higher than a deep flyer at RB.
  6. Lots of games I like today, narrowing it down to 2 for now... Reds +110 and A’s -110
  7. Day 1 of upping bet size turns into my first 0-2 of the season, the 4 run Mets 9th stung. The handicap hasn't changed in these two series, so we're running back both picks from yesterday. Giants EV Nats +110
  8. Timely framing discussion. My wife just sent me a video yesterday she found digging for something else in her phone. Mini Volente buying a strike we probably didn't deserve. IMG_7967.mov
  9. About 50 games left in the stretch run. I've been pretty hot on this thread (12-5, +8.36U)...bound to regress but I'm upping bet sizes so laying 1.5U on dogs and laying to win 1.5U on favorites. If I cool off in the next week, I'll ratchet it back down. Today's picks, Giants +105, Nats -120 I did take the futures bets I posted previously, Cleveland +200 to win the AL Central, Nats +600 to win the NL East, to go with preseason bets of Cleveland OVER 90.5 (-110), Baltimore UNDER 58.5 (-154), and Yankees to win the AL East -130. Cleveland by far by biggest liability, so that will be the biggest sweat. All the others are nice-to-haves.
  10. Oakland +125 at Wrigley.
  11. Yeah, I’m specifically talking about hands where it’s bet into you on the river, the decision is call or raise, and due to the nature of the board you’re practically playing your hand face up. Sooner’s 4 to a flush example with a K is a good one, your straight with pocket 8s is a good one. In these situations, my contention is that the raise is -EV (against reasonable players) b/c we’ve sliced their calling range down to monsters.
  12. This is a great point that shouldn’t get lost in the single hand analysis. I had a buddy jam the 2nd nuts to bounce out of a WSOP event like 10 years ago when I still really played poker. I don’t remember the details today, but he was a pretty good player that just couldn’t digest the idea that his river jam is ONLY called by one hand. He couldn’t fathom that I wouldn’t have liked the raise even in a cash game and that I completely despised it in a tourney still relatively deep.
  13. The student section has generally been good when the team is good. Weeknight attendance by non students can be iffy even with a good team, but it is actually an annoyance to get to the arena from anywhere north or south for those games, and that problem is getting worse not better.
  14. I did not. Didn't play the Pirates, either. A 3-1 day for a shade over a 3 unit profit would have been lovely. Alas, I broke dead even. Cubs -110 is the play today.
  15. San Francisco +110 and Toronto EV today. Also kinda like the Pirates as a small dog and might close my eyes, play the Orioles +200, and not watch that game.
  16. I’m a Royals fan that bet on Cleveland, and even I didn’t make it through that marathon but woke to a larger account balance. Speaking of the Indians, you can still get them in the +200 range to win the AL Central. They’ve cut it to 2 games, so I like that value a lot. I haven’t bet it yet, because I’ve got a bunch on them over 90 1\2 wins and don’t know if I want to add to my liability, but likely will...that +200 is juicy. +600 on the Nats to catch the Braves for the NL East is worth a flyer, too.
  17. A little more juice than I like to lay, but Cleveland is in a good spot tonight so I'll swallow the -150. Edit: By the time I logged in it was -140...I'll use that for the purposes of scoring.
  18. I don’t even care about this game, and it’s awesome.
  19. Pirates +145 in Chicago today with Archer on the mound.
  20. The break comes at a good time for my guys...they've looked tired and we've had a restless clubhouse the last month.
  21. Two today pre break... Phillies -110 Reds +115
  22. They got an Applebee’s over there?
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