-
Posts
6557 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Store
Downloads
Recruiting - 2020
2019-2020 Football Season
Football
Entertainment
Sports
News and Business
Cloak Room
Transfer Portal
Recruiting
Events
Everything posted by Skipper
-
Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
Skipper replied to Wulaw Horn's topic in Football
I think this will just end up driving playoff expansion and networks incentivizing it. There is just way too much money to be made (i) marquee OOC games, (ii) auto-qualifier "play-in" games replacing championship weekend and (iii) expanded playoff inventory. After this committee there is no chance they piss all 3 of those buckets of money away. They will cut a deal that somehow doesn't significantly penalize the marquee OOC (likely more guaranteed spots for SEC/BIG). -
Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
Skipper replied to Wulaw Horn's topic in Football
Fan Duel playoff odds are strongly implying (i) Bama will be in regardless of outcome and (ii) Notre Dame is in as long as BYU loses (and out if ND wins). The odds strongly imply Bama at 9, ND 10 and BYU 11 tonight. And less strongly imply Miami at 12, Texas at 13 and Vandy at 14. -
Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
Skipper replied to Wulaw Horn's topic in Football
I'll still be shocked but both Sark and the SID did a great job making our case. -
Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
Skipper replied to Wulaw Horn's topic in Football
I hadn't seen that drop yet, but if correct, I'm pretty sure that means Texas-OSU and Texas - Aggy are top 2 rated games of the season. As others have noted, ABC does not want to lose future rights to Texas/OSU, Michigan and ND. That is why you see Herbstreit and others beating the drum. -
Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
Skipper replied to Wulaw Horn's topic in Football
Exactly. Every relevant program needs to tell ND to fuck off. If they want a gifted path to the playoff every year playing the service academies and other shitty teams for an incredibly boring regular season, that's just fine. But if they want to play marquee games, they can join a conference like everyone else. -
The Dallas Stars 2025-2026 Season Thread: We can haz cup?
Skipper replied to Longhorn_Fan68's topic in Other Sports
Bichsel needs surgery and out 6 weeks. Probably good news. I was at game Sunday and was worried he was done for the season given his reaction. -
Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
Skipper replied to Wulaw Horn's topic in Football
You are talking about a committee comprised of former coaches that appreciate the calendar is a mess which is causing the changes before the playoffs + AD's who appreciate their school could get f'd if their team is in a similar position with a hot coach and would never want to set that precedent. I don't think any chance a committee with that background punishes Ole Miss regardless of whether they should or not. -
Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
Skipper replied to Wulaw Horn's topic in Football
I would love to see what they do if Bama is completely non-competitive and the game is essentially over by the 2nd quarter. Would be interesting for sure. -
Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
Skipper replied to Wulaw Horn's topic in Football
It's one thing we are definitely good at. Just ask Aaron Rodgers. -
Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
Skipper replied to Wulaw Horn's topic in Football
Assuming we don't have a realistic path once rankings released tomorrow, I'm absolutely rooting for BYU, Bama, and Duke. Let's just have mass chaos and blow the current structure up. -
Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
Skipper replied to Wulaw Horn's topic in Football
Slight movement within the playoff seeding should be obvious and expected. But as much as I have questions about Bama, I don't think they should get punished and pushed out for winning the SEC tiebreaker and playing an additional game while A&M and Ole Miss sit at home. I think that would set a terrible precedent and likely end the concept of Conference Championship Games (which I think is inevitable regardless). I can't imagine a scenario where the SEC gets 4 or 5 teams in but the team that finished 2nd in the league is left out. If we have an expanded playoff with 4 AQ, I hope this weekend turns into SEC #1 and #2 are auto admits and then #3 plays (at home) against #6 and #4 plays (at home) against #5 for the auto bids. Or have 4 play-in games (1-8, 2-7, 3-6, 4-5). That would make this weekend must see TV. -
Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
Skipper replied to Wulaw Horn's topic in Football
What's funny in all of this is that BYU actually has a strong SOR (#6) and a better SOS than ND, OSU, Indiana and Ole Miss. I wouldn't have thought that but they drew a bunch of the good not great Big 12 teams. If they get beat by Tech in a close game this week, BYU probably still has a better resume than ND and yet ND is already slotted above them. So they do in fact ignore the loss column for Big 12 teams LOL. I wonder if Tech could end up getting bumped if they lose because their SOS is by far the worst of anyone in the conversation. -
Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
Skipper replied to Wulaw Horn's topic in Football
It's never made sense where the committee has had them ranked. They did it to create a H2H buffer against Miami hoping it would all work itself out and it hasn't. I don't know how the committee can walk it back now but ND should feel uneasy as their resume doesn't stack up. -
Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
Skipper replied to Wulaw Horn's topic in Football
The dumbest thing about it all is that they start the ranking shows way too early with limited data (for TV reasons) and then end up backing themselves into corners because they can't even be consistent week to week much less year to year. But I agree they do whatever they want and at the end of the day will always try to find the path of least resistance. As someone mentioned, it wouldn't shock me at all if they put both Texas and Vandy ahead of Miami for the sole purpose of creating a fake buffer to continue to ignore the H2H with Notre Dame. They will decide who they want in and then reverse-engineer the rest for their talking points. -
Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
Skipper replied to Wulaw Horn's topic in Football
WTF does this even mean. If you don't like national media, talk shows, narratives, politicking, etc. nobody is forcing you to consume any of it. But of course people care about the games. Were you at DKR Friday night? Because I was and it was fucking awesome. And what you are bitching about is what makes CFB the complete opposite of "just another professional league" in every way imaginable. Pro leagues don't leave playoffs up to fucking random committee. Pro teams don't have calendars that make zero logistical sense where you are roster building during the playoffs. College Football and the shit show that it is is about as unique of a sport that exists. -
Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
Skipper replied to Wulaw Horn's topic in Football
I think bumping the SEC runner up out of the playoffs because they played an extra game against a top 3 team would set its own horrible precedent. The reality is, however this goes, it's giving Sankey tons of leverage in negotiating playoff expansion. It's not a coincidence that the SEC went to a 9 game schedule the day after the playoffs announced SOR would be a a big factor. And now the committee is just ignoring this. Particularly with respect to Notre Dame. I actually think Notre Dame is one of a handful of teams that could win it all so I get it, but placing them as high is they are is just willfully ignoring their shitty schedule. In the committee's defense, it's an extremely unique year where there just weren't any upsets the last few weeks so there are more playoff worthy teams. I think last year a 9-3 Texas team would have gotten in rather easily over SMU. -
What do you not understand about it? The calendar is completely idiotic and should be item #1 to be addressed when it comes to fixing college football, but it currently is what it is and you really don't have a choice but to make hires now to have a chance at setting yourself up for 2026.
-
Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
Skipper replied to Wulaw Horn's topic in Football
This is essentially his attempt at a poll or committee based approach and then he says he would adjust for head to head. I still think he weights losses a bit too heavily for my preferred approach but haven't dove into this model in detail. He has all kinds of interesting stuff though that is fun to follow over the season. -
Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
Skipper replied to Wulaw Horn's topic in Football
Here is an example of what I'm talking about. Kelly Ford which has dozens of weekly breakdowns based on both his own model and other stats and one of which is a "Schedule Difficulty" chart which is the # of expected wins the #12 Power Rated team would have against a given team's schedule. So this chart breaks down aggregate win probabilities across the entire schedule for what would be the last team in if there was a playoff of top 12 teams by power rating. Texas is 10th overall in schedule difficulty with 7.8 wins. To put it in perspective, Tech is 58th at 9.6. Note Texas is the only team in playoff contention with a top 10 schedule difficulty based on this metric. Doesn't that tell you something? That if you consistently play games you are favored to win 3-7 points, you are much more likely to lose 1 or 2 compared to if you are playing regularly as a 20 point favorite? It's math. Your schedule matters if you have a committee that is going to count losses. -
Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
Skipper replied to Wulaw Horn's topic in Football
Season Ticket holder, alumni and fan here. If playoff stays at 12, I would be completely fine replacing these games with Syracuse or equivalent. And CDC isn't stupid and understands the "math" arguments that myself and others are trying to make to the "dur.... just beat Florida" crowd. We will have plenty of marquee home games in conference. The reality is Sankey has to be pissed watching the committee do exactly what they said they would not do (count losses) and only solution to protect the SEC with a 9 game conference slate is expansion. Again, if I were to place a bet, I would think Sankey is absolutely willing to go to 24 (not his public stance) as long as the Big 12 and ACC don't get 4 auto qualifiers. All of them. -
Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
Skipper replied to Wulaw Horn's topic in Football
This is just outdated thinking. Particularly with the SEC going to a 9 game schedule going forward. There are going to be 3 loss SEC teams every year that are objectively better and would be favored on a neutral field over 1 loss ACC and Big 12 teams. Particularly those that play dogshit both OOC and a significantly watered down conference schedule comparatively. -
Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
Skipper replied to Wulaw Horn's topic in Football
It's 100% about OSU being scheduled. It's fucking math. In the SEC we are going to play games damn near every week that fall somewhere in the 40% - 70% win expectancy unlike a team like Tech that has an SEC roster and has a 65% to 90% win expectancy week to week. You don't schedule another 45% - 55% win expectancy game if the committee is going to 'count losses'. Bitch about losing @UGA and @Florida all you want but those losses will happen in this conference every year to someone that can stay in the playoff if they schedule smart OOC. The rosters are too comparable and the floor a lot higher compared to other conferences. This is not an opinion. Just look at the fucking point spreads every single week for SEC games compared to every other conference. It's NFL type parity. Why did the Eagles lose to the shitty ass Giants and Mid Cowboys? Because it happens to someone damn near every week in the NFL when point spreads are 8 or less. Get used to it. Again, what is the upside? Where would we be ranked today if we had beaten OSU? Where would be ranked today is we had scheduled Syracuse instead and beaten then. -
Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
Skipper replied to Wulaw Horn's topic in Football
This is completely irrelevant. "Close" or improbably Wins are going to happen to multiple teams in the playoffs every single year. Looking at post-game win expectancy, UGA could easily be a 3 or 4 loss team, OU could easily be a 4 loss team, but they aren't and nobody is talking about that shit. -
Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
Skipper replied to Wulaw Horn's topic in Football
I want to emphasize that the realization of this fact by the masses is the only reason I still think we have a shot this year if a couple of upsets happen (and why Michigan clearly in no matter what if they beat OSU). The networks WANT games like Texas/Ohio State, OU/Michigan. The SEC and BIG want to sell that inventory to the networks for Big $$. If it becomes clear that despite the "strength of record" BS, the committee will ignore and group losses, this high end OCC inventory ceases to exist, then everyone loses $$. So if we win there will be pressure internally on members (networks + BIG/SEC commissioners). Obviously - I have no doubt Sankey is taking this into account as he's negotiating playoff expansion. This is why despite Sankey being publicly opposed, I won't be surprised at all if we end up with expansion at 24 and something like 4 SEC, 4 BIG, 2 B12, 2 ACC, 1 Group 5 Auto qualifiers and the rest open. Top 8 get a bye top 2 SEC, 2 BIG get auto byes (TBD remainder of byes). And then that would set up "Championship weekend" in the SEC and BIG to be 3 vs. 6 and 4 vs. 5 for the remaining 2 auto qualifier spots. -
Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
Skipper replied to Wulaw Horn's topic in Football
This. I don't think the debate is as much about "we should have beat Florida", "we don't pass the eye test", "this team isn't consistent enough to make a run". All of this is true. The takeaway is there is absolutely no fucking reason to play an SEC schedule and a top tier out of conference team we have a 40% - 60% chance of beating in any given year because the committee is never going to stop grouping teams by and "counting" losses. We absolutely need to replace those games with Power 4 Opponents we have a 65-80% chance of beating in any given year. Think about it this way: Where would be ranked right now if we beat OSU and otherwise have the same record? Probably #8. Where would be ranked right now if we played Syracuse and had same record? Probably #8. There just isn't material upside to schedule hard games OOC when you already are guaranteed to play top 10 teams in conference.
Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Futbol ... 🤫995🤫 ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Business and Markets ... Cloak Room ... Help ... For Sale ... Board Discussion ... Subscribe!... Donate!... COOKIE MONSTER!