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Everything posted by Skipper
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Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
Skipper replied to Wulaw Horn's topic in Football
This is essentially his attempt at a poll or committee based approach and then he says he would adjust for head to head. I still think he weights losses a bit too heavily for my preferred approach but haven't dove into this model in detail. He has all kinds of interesting stuff though that is fun to follow over the season. -
Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
Skipper replied to Wulaw Horn's topic in Football
Here is an example of what I'm talking about. Kelly Ford which has dozens of weekly breakdowns based on both his own model and other stats and one of which is a "Schedule Difficulty" chart which is the # of expected wins the #12 Power Rated team would have against a given team's schedule. So this chart breaks down aggregate win probabilities across the entire schedule for what would be the last team in if there was a playoff of top 12 teams by power rating. Texas is 10th overall in schedule difficulty with 7.8 wins. To put it in perspective, Tech is 58th at 9.6. Note Texas is the only team in playoff contention with a top 10 schedule difficulty based on this metric. Doesn't that tell you something? That if you consistently play games you are favored to win 3-7 points, you are much more likely to lose 1 or 2 compared to if you are playing regularly as a 20 point favorite? It's math. Your schedule matters if you have a committee that is going to count losses. -
Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
Skipper replied to Wulaw Horn's topic in Football
Season Ticket holder, alumni and fan here. If playoff stays at 12, I would be completely fine replacing these games with Syracuse or equivalent. And CDC isn't stupid and understands the "math" arguments that myself and others are trying to make to the "dur.... just beat Florida" crowd. We will have plenty of marquee home games in conference. The reality is Sankey has to be pissed watching the committee do exactly what they said they would not do (count losses) and only solution to protect the SEC with a 9 game conference slate is expansion. Again, if I were to place a bet, I would think Sankey is absolutely willing to go to 24 (not his public stance) as long as the Big 12 and ACC don't get 4 auto qualifiers. All of them. -
Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
Skipper replied to Wulaw Horn's topic in Football
This is just outdated thinking. Particularly with the SEC going to a 9 game schedule going forward. There are going to be 3 loss SEC teams every year that are objectively better and would be favored on a neutral field over 1 loss ACC and Big 12 teams. Particularly those that play dogshit both OOC and a significantly watered down conference schedule comparatively. -
Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
Skipper replied to Wulaw Horn's topic in Football
It's 100% about OSU being scheduled. It's fucking math. In the SEC we are going to play games damn near every week that fall somewhere in the 40% - 70% win expectancy unlike a team like Tech that has an SEC roster and has a 65% to 90% win expectancy week to week. You don't schedule another 45% - 55% win expectancy game if the committee is going to 'count losses'. Bitch about losing @UGA and @Florida all you want but those losses will happen in this conference every year to someone that can stay in the playoff if they schedule smart OOC. The rosters are too comparable and the floor a lot higher compared to other conferences. This is not an opinion. Just look at the fucking point spreads every single week for SEC games compared to every other conference. It's NFL type parity. Why did the Eagles lose to the shitty ass Giants and Mid Cowboys? Because it happens to someone damn near every week in the NFL when point spreads are 8 or less. Get used to it. Again, what is the upside? Where would we be ranked today if we had beaten OSU? Where would be ranked today is we had scheduled Syracuse instead and beaten then. -
Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
Skipper replied to Wulaw Horn's topic in Football
This is completely irrelevant. "Close" or improbably Wins are going to happen to multiple teams in the playoffs every single year. Looking at post-game win expectancy, UGA could easily be a 3 or 4 loss team, OU could easily be a 4 loss team, but they aren't and nobody is talking about that shit. -
Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
Skipper replied to Wulaw Horn's topic in Football
I want to emphasize that the realization of this fact by the masses is the only reason I still think we have a shot this year if a couple of upsets happen (and why Michigan clearly in no matter what if they beat OSU). The networks WANT games like Texas/Ohio State, OU/Michigan. The SEC and BIG want to sell that inventory to the networks for Big $$. If it becomes clear that despite the "strength of record" BS, the committee will ignore and group losses, this high end OCC inventory ceases to exist, then everyone loses $$. So if we win there will be pressure internally on members (networks + BIG/SEC commissioners). Obviously - I have no doubt Sankey is taking this into account as he's negotiating playoff expansion. This is why despite Sankey being publicly opposed, I won't be surprised at all if we end up with expansion at 24 and something like 4 SEC, 4 BIG, 2 B12, 2 ACC, 1 Group 5 Auto qualifiers and the rest open. Top 8 get a bye top 2 SEC, 2 BIG get auto byes (TBD remainder of byes). And then that would set up "Championship weekend" in the SEC and BIG to be 3 vs. 6 and 4 vs. 5 for the remaining 2 auto qualifier spots. -
Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
Skipper replied to Wulaw Horn's topic in Football
This. I don't think the debate is as much about "we should have beat Florida", "we don't pass the eye test", "this team isn't consistent enough to make a run". All of this is true. The takeaway is there is absolutely no fucking reason to play an SEC schedule and a top tier out of conference team we have a 40% - 60% chance of beating in any given year because the committee is never going to stop grouping teams by and "counting" losses. We absolutely need to replace those games with Power 4 Opponents we have a 65-80% chance of beating in any given year. Think about it this way: Where would be ranked right now if we beat OSU and otherwise have the same record? Probably #8. Where would be ranked right now if we played Syracuse and had same record? Probably #8. There just isn't material upside to schedule hard games OOC when you already are guaranteed to play top 10 teams in conference. -
Texas Recruiting Notes 2026: Boulevard of Broken Bagmen
Skipper replied to texifornia's topic in 🤫$9.95🤫
At haven't been following cycle this closely but I think it's probably becoming obvious having a material portion of your salary cap allocated to 5 star freshman sitting on the bench isn't a good use of funds. Need a mix of developmental guys happy with a scholarship and chance to work their way into being paid like a starter if they develop + proven talent in the portal. -
I think Phillips is going to be damn good. Seems like he has pretty much won that spot at this point. Manny has been great all season. Agreed 100% that if Reed can beat us with downfield throws tip your cap. Have to play the middle of the field much better than we have been.
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It can't help. Defense definitely hasn't looked the same ever since playing like 90 snaps against Kentucky.
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Haven't read a good defensive breakdown post Arky and was hoping something was linked here. I fully realize Arky has one of the better offenses in the nation and that we were missing Hill, but from the stands, I was surprised how easily they were moving it on us most of the first half combined with shit tackling and receivers running free. Taffe had one of his worst games I can recall. Hopefully that was just rust and he'll be better this weekend and hopefully Hill can play, because we're going to have to have a better defensive performance than what we showed most of Arky game to win Friday.
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Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
Skipper replied to Wulaw Horn's topic in Football
I like this team more than most of this board. But after 2 years of being a really good road team, we have pretty much consistently played poorly on the road this season. That was my point. I don't trust this team to go on the road and put together 4 quarters against anyone much less a top 10 team. Sure they have the potential to do so but we just haven't done it once this season to date. Neutral site? I would give us a punchers chance against anyone. -
Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
Skipper replied to Wulaw Horn's topic in Football
Outside of seeing exactly where they slotted us, I'm most interested to see what they do with Utah this week after giving up 470 rushing yards to Kansas State at home. I mentioned the first rankings set that I thought they put them too high which could cause an issue down the road given that they had to keep the Tech/BYU winner ahead of them and that is playing out. This is an opportunity to move them back if they want after a shitty performance in a home W. Of course, the problem with moving them back is it gets Miami closer and reinforces their Miami/ND problem. -
@ Notre Dame helps. And the bottom tier of the SEC all look like a middle tier team in any other conference, so comparatively, their schedule looks tough even though an easy SEC schedule.
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I mean it was reviewed and upheld. By definition it probably met the targeting standard despite the clear lack of intent and the fact it the receiver wasn't 5'8 it would have been a perfect form tackle.
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I would be shocked. That LSU team appears to be completely checked out. At least I assume that's the case given the 3 point home W against Western Kentucky
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Unfortunately we have way too many shitty fair weather fans that dumped a bunch of inventory on secondary market after the UGA loss. I expect there will be a bunch.
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Hopefully Hill can go. Pretty obvious he was missed yesterday. And no Smith for the first half.
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That's the problem with the play. If he was a normal size receiver that hit is on the tape as a great defensive play. I've always hated that the rule isn't adjusted for intent or form and only looks at outcome. Can't remember who it was but years back someone slid or ducked last second right into a helmet of our defender who had zero time to react and got dinged with targeting.
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Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
Skipper replied to Wulaw Horn's topic in Football
We can all feel a certain way about our season and given what this team has shown on the road I'm not sure we could win a first round game against any potential opponent. But the reality is, if Texas wins it absolutely has a playoff caliber resume considering strength of schedule. I want us to win for all the obvious reasons but would really like to force a committee decision that will clarify how we should schedule going forward. I love playing the big OOC games but we absolutely shouldn't do it if it's clear the committee isn't going account for vast scheduling discrepancies. I want us to be 9-3 and look at the final rankings and project (i) where would we be slotted 10-2 with a W against Ohio State, (ii) where would we be slotted 10-2 with a W against Sam Houston (replacing OSU) and (iii) where we are actually slotted. If we don't think there is a meaningful difference between the first 2 scenarios (i.e., just at the front of the 2 loss teams so maybe a couple of spots) and 9-3 with the OSU loss slots us out all together, it becomes pretty clear there is no reason to schedule tough OOC. -
Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
Skipper replied to Wulaw Horn's topic in Football
I don't think whatever model they use is public. -
Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
Skipper replied to Wulaw Horn's topic in Football
Depending on how it shakes out if we win the committee may very well have to confront the fact that keeping Texas out will result in significant scheduling changes for all teams (and a huge blow to the networks that are trying to push for more marquee OOC inventory). I don't think we know definitively what they would do on the final vote. Again, Texas-OSU is the highest rated game of the year to date. Networks WANT a 9 game conference schedule + top OOC games. Conference want the same so they can charge higher rights fees. Sankey went to 9 + 1 on the basis that strength of record matters going forward. If committee ignores that and 9-3 Texas is left out in a scenario where it is abundantly clear a 10-2 Texas with a win against Sam Houston would be in, it throws all of that out the window. I think there will be a lot of pressure on the committee to avoid that. It's why I want to see the last spot come down to a 10-2 Vandy or a 9-3 Texas. That would pretty much definitively answer the question given the H2H win if not "counting losses". Klatt had a segment on this several weeks back. He said there was a points based model floated internally at some point where a loss to a top 5 teams is worth more than a win to a bottom tier team. But if they aren't going to follow that, fine, let everyone know so SEC teams stop risking seasons scheduling 50/50 OOC games years in advance. -
Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
Skipper replied to Wulaw Horn's topic in Football
People that don't understand this don't understand statistical probability. We'll see at the final selection but so far I think it's clear that the whole "we are using strength of record" as a metric has been BS. That's the entire reason the SEC went to 9 games. I think it's starting to be clear we absolute should not be scheduling elite teams OOC. Inserting a game you have a 40-60% chance of winning in any given year compared to a game you have a 95% chance of winning when the committee still inexplicably "counts losses" just doesn't make sense. -
Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
Skipper replied to Wulaw Horn's topic in Football
I think preferable for aggy to be ranked high regardless. Games did not break well for us at all last weekend (especially ours with the margin of defeat) so agreed with the consensus very unlikely can squeeze in even if we win out. I think the best path might actually be Auburn beating Bama (which isn't impossible). I think we would slot above Bama if so. But in that scenario, even if Vandy wins out, Texas has a top 5 win against Aggy, top 8 win against OU, top 14 win against Vandy with losses to probably #1 and #3 or #4 (assuming UGA beats GT) + FL. As I stated earlier in this thread I think, I would absolutely love for the committee to be in a scenario where they have to choose between a 2 loss Vandy and 3 loss Texas for the final spot just to see what they would do. Either they take Texas and piss the rest of the Texas hating world or tell all of CFB you should not schedule tough OOC games (in direct conflict with message TV wants them to send). That would be fascinating to me and I think they take Texas. I don't think this is a playoff worthy team but all things being equal would love to see a scenario where we get a shot vs. a meaningless bowl game.
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