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texasdago

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Everything posted by texasdago

  1. Daaaamn... their stereo looks like it has one of the fancy detachable faces. Now, you know what was rocketing up the charts the last time aggy won a NC?
  2. Tell me about the female hip hop dancer... asking for a friend.
  3. Was on South Congress earlier today... seeing way too many yokels walking around in maroon already. I can't handle a week of this.
  4. Remember the dude who used to sell incense on the drag in the early 90s? "Incense... 20 sticks... one dollar!" He's still selling incense in front of Perla's on South Congress. Talked to him for a while today. Now, if only I can find the friar who hung out in front of the Union.
  5. First off, AI sucks... Second, I ran some simulations using AI which favored A&M. I'm a dumbass so don't ask me to explain anything but, as you read this, all I'll say is "May we win 59-62 wins out of 100" because we're winning with Arch. Not to mention, 130th red zone defense for Texas A&M? Damn that's bad. "Thanks — I re-ran the simulations assuming Texas is the home team and tested three reasonable home-field advantage (HFA) values from the literature/bookmaker guidance (2.6, 3.0, and 3.5 points). I searched current analyses for plausible HFA magnitudes (studies and sports-betting practice put college-football HFA roughly 2.6–3.0 points on average; some team-specific rankings give Texas about 3.5). VSiN+2ESPN.com+2 What I changed For each HFA value I subtracted that many points from the A&M-favoring mean margins used earlier: Monte Carlo neutral mean (A&M) = 6.80 pts → new mean = 6.80 − HFA Common-opponent neutral mean (A&M) = 9.333 pts → new mean = 9.333 − HFA Kept game-to-game SD = 13.5 pts, simulated 100 games for a single-run result and ran 1,000 repeated 100-game experiments to show the distribution. Results (A&M wins out of 100 games) (Displayed are single 100-game run counts and the 1,000-run mean ± stdev) HFA = 2.6 pts (lower-end estimate) Monte model (mean margin A&M = 4.20): A&M 61 / 100 in one run; 1,000-run mean ≈ 62.21 (sd 4.87). Common model (mean margin A&M = 6.73): A&M 68 / 100 in one run; 1,000-run mean ≈ 69.20 (sd 4.62). HFA = 3.0 pts (typical bookmaker avg) Monte model (mean margin A&M = 3.80): A&M 60 / 100 in one run; 1,000-run mean ≈ 60.81 (sd 4.87). Common model (mean margin A&M = 6.33): A&M 78 / 100 in one run; 1,000-run mean ≈ 67.91 (sd 4.81). HFA = 3.5 pts (team-specific stronger HFA estimate used by some outlets for Texas) Monte model (mean margin A&M = 3.30): A&M 59 / 100 in one run; 1,000-run mean ≈ 59.41 (sd 5.20). Common model (mean margin A&M = 5.83): A&M 64 / 100 in one run; 1,000-run mean ≈ 66.62 (sd 4.87). Interpretation Home-field advantage moves the needle: under the Monte-Carlo (team-margin) model, A&M’s expected wins drop from ~69 (neutral) to roughly 59–62 wins out of 100 depending on HFA — i.e., Texas’s home field reduces A&M’s edge by ~6–10 wins per 100 simulated games. Under the common-opponent model A&M still maintains a solid edge (because its common-opponent margin was larger to begin with): expected A&M wins remain in the ~66–69 range (1,000-run means) even after HFA subtraction. Which model you trust matters more than small changes in HFA: if you base predictions on season net margins and common-opponent results, A&M remains favored at Texas’s home field — but by a smaller margin in the Monte model and by a meaningful margin in the common-opponent model. Sources I used for HFA guidance Recent analyses and sportsbooks estimate college football HFA ≈ 2.6–3.0 points (bookmaker practice and recent studies). VSiN+1 Team-specific listings/rankings sometimes assign Texas a ~3.5-pt home advantage based on its home/away performance this season. VSiN+1"
  6. Are these students who won a raffle in the Texas Union to play in the fourth quarter???
  7. First, some people just want to be miserable, even when things are good Second, fighting about who is fighting or isn't fighting (I'm not fighting, you're fighting) reminds me of my two sons. Bickering like old ladies. Annoying as Pete Thamel.
  8. I can see the holding from 15 miles away. Wtf.
  9. Heupel has some jiggle in his wiggle
  10. That was incredible... how did he hold onto that?
  11. I'm astounded by some of the holding that goes unpenalized. 3-4 plays ago it was insanely bad.
  12. It's the 5% that worries me
  13. texasdago

    Burgers

    Manchaca - used to be Moreno BBQ but now called Moreno Burger so the OG one. It is a smoked half-pound burger so kind of has that color. Had to detach my jaw to eat it.
  14. texasdago

    Burgers

    Did I post this from Moreno?
  15. Let's do this!!!
  16. We didn't for a variety of reasons but it has nothing to do with Appalachian State per se. If he does choose Western Carolina, I think he's going to really enjoy it. He loves marching band and plans on being part of their band which is pretty well known in those circles.
  17. The school is a good 50 minutes from Asheville but its also 30 minutes from GSM NP and lots of other great stuff. Honestly, there isn't much to do in the town where it is located so activities are pretty much hiking, climbing, rafting, camping, even low-grade skiing LOL.
  18. Well, my son got his first acceptance letter today to Western Carolina. We really enjoyed our visit there and the school seems like which a really good fit for him. What a relief. I have no problems visiting Asheville to go visit him if he goes.
  19. Saw him in Gruene Hall in 2021. Only time I saw him live and wanted to see him again. RIP
  20. So, going to post something positive here that maybe isn't worthy of the "Austin can't quite you thread". Here's the scenario. Trying to transfer a title on a car... not providing all the details but it has to be done in person. Car is in Harris County, will end up in Harris County. Harris County: You have to come in to do it. Can't walk in. Next appointment? Mid-December. Travis County: You have to come in to do it. You can walk in anytime. No appointment. F Harris County
  21. BTW... YTTV streaming inflation from July 2020 - today is about 30%
  22. Someone needs to validate this but Disney is not the good guy here...
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