First off, AI sucks...
Second, I ran some simulations using AI which favored A&M. I'm a dumbass so don't ask me to explain anything but, as you read this, all I'll say is "May we win 59-62 wins out of 100" because we're winning with Arch. Not to mention, 130th red zone defense for Texas A&M? Damn that's bad.
"Thanks — I re-ran the simulations assuming Texas is the home team and tested three reasonable home-field advantage (HFA) values from the literature/bookmaker guidance (2.6, 3.0, and 3.5 points). I searched current analyses for plausible HFA magnitudes (studies and sports-betting practice put college-football HFA roughly 2.6–3.0 points on average; some team-specific rankings give Texas about 3.5). VSiN+2ESPN.com+2
What I changed
For each HFA value I subtracted that many points from the A&M-favoring mean margins used earlier:
Monte Carlo neutral mean (A&M) = 6.80 pts → new mean = 6.80 − HFA
Common-opponent neutral mean (A&M) = 9.333 pts → new mean = 9.333 − HFA
Kept game-to-game SD = 13.5 pts, simulated 100 games for a single-run result and ran 1,000 repeated 100-game experiments to show the distribution.
Results (A&M wins out of 100 games)
(Displayed are single 100-game run counts and the 1,000-run mean ± stdev)
HFA = 2.6 pts (lower-end estimate)
Monte model (mean margin A&M = 4.20): A&M 61 / 100 in one run; 1,000-run mean ≈ 62.21 (sd 4.87).
Common model (mean margin A&M = 6.73): A&M 68 / 100 in one run; 1,000-run mean ≈ 69.20 (sd 4.62).
HFA = 3.0 pts (typical bookmaker avg)
Monte model (mean margin A&M = 3.80): A&M 60 / 100 in one run; 1,000-run mean ≈ 60.81 (sd 4.87).
Common model (mean margin A&M = 6.33): A&M 78 / 100 in one run; 1,000-run mean ≈ 67.91 (sd 4.81).
HFA = 3.5 pts (team-specific stronger HFA estimate used by some outlets for Texas)
Monte model (mean margin A&M = 3.30): A&M 59 / 100 in one run; 1,000-run mean ≈ 59.41 (sd 5.20).
Common model (mean margin A&M = 5.83): A&M 64 / 100 in one run; 1,000-run mean ≈ 66.62 (sd 4.87).
Interpretation
Home-field advantage moves the needle: under the Monte-Carlo (team-margin) model, A&M’s expected wins drop from ~69 (neutral) to roughly 59–62 wins out of 100 depending on HFA — i.e., Texas’s home field reduces A&M’s edge by ~6–10 wins per 100 simulated games.
Under the common-opponent model A&M still maintains a solid edge (because its common-opponent margin was larger to begin with): expected A&M wins remain in the ~66–69 range (1,000-run means) even after HFA subtraction.
Which model you trust matters more than small changes in HFA: if you base predictions on season net margins and common-opponent results, A&M remains favored at Texas’s home field — but by a smaller margin in the Monte model and by a meaningful margin in the common-opponent model.
Sources I used for HFA guidance
Recent analyses and sportsbooks estimate college football HFA ≈ 2.6–3.0 points (bookmaker practice and recent studies). VSiN+1
Team-specific listings/rankings sometimes assign Texas a ~3.5-pt home advantage based on its home/away performance this season. VSiN+1"