SydneyCarton

I love it. I've phone banked. I've been vocal. I love your confidence. Tell me, and this is a serious question, would you place a $50,000 bet on the election outcome? And if not, why not? Fortunately I have a direct method of control over my investments, and they're all at this point different funds. Although, I did make the mistake of betting in some military industrial complex funds thinking that the war in Ukraine, and the standard Republican support of military spending would make that a solid long term play. Might need to revisit that shit if Trump wins. Feeling good about my funds that cover general household goods, however.

I'm sure they were...at the time. Also I'm quoting this after your comments about the Canadien PM candidate. You say he's super right and MAGA, but I took a stroll through his wikipedia, and whiel I saw some MAGA type red flags, we'd fucking kill for a Republican party with some of his policies. Pro Abortion. Pro Gay Marriage. Pro Immigration. The bill clinton method of balancing a budget. Shit. Did he use a hard R or something?

My financial advisor has been telling me for 9 years that a Democratic victory is going to ruin the stock market. Wrong every time so far. But for all the credit given to "Wall Street" and their prescience, you'd think they'd be overwhelmingly preaching the Biden/Harris polices to teh high heaven. We've got our soft landing, the stock market is booming, manufacturing is on the rise thanks to their policies, and everyone is fucking making money. And yet, they still favor Trump. At some point, you have to question if these people are deliberately tipping the scales against their best corporate interests. I guess their stock/bonus at the end of the year trumps corporate profits thanks to the Tax cuts...

As others have said, good luck moving there without cutting a check for a hundreds of thousands to buy into their medical coverage. Cooter has it right. This right here, which is why I've drug my bleeding vagina all over this thread this morning.

I gave up on NV a week or two ago. And that's fine.

I mean, you made it sound like when you encounter them in the wild and politics come up, you go straight for the throat. I assume that incldues mockery

Well, it sure as hell won't be a position they're mocked out of, either.

Or Born in the USA.

There have been plenty of polls that have had good looking crosstabs. My point is, if it was as overwhelming as YOUR GUT says it is, or at least it should be, there are no cross tab that could hide a huge gulf between reality and what the polls currently showing short of "We conducted this national poll by surveying 1,000 people in Montgomery, TX." That's the kind of nonsese it would take. Otherwise damn near every resppectable poll would have Harris up pretty comfortably. But they're not. Saying "These crosstabs" are fucked at this point isn't that much different than the people who say "Trump is winning in every poll." The reality is going to have to be born out, and we KNOW you think Harris is going to blow shit out, and maybe flip Florida, but I think it's concerning that Harris's people, at best, are cautiously optimimistic and think it's going to be close AF based on their own internals. Which brings me back to my initial thoughts; The whiplash between information is jarring, and a ton of fucking people do live in a reality of their own construction, and seem perfectly happy to strap their heads into their ostrich holes using concrete, steel rebar, and fucking adamantium.

I mean, define unfavorably in this context? If you mean they double down because they can't take the ego hit and being wrong and the negative feedback, sure. If you mean they snap out of their reverie, well, we have mountains of evidence that is not really the case. The backfire effect, purports that cognitive dissonance and denial literally are hardwired into our brains. Again, if these people had seen the light, wouldn't the chasm in polling be wide enough that no amount of herding could hide it?

How does he feel about Crypto? Should we get him in a thread with Bernorange?

I mean, I'm sure I can't tell when I eat them at restuarants, but yeah, I eat the pasture raised organic eggs, or regular organic at HEB for $4.50 a dozen. That extra buck fifty in either direction really doesn't show up on my monthly budget much, so I admit to being perplexed by the outrage. Of course, I'm not raising a family of three teenage boys or anyhthing like that, so who knows.

Listen, I love all those data points, but lets not pretend midterm elections, or any election, are the same as presidential elections. We all know it and act accordingly, and pretending like that fucking pussbang isn't on the ticket dragging more of his low IQ dipshits to vote in this election is absurd. I choose believe you don't actually think I live in a complete fantasy world. But I do believe you know enough about where the media and social media have driven a stake throgh reality for many people means that, if not fantasy, at the very least there are mulitple realities that people choose to subscribe to at this point in time. Trump has been talking shit about people for 8 years now, and for some of those people he's increased their vote share (looking at you, latin men). And yet his popularity never seems to drop below a certain threshold. People don't believe he's a nazi. People you and I both know, don't view January 6th as something other than a few stupid hillbillies doing stupid hillbilly things, and it's not representative of Trump or the Republican party at all. So I've got to tell you, I agree with one thing you said, and it's definetly that people live in a fucking fantasyland. I don't personally think that's me, but shit, at this point anything is possible.

I like Galveston fine, but I hope PR never hires your ass for their tourism board. “It’s like Galveston, but you have to fly there!” Ooof.

Voting on something they effects you should be more energizing, YOU HOPE. But you don’t know, because you’re not broken. also, the Hate not being energized in 2016? Did you see what happened in 2016? Trump started normalizing hate and he gained these voters. When Richard Spencer praises Tucker Carlson, and Trump says “good people on both sides” and names the Proud Boys in. A debate, he’s absolutely gaining non voting hate fueled people and getting them to vote. we rejected that knob in 2020 coming off his disaster, but unfortunately propaganda and short memories have us where we are…and for me that’s not certain, or confident. Otherwise we’d be so energized that no amount of polling would be showing anything other than an easy win, regardless of polling flaws or bias.

Saying Hate doesn’t energize people is a fallacy. Hope energizes you because you’re a good person not filled with hate. If a majority of America were that way, we wouldn’t be here. But at this point in don’t think anyone can say Americans aren’t at least 50% filled to the brim with grievances. And those people lash out. And these days voting is a mechanism to lash out. I hope you’re right, but In far from certain, much less confident.

Is he helobious? Because I’ve missed that if so. it’s still fucking jarring.

On the election lab thread Sushi is pretty adamant that it will take a historic democratic turnout in PA and GA to get it done, and over here plenty of people finding evidence things look great. The whiplash is jarring.

Sounds and looks like it’s good for America. Like the rules of the Fairness Doctrine. The only problem is making all of America watch it.

This pollster nailed the only other predictions he has made and he has Kansas moving 10 to the left. Prose is meant to be read, sir.

Yes. WhyNotBoth.gif

lol. I want to now.

I knew what you meant man. Just speaking for myself. I’m not sure I’ll be able to turn off CR bird dogging fascism.

They don’t back down enough to not vote for him though. After the last 8 years, I don’t think I’ll ever be able to disengage again. Not meaningfully. The consequences are too terrifying. Yup.

Wait. Incredulity told us that no one drives to commit crimes. AND NOW WE LEARN THE SAME VEHICLE DROVE TO MULTIPLE LOCATIONS TO COMMIT THE SAME CRIME TWICE!?!? what am I supposed to believe!?!?!