SydneyCarton

Despite having a kid living in Scotland you know it's fucking Clan Macgregor.

This week, I feel like I've bypasses the ledge and just tied a rope arund my wasit to an ugly trump looking gargoyle and I'm just swinging around, waiting for that ugly fuck to topple and crush me or for the rope to just break.

The Election Lab/SushiHorn thread is thattaway, sir. Or Brisket will just invite you onto the ledge.

You know, I'd love to be in a system where we only spend what we have. But he'd be cutting social security, medicare/medicaid, obamacare, education. Every single social safety net and program that improves us as people. And there's no guarantee they would ever return even if we got debt to zero. We have to cut ourselves out of debt, but we hvae to tax ourselves out of debt too.

What, what the fuck? Explain it to me like I'm Helobiou's golden retriever. Elon's been saying this for awhile. Argentina would have to feel the pain, but would end up in a better place. As if they haven't been feeling the pain for fucking years.

I mean, I love the confidence and sentiment, but I feel like you sort of answered "No" with the second sentence. Because there are consequences. And you don't believe SO fully in it that you'd damn the consequences becuase you were going to get free money, which would help your family. Because yeah, 50k is a lot of fucking money. Of course, 100k is a lot more. "If I found free money with no consequences yeah I'd double down!" But there are consequences. Which is the point of the question. He's not far off. Per AI, but you get the idea. Now keep in mind this takes into account the super wealthy. I believe most Americans actually only have a couple weeks or a couple months of savings in the bank I heard on NPR during covid: The average retirement savings for Americans is $87,000, but the average is skewed by a small number of people with much higher balances: Age Average retirement savings Under 35 $18,800 35–44 $141,520 45–54 $313,220 55–64 $537,560 65–74 $609,230 75 or older $462,410

This is what I get by only reading the first paragraph while skimming, and no further. So motherfucker did a 180 since 2022.

I love it. I've phone banked. I've been vocal. I love your confidence. Tell me, and this is a serious question, would you place a $50,000 bet on the election outcome? And if not, why not? Fortunately I have a direct method of control over my investments, and they're all at this point different funds. Although, I did make the mistake of betting in some military industrial complex funds thinking that the war in Ukraine, and the standard Republican support of military spending would make that a solid long term play. Might need to revisit that shit if Trump wins. Feeling good about my funds that cover general household goods, however.

I'm sure they were...at the time. Also I'm quoting this after your comments about the Canadien PM candidate. You say he's super right and MAGA, but I took a stroll through his wikipedia, and whiel I saw some MAGA type red flags, we'd fucking kill for a Republican party with some of his policies. Pro Abortion. Pro Gay Marriage. Pro Immigration. The bill clinton method of balancing a budget. Shit. Did he use a hard R or something?

My financial advisor has been telling me for 9 years that a Democratic victory is going to ruin the stock market. Wrong every time so far. But for all the credit given to "Wall Street" and their prescience, you'd think they'd be overwhelmingly preaching the Biden/Harris polices to teh high heaven. We've got our soft landing, the stock market is booming, manufacturing is on the rise thanks to their policies, and everyone is fucking making money. And yet, they still favor Trump. At some point, you have to question if these people are deliberately tipping the scales against their best corporate interests. I guess their stock/bonus at the end of the year trumps corporate profits thanks to the Tax cuts...

As others have said, good luck moving there without cutting a check for a hundreds of thousands to buy into their medical coverage. Cooter has it right. This right here, which is why I've drug my bleeding vagina all over this thread this morning.

I gave up on NV a week or two ago. And that's fine.

I mean, you made it sound like when you encounter them in the wild and politics come up, you go straight for the throat. I assume that incldues mockery

Well, it sure as hell won't be a position they're mocked out of, either.

Or Born in the USA.

There have been plenty of polls that have had good looking crosstabs. My point is, if it was as overwhelming as YOUR GUT says it is, or at least it should be, there are no cross tab that could hide a huge gulf between reality and what the polls currently showing short of "We conducted this national poll by surveying 1,000 people in Montgomery, TX." That's the kind of nonsese it would take. Otherwise damn near every resppectable poll would have Harris up pretty comfortably. But they're not. Saying "These crosstabs" are fucked at this point isn't that much different than the people who say "Trump is winning in every poll." The reality is going to have to be born out, and we KNOW you think Harris is going to blow shit out, and maybe flip Florida, but I think it's concerning that Harris's people, at best, are cautiously optimimistic and think it's going to be close AF based on their own internals. Which brings me back to my initial thoughts; The whiplash between information is jarring, and a ton of fucking people do live in a reality of their own construction, and seem perfectly happy to strap their heads into their ostrich holes using concrete, steel rebar, and fucking adamantium.

I mean, define unfavorably in this context? If you mean they double down because they can't take the ego hit and being wrong and the negative feedback, sure. If you mean they snap out of their reverie, well, we have mountains of evidence that is not really the case. The backfire effect, purports that cognitive dissonance and denial literally are hardwired into our brains. Again, if these people had seen the light, wouldn't the chasm in polling be wide enough that no amount of herding could hide it?

How does he feel about Crypto? Should we get him in a thread with Bernorange?

I mean, I'm sure I can't tell when I eat them at restuarants, but yeah, I eat the pasture raised organic eggs, or regular organic at HEB for $4.50 a dozen. That extra buck fifty in either direction really doesn't show up on my monthly budget much, so I admit to being perplexed by the outrage. Of course, I'm not raising a family of three teenage boys or anyhthing like that, so who knows.

Listen, I love all those data points, but lets not pretend midterm elections, or any election, are the same as presidential elections. We all know it and act accordingly, and pretending like that fucking pussbang isn't on the ticket dragging more of his low IQ dipshits to vote in this election is absurd. I choose believe you don't actually think I live in a complete fantasy world. But I do believe you know enough about where the media and social media have driven a stake throgh reality for many people means that, if not fantasy, at the very least there are mulitple realities that people choose to subscribe to at this point in time. Trump has been talking shit about people for 8 years now, and for some of those people he's increased their vote share (looking at you, latin men). And yet his popularity never seems to drop below a certain threshold. People don't believe he's a nazi. People you and I both know, don't view January 6th as something other than a few stupid hillbillies doing stupid hillbilly things, and it's not representative of Trump or the Republican party at all. So I've got to tell you, I agree with one thing you said, and it's definetly that people live in a fucking fantasyland. I don't personally think that's me, but shit, at this point anything is possible.

I like Galveston fine, but I hope PR never hires your ass for their tourism board. “It’s like Galveston, but you have to fly there!” Ooof.

Voting on something they effects you should be more energizing, YOU HOPE. But you don’t know, because you’re not broken. also, the Hate not being energized in 2016? Did you see what happened in 2016? Trump started normalizing hate and he gained these voters. When Richard Spencer praises Tucker Carlson, and Trump says “good people on both sides” and names the Proud Boys in. A debate, he’s absolutely gaining non voting hate fueled people and getting them to vote. we rejected that knob in 2020 coming off his disaster, but unfortunately propaganda and short memories have us where we are…and for me that’s not certain, or confident. Otherwise we’d be so energized that no amount of polling would be showing anything other than an easy win, regardless of polling flaws or bias.

Saying Hate doesn’t energize people is a fallacy. Hope energizes you because you’re a good person not filled with hate. If a majority of America were that way, we wouldn’t be here. But at this point in don’t think anyone can say Americans aren’t at least 50% filled to the brim with grievances. And those people lash out. And these days voting is a mechanism to lash out. I hope you’re right, but In far from certain, much less confident.

Is he helobious? Because I’ve missed that if so. it’s still fucking jarring.

On the election lab thread Sushi is pretty adamant that it will take a historic democratic turnout in PA and GA to get it done, and over here plenty of people finding evidence things look great. The whiplash is jarring.