SydneyCarton

Feeling pessimistic as shit today. I was real close to making AZ red. I do think the state of NC is this cycle's GA.

I'm not sure what it does to your assumptions, folks, but it's worth noting the population of Texas has estimated to have increasd by 500-550k since 2020. So you've half a million-ish new voters (based on population growth alone, obviously not including people who have turned 18 in the last 4 years) and netted about 675k new voters. Considering the aforementioned people voting in their first presidential election...turnout don't feel all that great compared to 2020. I've been chastised for this before, but as Longhorn_Fan68 points out, the vastly reduced amount of ballots that can't be counted till after election day will be very much reduced this cycle, and having a call within 24 hours isn't out of the question. The guy literally showed you data otherwise, and we have data from other sources as well. Such as massively increased voter turnout in overwhelmingly rural counties in Texas. Almost like one party got the message to vote early, and also the message that they have to muddy the waters by front loading election night. Oh, I see, you're just wish-casting here. Nevermind.

a 1980 mercedes benz? Is it made out of platinum?

Trump is also the devil they know. They lived with him for 4 years as he banned mulsim entry into their country and stoked race violence in other races. They resoundingly voted against him in 2020, becuase they saw the devil they knew fucking sucked. And they've had a year of being able to listen to the things coming out of his own mouth that he'll do to escalate the situation in Gaza and make things harder on Muslims in the US. So lets not pretend it's some unknowable risk. It's a knowable risk, and that risk also can't stop running his mouth about all the shit he will do when elected. Your illustration here is borderline bad faith. Again, characterizing this as a risky trade-off is absurd at best, intentionally decieving at worst. As Fooster's said, please, outline all the various trade-offs, pros and cons, etc. If they're not acting emotionally, or petulantly, then how do you square the measured and thoughtful response to voting for a man who says "He will increase aid to Israel and he will deport all the mulsims/immigrants/browns from this country, and intern them in the process?

Yes, we've all met Icono. If Trump loses, I don't think there will be fucking shit in the streets. These people are, at heart, all cowards. They won't be flocking to Washington while he's not President-elect or currently in office. They're not going to start a massive, organized protest organically somewhere else in the country. If he loses GA do we think a bunch of fucking racist whities are going to show up and try to Sherman the city of Atlanta? I don't, but holy shit I'm here to see it and will pop the fucking popcorn. Outside of my own amusement, hell, it's probably good news for the country long term for everyone to see what the R party supported. Sure, start some shit in a swing state. Or Florida. See what happens in real time and how that state votes for the next 15 years.

I hope those purity tests for Arab Americans taste real great with genocide. It's a natural pairing.

HellesBier

I mean, I was referring to your property values. Looking down at the peasentry is sort of an obvious given.

Do you think that's better for you...or worse?

It's so hard for me every time I see his avatar not to just go down a violent path of ridicule.

You nailed it. Ding Ding Ding Ding Ding.

I mean, your general gist isn't wrong, but the details are not quite what you're suggesting. Door to Door sales is a major, major commercial business segment. Most companies use 3rd party door to door sales companies, who employ their own folks to go out and knock on doors and sell things. It can really boost sales numbers, so people/companies are addicted to those sales #s, but they're often highly fucking shady. In Energy, and Telecom, think about people who prey on old folks and get them to sign shit they don't understand. Or fake their signature. Etc. It often comes with a high level of regulator risk, so some companies won't employ Door to Door sale anymore. Elon basically hired a bunch of pros to do the door knocking. The only thing pros care about is fucking quotas. How many doors did you knock? How many sales did you make? It's a metrics game. And since they're usually third party working on temporary contracts, they're happy to fudge the fucking numbers to make their quotas/get their bonsues considering in a few weeks they'll be working on another contract somewhere else and there isn't much blowback. Contrast that mentality with people who are volunteering, or have more permanent type positions with a democratic party...people who actually care about the outreach and not just checking a box and getting paid. Or the Culinary Union in Nevada. These people care about actual results.

Ah, Cypress, TX. Where I hate to go, and where my inlaws bitch constantly about how their neighborhood is now filled up with low IQ asshole renters, all of which vote the exact same way she does.

Lol. I told you fuckers that the inherent fraud and theft associated with door to door companies would be off the charts. You, uh, trying to go for 3 Putt's crown, bud?

Lol at Trump is a Christian. I mean, sure, lol at all of it, but yeah.

This entire fucking article is basically detaling how Republicans and Trump fuck over these people, including a direct fucking comparison showing how Harris's emails are much, much clearler, and yet this is the fucking headline, the first message that people see following the link: Get all the way fucked, CNN. It's just fucking exhausting.

I should have been more clear. One of the links I posted cited several Latino people who were complaining about the economy and the cost of groceries and basically still giving Trump a pass on all of the negative effects of Covid, while tying them to Harris. It's a perception versus reality thing. I realize Nevada is always close. It was super fucking close last time, as well. Which is why I'm sensitive to early returns, and why I am somewhat dismissive of the "I'll believe NV turns blue when it happens" angle that many posters here support, almost taking it for granted

People also seem to split tickets disproportionally at the top, and people also seem to let memories linger. The poor economy isn't helping. The other article cited lingering weakness among the latino vote in Nevada. And lets not act like Biden whipped Nevada's ass, he won by 2%. It doesn't take much, and the early returns, albeit very limited, are concerning.

I updated my post with some links.

Oh, they are. They're all in for Harris, and they're knocking the doors. I was referring to hadnly the folks doing the work in/for the Culinary Union have remarked a lack of enthusiasm for Harris kind of a thing. https://thenevadaglobe.com/articles/culinary-union-warns-nevada-could-go-red/ https://www.npr.org/2024/10/01/g-s1-25479/nevada-latino-voters-trump-harris-culinary-union One of those articles also cites Nevada's incumbant Democratic governor getting ousted in 2022 as a sign that things are different.

I mean, Nevada could be indicative of Arizona as well. I mean, outside of Ralson, hasn't the culinary union sounded some alarm as well?

No, pretty sure below is how you humblebrag

Well, guess that’s going to get repealed. Hope you enjoyed it while it lasted.

Voted after work today in the heights, same location as JS1, after I noped out at lunch. The line after work was about 1/3 as long as it was at lunch, and it took 25 minutes start to finish. attempting to judge books by their covers, I didn’t see an overwhelming tilt one way or the other, and I certainly saw lots of what I would normally categorize as low turnout voters. But maybe I’m all wrong.

a 500k person buffer in favor of D returns, I believe.