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1564 Surly 10%About McCroskey
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I just flew on N937XJ this morning so this hits close to home.
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We are really trying too hard to create content for another season of Air Disasters.
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Antelope and Quail at Biga last night, holy fuck that was good.
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They already had planned two things he said would be "new?" "Canada is making new commitments to appoint a Fentanyl Czar, we will list cartels as terrorists, ensure 24/7 eyes on the border, launch a Canada- U.S. Joint Strike Force to combat organized crime, fentanyl and money laundering. I have also signed a new intelligence directive on organized crime and fentanyl and we will be backing it with $200 million." 100%
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Trudeau tweet. https://x.com/JustinTrudeau/status/1886529228193022429
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I mean we're so far down the rabbit hole of if/thens, that's why I think this stuff is unlikely. My overall sentiment on Trump pulling this off carries about the same odds of hitting a 28 team parlay. Yeah, January 6th might be the equivalent of the first leg winning but the odds of him winning the remaining 27 legs is near zero, which again is why I don't worry about it. You could drive yourself crazy with all the scenarios.
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IF Pence did that (even though he had no Constitutional authority to do so), we'd have had a constitutional crisis which would have yielded an immediate intervention by the Judicial branch. From that, the probability is the Supreme Court at the time would have nearly immediately provided the direction & measures to properly allow the Legislative branch to certify Biden as the winner. If you are talking about unlikely outcomes, I think you would have seen chaos, likely violent, the likes the country hasn't seen since 1865. In no scenario would I foresee a scenario where Trump just "stays" in power past January 20th.
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If I may ask...how many congressmen/senators would have had to have been killed on January 6th, or what outcomes from the "invasion" of the Capital would have caused Trump to have peacefully remained in office past January 20th? I contend there are none. The outcome as happened was bad enough, and had the outcome been worse I believe it would have dramatically changed/accelerated the change in Power within the Executive Branch. I don't see a path where January 6th could have been deemed "successful" in that the insurrectionists gained some modicum of "control" AND Trump somehow stayed peacefully in power past January 20th. That's why I don't think Trump came close. The attempt is bad enough but in no scenario in my mind does the system we have in place allow him come remotely close to staying in power beyond the limits granted to him in the Constitution.
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I don't think I understood your question, then. Sorry. Trying to work and keep up here at the same time and not doing a good job of it.
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I don't fault anyone for having that opinion, it was a TERRIBLE day and stain on our history. Trump is a shithead and maybe I have more faith in our ~250 year old system than I should...I tend to think our more significant problems are elsewhere and beyond just the executive branch.
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It's a good question. On the surface I think it's a simple enough thought/fear that's easy to "envision" happening, but in reality what would actually have to happen across a significant number of states and across the 3 branches of federal government, is mind boggling. I just don't think that's a risk for 2029.
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Which is exactly my point. Our system, fucked as it is, allows him to make all the efforts he wants without penalty, which is a clear and obvious problem. That said, I think he will ALWAYS run into people/obstacles that aren't complete pieces of shit and don't want, nor will let it happen.
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Look, it's ok to agree to disagree. Trump is doing a lot of shit these days that makes people nervous. On the specific topic/risk of him actually GETTING a third term...I don't think him remotely capable of being able to change what would need to change to have any chance of it happening. Which is a GREAT thing, IMO.
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100%. But, how close did he come to doing that? I'd argue not very close.
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In a normal context, of course.
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