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McCroskey

Certifiably Surly
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    2005
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Everything posted by McCroskey

  1. I just flew on N937XJ this morning so this hits close to home.
  2. We are really trying too hard to create content for another season of Air Disasters.
  3. Antelope and Quail at Biga last night, holy fuck that was good.
  4. They already had planned two things he said would be "new?" "Canada is making new commitments to appoint a Fentanyl Czar, we will list cartels as terrorists, ensure 24/7 eyes on the border, launch a Canada- U.S. Joint Strike Force to combat organized crime, fentanyl and money laundering. I have also signed a new intelligence directive on organized crime and fentanyl and we will be backing it with $200 million." 100%
  5. Trudeau tweet. https://x.com/JustinTrudeau/status/1886529228193022429
  6. I mean we're so far down the rabbit hole of if/thens, that's why I think this stuff is unlikely. My overall sentiment on Trump pulling this off carries about the same odds of hitting a 28 team parlay. Yeah, January 6th might be the equivalent of the first leg winning but the odds of him winning the remaining 27 legs is near zero, which again is why I don't worry about it. You could drive yourself crazy with all the scenarios.
  7. IF Pence did that (even though he had no Constitutional authority to do so), we'd have had a constitutional crisis which would have yielded an immediate intervention by the Judicial branch. From that, the probability is the Supreme Court at the time would have nearly immediately provided the direction & measures to properly allow the Legislative branch to certify Biden as the winner. If you are talking about unlikely outcomes, I think you would have seen chaos, likely violent, the likes the country hasn't seen since 1865. In no scenario would I foresee a scenario where Trump just "stays" in power past January 20th.
  8. If I may ask...how many congressmen/senators would have had to have been killed on January 6th, or what outcomes from the "invasion" of the Capital would have caused Trump to have peacefully remained in office past January 20th? I contend there are none. The outcome as happened was bad enough, and had the outcome been worse I believe it would have dramatically changed/accelerated the change in Power within the Executive Branch. I don't see a path where January 6th could have been deemed "successful" in that the insurrectionists gained some modicum of "control" AND Trump somehow stayed peacefully in power past January 20th. That's why I don't think Trump came close. The attempt is bad enough but in no scenario in my mind does the system we have in place allow him come remotely close to staying in power beyond the limits granted to him in the Constitution.
  9. I don't think I understood your question, then. Sorry. Trying to work and keep up here at the same time and not doing a good job of it.
  10. I don't fault anyone for having that opinion, it was a TERRIBLE day and stain on our history. Trump is a shithead and maybe I have more faith in our ~250 year old system than I should...I tend to think our more significant problems are elsewhere and beyond just the executive branch.
  11. It's a good question. On the surface I think it's a simple enough thought/fear that's easy to "envision" happening, but in reality what would actually have to happen across a significant number of states and across the 3 branches of federal government, is mind boggling. I just don't think that's a risk for 2029.
  12. Which is exactly my point. Our system, fucked as it is, allows him to make all the efforts he wants without penalty, which is a clear and obvious problem. That said, I think he will ALWAYS run into people/obstacles that aren't complete pieces of shit and don't want, nor will let it happen.
  13. Look, it's ok to agree to disagree. Trump is doing a lot of shit these days that makes people nervous. On the specific topic/risk of him actually GETTING a third term...I don't think him remotely capable of being able to change what would need to change to have any chance of it happening. Which is a GREAT thing, IMO.
  14. 100%. But, how close did he come to doing that? I'd argue not very close.
  15. In a normal context, of course.
  16. I don't know if you were replying to me on that second part or not but just to clarify my own opinion...I think Trump may very likely attempt (he'll be 82 at that point and isn't in the best of health) to hold onto control in 2029, but practically speaking I don't think the threat poses any real possibility of actually occurring. I just don't think he can pull that off given the way our system is designed, regardless of what he's attempted in the past or what he's doing today.
  17. Well, it should be, but I think you are applying the wrong logic here. Yes, in any NORMAL, functioning society, his attempts should absolutely be disqualifying from holding public office in the future. The problem is they aren't, and that's not something that will likely be changed in our lifetimes, so here we are. I think the same system, flawed as it is, is still strong enough to keep him from remotely getting close to a 3rd term.
  18. I think you are giving him too much credit. The analogy I'd use is someone 1,000 miles away shot at me, missed badly, and is still 1,000 miles away and wants to shoot at me again. No, I wouldn't take them seriously. You can think me crazy, fine...I don't think Trump has anywhere near the power or capability to come anywhere close to gaming the system to give him a 3rd term.
  19. Which literally came nowhere close to accomplishing anything.
  20. He never came remotely close to doing anything.
  21. That's just gaslighting both from Trump and the media trying to stir up fear & engagement amongst their audience. The only one of any remote concern is Trump going the VP route but even that is a ridiculous stretch.
  22. Well for starters, I'm NOT a supporter and am one that thinks our whole system is fucked. To your question of what's the fucking point? He's obviously is a narcissist and loves the theatrics and influence he has over simple minded people. As stated in the Youtube video above this isn't complicated...Trump likes to drive a narrative, push the media cycle to whatever end, and rinse/repeat with no real thought on ramifications. Most of the time nothing happens (whew), some of the time the results are bad and other times (rare) the results are actually positive. As to the "beef" with Canada, there are certainly areas of the trade/economic partnerships that could certainly be improved but I don't get the urgency all of a sudden with them. Supposedly a lot of the fake China shit is flowing through Canada, which does cost American's more in the long run. There are some good follows out there from supply chain/industry people who spell it out way better than any journalist or random internet expert.
  23. I mean, they will at some point because they'll have to. They aren't gonna go into a recession to prove a point...they'll buckle down and take measures similar to what Mexico is doing. But agree, it's all theatrics...I don't understand why people live and die by this stuff in 5 minute increments.
  24. Trip report. In and out for a one night biz trip with three meals: Lunch - Mr Bs - duck spring rolls and tuna wontons were killer. BBQ shrimp delivered as always. Dinner - Commanders Palace - First time, had to have turtle soup as recommended here and it didn’t disappoint. I felt it had a beef flavor but maybe my palate was off. Dinner was a sublime medium rare Filet. Breakfast - Ruby Slipper. Bloody Mary’s were spicier than usual. Don’t eat anything fancy but always a great breakfast. Someone at our table got the hot honey chicken biscuit and it looked amazing.
  25. @maphumanintent is a good follow when it comes to global logistics/supply chain topics. https://x.com/maphumanintent/status/1885911185939136631
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