Looking at the updated Massey Ratings and OU's resume, I think they're going to need a minor miracle to get into the tourney field. They currently sit at 16-11, 6-8 in conference. If they don't get to .500 in conference they don't stand a chance. How are they going to do that? Their remaining schedule looks like this:
Tech - 48% chance of winning. in 1000 simulations the most likely score is 70-69 in favor of tech.
@WVU - 21% chance of winning.
UT - 69% chance of winning. A win here helps their win total but doesn't really help the resume all that much. UT is likely to lose their next two games against Q1 teams. UT is sitting at #75 in the NET ratings, which if they drop any further then UT would become a Q3 win for OU should they win.
@TCU - 48% chance of winning. In 1000 simulations the likely score is 67-66 in favor of TCU.
OU is currently #55 in NET ratings. They are 3-9 in Q1 wins and 5-2 in Q2 wins Their most likely finish is going to be 3-11 in Q1 and probably 5-3 in Q2 wins. They'll probably be somewhere in the 60s in NET which has to be on the very low end of the bubble (if they lose the next 2 they might be in the 70s going into UT). They would probably be the 5 or 6 seed in the big12 tourney which means they'll have a chance at a Q1 win to finish the season. The rough part of their schedule is right now though, they're looking at 5 straight losses if they don't beat Tech or WVU this week.
I'm going to go ahead and say that there isn't a chance they are in unless Tech or WVU absolutely shits they bed and they take care of business against UT and TCU. Then they'll need to take care of tech or WVU in their first game of the tourney. That's a tall order.