crimsonlonghorn

I saw a tweet several weeks ago - late January - from an old analog forecaster (I can't remember who) that said, "Get ready for an arctic blast, Texas!" At the time the long range models and forecasts were still very warm. Like many things, we are almost too reliant on technology sometimes instead of old-fashioned skill.

In theory, ERCOT doesn't need a capacity market because of the way the market and grid are designed, but in practice it almost certainly would have been the difference in keeping this from happening in these specific circumstances. One of the more commonsense reforms would be to set up a capacity (or readiness) market for Mondays only or in declared forecast weather emergencies or something like that. Unfortunately, I think the rarity of these circumstances will be ignored and lead to more comprehensive and cumbersome changes instead. Politicians gonna politick. Again, I'm willing to cut ERCOT and the generators a lot of slack given the multiple sigma nature of the weather event and the serendipitous timing relative to the markets. I'd much rather that they continue to focus on summer loads and handle grid reforms and winterizing with a light touch, but most people are very angry right now and there will be political consequences because of it.

Something that I have yet to see mentioned in these articles - and don't get me wrong, I don't disagree with the conclusions that ERCOT fucked up and the competitive system isn't far enough forward-looking to incentivize grid improvements- is that this happened on the back half of a four day gas trading weekend. So not only was it a five or six sigma weather event, it was also really bad timing on the trading calendar. Had this happened on a non-holiday weekday, a lot of the power supply issues would have been avoided or minimized. (Some other poster way upthread alluded to this when he was talking about buying gas for his power plant) For the most part, these resources are traded and managed "day ahead", meaning that gas is purchased and power sold and plants brought up or down the immediate day before. (There is something else called "real time" but that is more like fine tuning what is already up and running, you don't usually startup cold power plants in RT) It's hard enough to schedule and manage supply for normal weekends, which cover Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. Saturday and Sunday have lower demand than Monday, but you have to trade the same amount of product for each day and then you manage it during the day after the schedule is set. Saturday and Sunday positions will sometimes get closed out at a loss with the expectation that Monday's profit will make up for it. For Monday holidays, they add Tuesday to the weekend package, so now you are trading four days of equal volumes and price but you have a different load profile on each of those days. Last Friday, when the cold was on its way here, it was already in Oklahoma and points north, and that caused gas prices to spike in those areas. Where gas is normally $2 or $3 per MMBTU it was $100 or more. And it was so cold up north that a lot of their wells were frozen off and unable to supply, so they were buying gas in South Texas and shipping it north, which made the price of South Texas gas - "Houston Ship Channel", "Waha", "NGPL STX" - spike as well, FOR THE WHOLE FOUR DAY WEEKEND. Instead of the usual $3, it was trading $200. 10-20x higher than it has ever traded. Well, ERCOT underestimated the demand on Monday and a lot of Texas generators woke up on Friday and looked at the Ship Channel price for the four day package and said, "Fuck that. That's too expensive." and they shut their plants down for the 4 day weekend. Then when the shit hit the fan on Monday, those plants were all cold and there wasn't any gas to run them anyway because it had all been exported north AND the wells in Texas were frozen off too AND one of the STP nuclear units got shut down because the water intake was freezing. And that's how you end up with no power supply when demand is going through the roof. As I said at the beginning, had this happened on a normal weekday, a lot of those resources would have been online and available. The bad forecast for the back end of a four day weekend with record gas prices is a big part of why the power grid went down. Also, as mentioned above, Houston generators got socked the hardest because there is a very large amount of gas generation here AND it is a gas trading hub AND it typically doesn't get as cold here so the plants are more susceptible.

Just lost power in Greatwood again after having it all day. We had moved back in from the farmhouse and now we are headed back there for the night. Lights are still on there but no water. I’m pretty sure with the power loss our neighborhood water pressure is going to rapidly deteriorate. Considering it came on this morning right at 8:00 and then went off again right at 5:00, I’m thinking this is planned and it won’t be back for a while Fuck you, Centerpoint.

I know I don't know anything about cows, but I was surprised by how easily my tenant's took the cold this week. My chickens too, for that matter. Went to check on all the animals yesterday morning and they were all acting normally. I guess single digits isn't cold enough to bother them like I thought it would be.

I turned mine off from the start just in case. Wife thought I was crazy. Then when we went to turn it back on on Monday, there was nothing and we were afraid we had screwed something up and had frozen up anyway. Turns out our water company had lost pressure. This morning they turned their pumps back on and we had water just fine. I was very gruntled. However, I did manage to burn up my pool equipment when the power came on. I forgot to switch than breaker off when we lost power, then we were gone when it came back this morning and pumps decided to try to run all frozen up. Lots of smoke and steam coming out of those pumps. Now it's my insurance company's problem.

If the pressure is low, the ice can sometime expand inside of the pipe instead of through the side of it. Unusual, but can happen. The problem with burst pipes usually comes from pressure on both sides of the ice and it has nowhere to go but through the wall of the pipe. Could be a blessing in that case when your water utility pressure goes down.

LOL, I loaded up on propane on Friday for my outdoor heaters and fire pit this week. Had no idea my hoarding would pay off inside the house.

In about 40 hours of total use (turned off while we are asleep in a small room with the doors closed), maybe about a quarter of the 20# tank, probably a little less. Designed to be used with 1# bottles and I’m sure I would have blown through a few of those by now. Still, it is pretty efficient I think. edit: this is in respone to @Somnio my phone screwed up the reply

Didn’t know what I was picking up last week in my hasty preparations, but I’m definitely team Little Buddy at this point. Going to acquire a couple more and some more 20# adapter hoses as insurance before next winter. Much better than electric space heaters, especially when there is no electric to use.

Agreed. Ercot can only distribute what they have. They don’t own any power plants or utilities. This is mostly on the generators for not being ready and on the severity and broad duration of the event relative to infrastructure. This was truly a tail event given the excessive cold over the entire state. But Ercot is certainly to blame in the sense that they have regulatory oversight duties that obviously were not performed in getting the generators and infrastructure ready for a situation like this.

Turn it down to the lowest setting and let your hot water trickle. Some would advise to turn it completely off and relight later, which isn’t a bad option either.

Goddamit. I turned off and drained the water at the farm and barndo on Sunday. We were looking forward to turning it back on this afternoon and having hot showers and flushing toilets... walked outside a few minutes ago and saw water on the ground under the sediment filter. I didn’t think to take that off Sunday and now the saturated filter froze and cracked the housing. No water today because now I gotta heat it up and get it off and then find a new housing before we can turn it back on in the grand scheme of things it’s minor and there’s no ancillary damage and it will be easy to fix, but in the grand scheme of things it’s extremely annoying.

My dad in Snyder says they haven’t lost power. Same with brother in Lubbock, who happens to work for the electric coop and was sending “oh shit” texts early yesterday morning before it became obvious to normal people what was about to happen.

Stupid ducking autocorrect. LOL

Found out late this afternoon that our barndomonium had power and internet so we headed out to the farm for the night. No water but we have lights and space heaters. Looking at the weather data log, it appears the power never went out here. We are about 2 miles from the Parish power plant. Maybe that has something to do with it. Or maybe Booth is just higher priority than Greatwood. 😉

I live less than 10 miles from a coal plant that hasn’t been shut down. WTF is my power off?

We shut our water off and drained it last night night and then when we went to turn it back on this morning, there was nothing. I’m presuming it’s frozen somewhere between the house and the street. Not good, but at least it didn’t freeze (and burst) inside the house. We’re also one of those whom centerpoint says can kindly get fucked now that the rolling blackouts are over. I’m fine with resource issues - I understand why there was a problem - not sure I understand or appreciate now the idea that they are picking and choosing who gets to freeze and who gets to lounge at home in comfort.

With the power out, I’m now worried about my pool equipment.

Have lived in this house 7 years and just now turned on the gas fireplace for the first time. Kind of nice considering the circumstances.

Finally lost power in Sugar Land about 7:45. Mrs CL is a real company woman and is losing her mind that she can’t turn on her computer and start working. Lord help us all. The kids are less worried about their Xbox.

They have the exact opposite situation up north. When I lived in Massachusetts, most of the homes in our "nice" neighborhood didn't have air conditioning and those that did were considered to be a luxury. We had central AC and we only had to run it 10-15 times a year. Oscillating fans in front of open windows was usually all you needed. But one year there was a "heat wave" (i.e. 100 degrees for 3-4 days) and our neighbors thought they were going to die. But every house damn sure had a heating oil system with a boiler and radiators. You plan for what is normal.

That too. I forgot to mention that part. I bet they could handle cold with no precipitation. But ice on the lines causes problems.

Saturday I have a shoot and Sunday we have our first Little League practice. Life returns to normal quickly in Houston.