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crimsonlonghorn

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by crimsonlonghorn

  1. Well, you gotta think in that situation that the alligator doesn’t give a shit about you and is doing the same thing you are In trying not to drown or get slammed into something hard and/or sharp.
  2. The wind in that graphic isn't necessarily what's steering the hurricane. Those are low level winds, just like the hurricane itself and they are still moving west. What's steering the hurricane is the upper level pattern that is rotating clockwise around the SEC-SEC-SEC. The little gap in the wind map is just a manifestation of where the edge of that clockwise rotation is above the surface. I thought this was a cool graphic this morning. The hurricane basically rotates around the ridge and then heads due east as soon as it gets to the northern edge. Check out how the wind field basically touches Mississippi on three sides for 48 hours but the center of the storm never actually gets into the state itself. Figuring out where that lefthand edge is located has been the Million Dollar Question for the past 3-4 days.
  3. What's important is that gap directly over the Sabine River where the winds are weaker. That's the edge of ridge that is going to pull it north.
  4. Sure did. As mentioned earlier, the NHC have balls of steal the way they stuck to their guns and didn't panic and send Houston into even more of a panic on its own. That one run of the Euro on Monday night was enough to get it started - had the NHC guys followed it would have been Deep Impact around here. Kudos to the American model and the American forecasters.
  5. I am curious what the GFS sees to give Houston slightly more rain.
  6. Still going to be a little stormy in Houston from over the next 24-36 hours. A hurricane that big less than 100 miles away will still cause a pretty significant pressure gradient and good winds and rain from the outer bands. Avoiding the eye means we avoided being scoured down to the concrete, but the weather will still be bad.
  7. All this drama the past 48 hours and all the time I spent today busting my hump in the sun getting everything prepared... and all we're going to get out of this in Sugar Land is 20 MPH wind gusts and a half inch of rain.
  8. Then by your own standards you are doing it wrong.
  9. People in Iraq are glad they don't live in Lubbock. My brother was in the Marines and went to Kuwait somewhere along the way and said he could have just stayed in Andrews and had the same experience.
  10. If I’m going west from Sugar Land, I usually take 90A all the way to Eagle Lake and then cut up to Columbus. I try to completely avoid Austin County.
  11. Would like to thank Lamar CISD for canceling school through Monday. They’ve saved us from having any sort of effects from the hurricane now. Well done.
  12. 12z Euro operational appears to be back east. Waiting to confirm that. EDIT: yep
  13. Damn Chambers County is too close for comfort. That's still hurricane force wind downtown and east.
  14. That was really fun.... then Harvey was not so much fun directly thereafter.
  15. Roads are starting to back up towards the coast and also out of Beaumont. People need to be headed east and west and south and not just north.
  16. Cat 4 coming up that way means 140 MPH sustained winds and gusts approaching 200 MPH. Utter destruction and downed trees everywhere, especially close to the coast. Not quite as bad north in Fort Bend and Harris but still plenty bad.
  17. Qpo You’re right. Not as far east as I thought.
  18. Jesus Christ the 12z GFS is back a little more East into Louisiana. That’s why the NHC didn’t move. New Euro coming in a couple of hours.
  19. Until the GFS and the other models start moving west, the NHC is staying East. Either a big coup for the Euro or a big bust. I’m very curious to see the next GFS and Euro runs the next 2-3 hours and see who blinks.
  20. No change in the NHC path but hurricane warning up from San Luis to Morgan City and tropical storm warning now for all of Houston metro counties.
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