Jump to content
Required Reading for any Longhorn ×

crimsonlonghorn

Certifiably Surly
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    2420

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by crimsonlonghorn

  1. crimsonlonghorn
    You can follow them realtime here: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/ Kind of tedious but also interesting when they find the center.
  2. crimsonlonghorn
    I was coming to post those. Hopefully they will KEEP going west towards Matagorda and Port Lavaca and the other models will follow.
  3. crimsonlonghorn
    Winds and rain starts tomorrow afternoon and get steadily worse through the night. Starts clearing out Thursday morning.
  4. crimsonlonghorn
    Depends on where exactly it comes in. On the map I posted earlier this morning, you've 50 MPH gusts in Bellaire. Further east, winds are lower. But if it comes up San Luis or Freeport, you're looking at gusts well over 100 MPH.
  5. crimsonlonghorn
    Compared to the 12z and 18z from yesterday, it sure did. But it's pretty much the same as the 00z and just a tad further east than the same run yesterday morning. If anything, this morning's storm is slightly wider.
  6. crimsonlonghorn
    6z Euro almost exactly the same as the 00z. Borderline Cat 3 coming in over Chambers County. ~60 MPH gusts over downtown. Very tight wind gradient over the ship channel. Baytown and Anahuac get hammered. Golden Triangle isn't much better. But from a "lack of people between Houston and Beaumont" standpoint, going right over the east side of the bay would probably be the least bad scenario.
  7. crimsonlonghorn
    6z Euro coming in now. Looks to be about the same and maybe weaker from first impressions but still downloading.
  8. crimsonlonghorn
    Yep. Woke up to it about 5:30 and it's off the charts. The NHC track is only slightly further west and the Euro is still east of Galveston, and the GFS and American hurricane models are still in Jefferson County, but the Houston media is in full bore panic mode now. Meteorologist I used to work with many years ago was pretty insistent yesterday that it's a Louisiana storm. I'm curious to hear his take today, but yesterday he said they always correct back to the east - see Ike and Rita - and this one will too. He said if it were currently forecast into Matagorda, THAT'S when Houston is at the most risk of a surprise landfall (which is exactly what happened with Ike). I'm at least now probably going to have to spend the day moving everything inside the barn and garage and start tying stuff down. Waiting to see the 6z Euro and the 8AM advisory. If both of those are further west, then I'll start to be a little more concerned.
  9. crimsonlonghorn
    00z GFS is still going in right at Calcasieu, not really that strong. The only real outlier in location and intensity is the Euro and its ensembles. Everything is is Cat 1-2 into the TX/LA border.
  10. crimsonlonghorn
  11. crimsonlonghorn
    We lived in Timbergrove during Ike at the end of our block and at the end the power line. Our transformer served four houses. The storm broke the crossmember at the top of the power pole. Because there were only four houses affected, we were at the bottom of the priority list and didn’t have power again for 2.5 weeks. Literally everyone on our street and all around us had it back within 3-4 days. Ended up bunking with my in-laws in the Energy Corridor for most if that period until we got it back at our house.
  12. crimsonlonghorn
    Jefferson County and Orange County are evacuating.
  13. crimsonlonghorn
    Actually pretty good news for Houston if the center is that far north. It's definitely moved north of west today. Had it stayed further south it would definitely be coming into Texas.
  14. crimsonlonghorn
    Tree limbs everywhere. No power anywhere in the city, even the gas stations and the grocery stores. So no ice. It was fucking miserable.
  15. crimsonlonghorn
    Holy shit. 18z Euro operational. This is about as close to Houston as it could get and not be catastrophic. On the other hand, 150 MPH gusts in all of Jefferson County and 191 MPH gusts somewhere in that gray zone, so sparing Houston isn't saying much.
  16. crimsonlonghorn
    Joe Bastardi's post this afternoon (paywalled)
  17. crimsonlonghorn
    Dammit. Fuck 2020.
  18. crimsonlonghorn
    Cat 3 into Sabine Lake. Say goodbye to Lake Charles and Calcasieu Parish. Port Arthur, too.
  19. crimsonlonghorn
    My wife and I thought we'd be cute and do this during Rita. Got all the way to Grand Parkway 99 and they had closed 59 and all of the other roads to southbound traffic so as to facilitate evacuees coming up from Brazoria County. We were forced onto Grand Parkway back towards I-10 and hit stop and go traffic around 1093 (now the Westpark tollway). We eventually ended up going west on 529 to Bellville at about 10 miles an hour and made it to Austin about 12 hours later. Now that I live down here and know the back roads we might have been able to get around the closures and past Rosenberg, but at the time it was frustrating as hell to get turned around like that.
  20. crimsonlonghorn
    Looks like Euro is going into Sabine Lake now.
  21. crimsonlonghorn
    Pretty sure that's wind speed measured in knots.
  22. crimsonlonghorn
    Right now each frame of the Euro is taking a straight line right at Houston. The suspense is killing me!
  23. crimsonlonghorn
    The adage is "run from the water, hide from the wind" and no one is predicting flooding in Houston proper. If anything officially evacuates, it will be Galveston County and far east Harris County. They never officially told people away from the coast to evacuate during Rita, so as long as your daughter has a safe place to hunker down, she'll be OK if the storm hits. If you do insist on coming and retrieving her, you had better do it ASAP because if the forecasts settle on a major hit on Houston there will still be people streaming out and clogging the road. Unnecessarily, granted, but some people will still do it.
  24. crimsonlonghorn
    Better fill up your tanks because no matter where it hits, some amount of refiner capacity is going off for a few days at the very least.
  25. crimsonlonghorn
    12z HMON is slightly weaker and slightly further west, but still a strong storm. Going to be very interested to see the12z Euro here shortly.

Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Futbol ... 🤫995🤫 ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Business and Markets ... Cloak Room ... Help ... For Sale ... Board Discussion ... Subscribe!... Donate!... Advertise... COOKIE MONSTER!

×
×
  • Create New...