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crimsonlonghorn

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Everything posted by crimsonlonghorn

  1. crimsonlonghorn
    12z HWRF is also into Louisiana with a Cat 4.
  2. crimsonlonghorn
    surl gonna surl
  3. crimsonlonghorn
    12z GFS is into Lake Charles and seems to have initialized in close to the right place. But if it doesn't go northwest and stays further south over water, then this model run isn't worth much. If in 5-6 hours the center has passed on the the Isle of Youth instead of over the main island, Houston is likely fucked.
  4. crimsonlonghorn
    Turn it over and tie it down on opposite sides to something sturdy? That's all I can think of.
  5. crimsonlonghorn
    At least Matagorda for sure. Not sure about all the way to Corpus, but yeah, 30 miles won't make a difference. Would have to be 60-100 miles. In fact, just slightly west could make it worse since the worst winds would be east of the center, so under this track those would be somewhat over Galveston and the bay and into Liberty County which is less populated. 30 miles west and those winds are over Fort Bend and western Harris and Montgomery Counties. 30 miles west would be good for the Ship Channel and eastern Harris, though.
  6. crimsonlonghorn
    Agreed with this but the Euro isn't an outlier. Will be interesting to see what the GFS does in a couple of hours. UKMET takes it even further south, which might be what Houston needs and all we can hope for.
  7. crimsonlonghorn
    If it's going to go further west, then by God go WEST and get all the way to Matagorda and Port Lavaca. Anything between there and Galveston is bad news. Guess I better start packing up this afternoon. Dammit.
  8. crimsonlonghorn
    All of the models this morning have it going into Louisiana Wednesday evening as Cat 1, but the 6z HMON now wants to try out the worst case scenario for Houston on Thursday morning. We will know by the end of the day today. EDIT: We will know BETTER... lol
  9. crimsonlonghorn
    Furk.Guess I'm going to spend the day tomorrow working my ass off and sweating to get ready just to be sure that it really will miss us. Recognize that the Euro solution might just be an initialization error, but I hope it turns out to be right.
  10. crimsonlonghorn
    Euro is back over Morgan City now as a tropical storm. Dang. Make up your minds.
  11. crimsonlonghorn
    The 12z GFS is pretty much unchanged still going into Calcasieu as strong Cat 1. Now for the Euro in about an hour.
  12. crimsonlonghorn
    Both the 6z Euro and GFS are back in Louisiana. Because fuck Louisiana. I was worked up for about 3 hours overnight with 120 MPH winds in Galveston.
  13. crimsonlonghorn
    Finally went ahead and pulled the trigger on this one. 9-10 month lead on the metal. Wife and I now need to plan a trip to Brescia next summer (assuming Italy is open again to Americans) to pick out the wood and get the stock fit. Should be in my hands at the gun club by next Labor Day.
  14. crimsonlonghorn
    I've bought lately from PSA, Ables, and Grabagun. All good purchases. Just depends what you want. Buying through Academy and Bass Pro and other big box stores is also fine, except you have to go to the store itself to do the transfer and that can be a clusterfuck sometimes if the store is crowded or run by stupid people, but generally haven't had too much trouble personally.
  15. crimsonlonghorn
    Aw fuck man. Aw fuckity fuck. The eye of the Euro goes right over Galveston County with 120+ MPH winds. So totally 2020.
  16. crimsonlonghorn
    Yes, we got about a surprise half inch both yesterday and today in Sugar Land. Wasn’t supposed to rain at all either day.
  17. crimsonlonghorn
    Morgan Cty prepare your anus. Houston media has been talking about both of these all day long and if this forecast holds we're going to get jack shit from both... which is OK with me, honestly.
  18. crimsonlonghorn
    I'm starting to get the feeling that Houston is going to avoid a large windy storm out of this. If Marco gets stronger, Marco goes further east. If Laura gets stronger, Laura stays further south. No A/C and closed grocery stores and gas stations during Ike was the most miserable part, so I'll take it. Even if we get several inches of rain, which still feels very likely, it will almost certainly not be another Harvey, which was very rare in terms of it stalling out like it did.
  19. crimsonlonghorn
    So, who was it and did you get breakfast?
  20. crimsonlonghorn
    Maybe I'm misunderstanding this, but this is the kind of strategy that has a better chance of working than just saying, "We're canceling and you're crazy for not panicking too!" Tell the conferences that insist on fall sports other than football that the championships have been moved to the spring. "You can go ahead and play this fall if you want, but why not wait for the championships in the spring?" Has no practical effect on football, of course.
  21. crimsonlonghorn
    Welp. If it's going east, something better change quickly because we're going to be on the bad side now.
  22. crimsonlonghorn
    I tend to agree with this. The ones that really affect Houston either: a.) Form right offshore and surprise everyone (Alicia, Allison, Imelda) b.) Make a beeline from the open ocean straight across the Caribbean and right up our anus (1906, Ike) c.) Fuck around in the Bay of Campeche first and then head due north before they have a chance to go east (Harvey, Jerry) Those that are the far south always leak away to the east. The only one I can think of that followed a similar path is Carla - which is nothing to sneeze at - but generally I think it's rare for them to form south of Honduras and not eventually go east instead of due north.
  23. crimsonlonghorn
    4 AM advisory also has it slightly further east and a very strong storm or weak hurricane at landfall.
  24. crimsonlonghorn
    Models have been moving east with every run so far. I'm in Fort Bend and could use the rain, so Chambers County would be just right to get 1-2 inches and manageable winds, but my guess is that it will end up being east of Beaumont, if not east of Lake Charles and even further into Louisiana. The two storms are going to pull towards each other.
  25. crimsonlonghorn
    That Westbrook hit would probably be flagged today.

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