BradInATX

Nice Cloak Room thread y'all.

You don't have to live in the middle of nowhere to be rural.

Finding acreage, good schools and a nice house with a single-comma price tag anywhere in Central Texas is not an easy task. It took us multiple years to end up where we ended up. We almost ended up in Spicewood at one point, and focused on Dripping Springs for awhile, but this ended up being the winner.

No issue with hog manure but if you start reheating skyline chili I'm calling the EPA

Also a new semi-rural. Moved from 1/8 acre in south Austin to several acres near New Braunfels. Can't see another house from the backyard. Not really true rural. We have an HOA, but the lots are all 3+ acres. We have gigabit internet but our water comes from a well. We have one of the cheapest houses in the neighborhood, they range up to seven figures. Have seen a little bit of redneckery particularly down at the river park, but I actually get along just fine with common clay of the new west types, so it doesn't really bother me. I can't really tell you how I'm dealing with leaving Austin because we've been mostly stuck at home due to Covid and kids. But it kicks ass to sit out on my patio with sports on and music up and have a beer, cigar, or other stuff into the night without worrying about the neighbors or being able to see what they're watching on TV. It will kick even more ass when the pool and cabana bar go in. I like doing country shit. I like riding the lawnmower and putting fence up and moving rocks around. I like drinking beer in the river and watching the side by sides roll up, stupid flags and all. So far not surly, but I know I'll miss some things from Austin. Toughest part will be finding like minded friends with kids out here. The kids' school track here is great and to get comparably rated schools in Austin we'd be in a Circle C/Lakeway/Westlake type suburban hell. I'd rather live with the nouveau-riche necks than in any of those places. Subscribed for other people's experiences doing the same thing. Cool thread.

The 20-30 percent existing immunity isn't built into that chart. The chart is basically just saying "if Moderna, Pfizer, and J&J deliver their promised doses in the promised timelines, and we get 80% of those into arms, this is what it'll look like". So it's not really a "best case" scenario but more of a "if everyone delivers as expected". There is still some upside, if we can get above 80% utilization. It also doesn't include the Novavax vaccine which could be here in late spring in big numbers. You're probably right in that we won't see quite that many in arms by end of May, but we won't be that far off. I'll stick to my guns - just about anyone that wants a shot will have access to one by Memorial Day. Especially in Texas where we're running ahead of the country, and will probably have a lower than average adoption rate. Yeah, it definitely knows no party lines. There are a ton of them here in New Braunfels. And Austin is one of the worst large cities in the country for unvaccinated kids. But they're going to find themselves in the very small, unsympathetic minority pretty soon. All of us have given up a year mostly to help out the olds and the vulnerable. I'm not sacrificing a single day of normal life for anti-vax morons, and I don't think most normal people will either. Fuck em.

Not sure. I'm sort of a fence sitter on healthcare and M4A. I have great insurance that I want to keep and not pay extra taxes for keeping. All I know is all medical stuff gets paid for by somebody already and the data shows that subsidizing preventative care saves money in the long run. The model of the uninsured just going to the ER for everything and not paying their bills has to be one of the dumbest possible solutions.

You're already paying for those people every time you go to the doctor or hospital. Who do you think subsidizes all the poors' unpaid ER bills?

I'm up 37% on AMZYF and 33% on UUUU in a single week. I'll name my third born after you if the vasectomy doesn't take, @Harrison Stafford

I dunno. I don't think anyone is going to have a lot of tolerance for anti-vax types. One large section of the country has wanted to open up for a long time. The other large section of the country (NO POLITICS) is pretty anti-anti-vaxxer. I think most people will give a big bipartisan middle finger to the people who have had the opportunity to get the vaccine but won't.

I used an 80% number (80% allocated actually getting into arms). We are at about 78% administered vs. shipped and trending up. So I figured 80% is a good conservative number.

Depends where you live. The question may more be "at what point will the mask mandates become useless because the population is going to refuse". In Texas? I'd guess by July 4th the mask mandates will be gone for just about everything except maybe healthcare and travel settings. Personally, once everyone has the opportunity to have received the vaccine (plus a few weeks to allow it to work) and hospitalization numbers are well within the "no risk of overwhelming the healthcare system" range, I won't be wearing a mask anymore, regardless of what the rule is.

You'll be good

January is a proxy for everything through the end of this week. By EOW we should have 48 million shots or so (this is probably a lowball actually) "Fully vaxxed" is going to be overrepresented a bit in the chart in the early months. The 100M number in March is probably closer to 70 million fully vaccinated and 60 million who have received one shot (for a total of 200M shots). That will catch up as we get closer to April/May. But it actually means that we're going to be closer to herd immunity than that chart would indicate, since the first shots of Moderna/Pfizer give you strong immunity after a few weeks. Like I said, 20 minute deal. Big picture. There's not good enough data made public to really break it down to a "X number of first shots and Y second shots" level.

There's a growing body of evidence that strong reaction to the first shot means you already had Covid and didn't know it. Vaccine recipients with pre-existing immunity experience systemic side effects with a significantly higher frequency than antibody naïve vaccines (e.g., fatigue, headache, chills, fever, muscle or join pains, in order of decreasing frequency, P < 0.001 for all listed symptoms, Fisher’s exact test, two-sided). Most of the participants for whom antibody results are presented above also completed the vaccine side-effect survey. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.29.21250653v1.full-text

I hadn't seen anyone actually walk this out on the intertrons, so I took 20 while I was eating lunch to mess with it. Based on known delivery promises, below is what we should expect to see over the next few months. By end of May we'll have 80% of the eligible population vaccinated, or at least the supply to do so. We know the polls show that about a quarter of people won't ever get it. Which means that by end of May, we're going to have more doses than willing hosts. This is subject to the companies actually hitting their targets. Basically, pending supply chain issues, almost everyone who wants the vaccine will have it by Memorial Day. And we're going to be awfully close to herd immunity by the end of March with 38% vaccinated and another ~20-30% with immunity from having had the virus. Summer 2021 is going to look a lot more like Summer 2019 than 2020. I would list my assumptions but nobody gives a shit, you'll just have to take my word for it. It accounts for waste, ramp times, and delivered-to-administered ratios and all that.

APH released a dashboard for vaccine coverage. https://austin.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/fdfca9ad7bfa444dbb1ddbceb6c1a1b1

With all of these stupid ass "just a prank bro!" videos out there, this was bound to happen. Tragic for the kids and the families, but definitely a stupid games stupid prizes award.

You're like a goddamned pinball bouncing from one stupid point to another.

He passes the South Austin test.

Biden dominating the POTUS dog game with rescued shepherds. We had a tough run with the Obama's metrosexual fluffy dog and Lindsey Graham as the last two presidential dogs.

Here you go wws let me save you some time https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/austerity

Wws thinking he was going to post an article that will totally pwn the libtards then posting an article saying right wing austerity measures are killing people might be my favorite chapter of this garbage can of a thread. Lmfao

My bad for the threadjack though. I moved to somewhere between Wurstfest and a meth lab in Canyon Lake, so I'm out the Austin game anyway. Let's get this thread back to its original topic which is Wally Pryor telling us what an effective and outstanding leader FitLump is.

I usually take my confederate flag off the truck when I go north of the river.