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Nice Guy Eddie

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Nice Guy Eddie

  1. Allred outperforming Harris by about 2 points with the initial vote
  2. Jumped into polymarket. Let’s see what happens.
  3. The story about Robinson has to be impacting the NC vote. There must be republicans staying home due to those wild stories about him.
  4. It would be interesting to know if the carpet baggers are replacing the dying olds or not. My guess is that they're not but even if so, the trend may not continue.
  5. The Trump campaign and Trump are two different entities. As the day progresses that gap will widen. Insiders have already said that many on the campaign can’t wait to get away and would avoid any Trump administration job. They only have a few hours left to toe the line. As the liquor flows in a few of them, journalists will start to tell more insider stories.
  6. One thing to remember that Houston, Dallas, SA and Austin are all in the top 6 of youngest average age for metro areas. The other 2 are Salt Lake City and Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA. Young people don't vote as well as older. It's why Texas hasn't flipped blue by allowing the older, rural areas to dominate elections. As the older, white people die and the younger, non-white get older, Texas will flip fast and decisively. Getting more of the Hispanic vote is the only way for Texas to stay red.
  7. I know that mainstream media has a self imposed rule to not release exit polls until after the polls close for a state. Or at least I assume it’s a self imposed rule. Is there anything stopping them or anyone from releasing exit polls early? the concept seems tied to not wanting to influence the vote but they constantly release poll after poll leading up to Election Day which influences votes. I don’t see any difference.
  8. Abbott and Patrick will use tax dollars, mainly paid by the large cities, to fund doctors to staff small town hospitals. But those small town residents will sneer at the deadbeat welfare recipients in the big cities.
  9. I’m a believer that Starlink will eventually be Elon’s most important product. However it’s a scary proposition that he could end up controlling a large percentage of the ISP market.
  10. Heavy rain in Houston this morning. I’m taking it as a sign that we’re washing Cruz down the storm sewer.
  11. Sounds like a you problem. 😂
  12. I understand why people feel screwed but the money was the deceased to do what they want with it. An obvious option is for older men to find a new wife who has plenty of money on her own but in reality most of those women want nothing to do with marriage again. Then the old men only have options with women who don’t have much and are looking for a wealthier old guy. if the estate is large enough, any kids and grandkids should work on dad putting a good chunk in a irrevocable trust prior to the new marriage. The new wife has less leverage prior to the marriage.
  13. Felt like Hollywood prematurely locked Teri Garr into supporting mom roles by the early-mid 80s. Sure she was 40 but her talent was more than a handful of scenes. But perhaps MS was taking away her ability and confidence to carry a movie as easily.
  14. If true patriots had only donated $5 each to Trump yesterday, Melania would have shown up. Her appearance fee to support her husband is only in the mid 6 figures.
  15. Can’t wait for meltdown on the TexAgs’ politics board tomorrow night. It will be better than their football board when they are upset. Their moderators will be banning users left and right.
  16. another point about Iowa is that Jill Stein is not on the ballot. One less opportunity for someone to throw away their vote as a protest. There is the normal Libertarian candidate so the protest vote isn't entirely zero. EDIT: Apparently RFK Jr. is on the Iowa ballot. so there's that. The good news is that any vote for him looks to be one less vote for trump.
  17. And even when Selzer was wrong with POTUS races (she called Iowa in 2004 for Kerry +3) Bush only won by 10K votes, or 0.7%. She's not infallible but if she's say that Harris is winning Iowa, it doesn't bode well for Trump across the board. He easily won 2016 (+10) and 2020 (+8.) If it's close, I can't imagine what is happening in other states as well. And if by chance Harris wins Iowa or another missed swing state, it throws many of the predictions up in the air. Even PA isn't as important.
  18. definitely only a few thousand. GOTV will be key
  19. I know Trump still has a small, passionate base but overall the energy levels of his supporters comes across as much lower than 2016 and 2020. The low energy crowd will still most likely vote for him but they seem to just want everything to be over.
  20. Sheehy also answers questions that his military record is clear and that he's given plenty of interviews about this subject. Both inaccurate claims. And he follows it up that experts have said it was impossible that he shot himself by accident in a parking lot. Makes me wonder if his wife intentionally shot him in that parking lot and that he wants to protect her but not enough to take the blame himself. He also is strangely cautious about not calling the park ranger a liar or even that the ranger has the facts wrong. My guess is that a lawyer has told him that calling the ranger a liar could lead to a defamation suit.
  21. Another sign that Sheehy is hiding something with Megyn Kelly was his constant inability to answer the question being asked. Q: Were you shot in the national park? A: I fell down while hiking. That interview felt like someone being deposed.
  22. in fairness there are some people who only need the a handful of photos/selfies for social media and then they want to move on.
  23. I’m left more confused regarding the story after watching that video. He talks about friendly fire in Afghanistan but doesn’t specifically mention how he was injured there. He implies that he didn’t have medical attention when shot during his service. Something something about needing to remain with his team. as for the “shot in a national parking lot”, he says that it was called a gunshot wound because he fell and it dislodged the bullet im his arm from his service. at a minimum there is something fishy going on that he doesn’t want to talk about. Whether something odd happened in Afghanistan or glacier national park, he doesn’t want to be clear on the facts. then claims that
  24. Spacex build process is about making mistakes, blowing up rockets and then adjusting. I imagine that burns thru many employees either with quitting or firing. if Elon was given multiple attempts at getting out the vote, I believe he would get much better at it. Thankfully I don’t think we will see this again.
  25. Never really thought about it but if I lived in Puerto Rico, I would “move” to FL for every federal election. How many weeks do I need to be there? Done.
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