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Nice Guy Eddie

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Nice Guy Eddie

  1. national cable shows vs. local tv don't have to be a OR. Harris and Walz can do both. There is not a net negative in appearing on CNN or CNBC. The other aspect of national shows is that they can also influence a wider range of voters including those in states that are already decided. Those voters can change the national polls that say who is ahead overall which does matter at this point of the race.
  2. Harris needs to bite the bullet and address the "ban fracking" comments that she did make in 2019/2020. I don't see it as tough. Just say, "When I stated ban fracking, it was in context to poor safety practices by a minority of operators. I know and I fully expect that competent drillers perform fracking at the highest levels of safety to the environment, the nearby community and their employees. As long as the operators continue to demonstrate that level of safety, I have zero intention of stopping them from making America energy independent." If the media disagrees about the context Harris can follow it up that as a senator and VP she has never pushed to ban fracking. Actions speak louder than misinterpretation of a statement.
  3. Why does it feel like I only see Vance, out of the 4 candidates, on TV interviews right now? If you interpret his words on these shows, it's nonsense but he does project a calm demeanor in stark contrast to his boss. It creates the shallow illusion that a Trump/Vance administration will competently steer this country. And while it's easy to say that only morons will fall for Vance's act, that moron's vote counts as much as anyone's. More so if the moron is in a swing state. Walz and Harris need to get in the studio (CNBC, CNN, etc.) and communicate to wider TV audiences rather than focusing on rallies. IMO rallies offer limited benefit as the crowd is already 99% voting for that candidate. I don't see these rallies converting many independents or undecideds.
  4. Abbott probably read about Tren de Aragua in Time magazine.
  5. If you’re referencing the electoral college changing, I could only see change if somehow a couple of large, reddish states suddenly flipped blue. Think Texas and Florida. I know I know but stick with me a second. At that point, the red states would be such a minority in the House and would never sniff the WH at all. Their only remaining option is using the senate to block everything. perhaps the Dems could then look to drastically increase the House size, which in turn increases the electoral college size. This would water down the influence of the smaller states in the electoral college. But then again if Dems added a Texas and/or Florida, why would they want to waste time changing the electoral college?
  6. I would imagine there were plenty of non- terrorists that were also injured today which makes it tough to cheer Israel for this. if you send 1000s of small bombs into the wild and then remotely detonate them, you have no idea who is holding onto them. Even if you think the majority will be held by full blown terrorists, there is still many others who get hurt. my guess is that this was led by someone in Israel who wants a wider war with Islamic countries.
  7. Exactly. They’re not going to trust any device. If I were Israel I would allow more rumors that they could do this to any device and/or there are more out there.
  8. The polling companies, media companies and even Harris campaign are cool with a story that the race is a dead heat. A close race helps them all financially. you won’t hear a real opinion from the Harris campaign until the results start to come in. And perhaps until the last person votes in NV and AZ.
  9. You’re getting your Nates confused. Nate Cohn works for the NYT not Silver.
  10. The Haitians are not animals. They have to cook the pet cat before eating it. In this case, they let the fire get a bit out of hand.
  11. Agree. This is why the upcoming VP debate is so important. Walz needs to keep his same image and mannerisms why calling out Vance for fake facts and being weird. Short of Trump being shot again, and I hope there is no more violence, I don't see him having much opportunity to grow his percentages.
  12. In fairness with the recent developments of Loomer, this may lower to 50% in the near future.
  13. I've read that the Florida abortion protection ballot initiative has polled as high as 55% plan to vote for it, 26% against and 20% unsure. I believe it requires 60% approval to pass. Now it's possible that someone will vote for the abortion protection and also vote for Trump, but I doubt that's high number. And perhaps a few will only vote on the abortion initiative and leave the rest blank. I have to believe that the venn diagrams for both sides of the initiative and the presidential candidate have a high correlation.
  14. just came here to post it. The individual polls have her a positive for several weeks now and it just took some time for 538 to knock down the weight of the older polls. great news. as comparison, Trump is at a -9.6% has been trending worse lately on 538. EDIT: 538 has also adjusted their overall win probability to 61-39. It was 55-45 a week ago. While not a giant move, it does show that we're going in the right direction, no matter who is truly ahead.
  15. Yep. I paid $2.50 the other day. I have to wonder if Trump has asked some oil execs what it would take to temporarily raise prices to $4. when I’m around some of my more trumpier friends, I like to talk about how great it is economically. I don’t assign any credit to Biden or the govt, but just throw out facts or perception. “Can’t believe it only cost $2.50 for gas.” “Crazy how well the stock market has taken off and hit all time highs. Anyone who owns stocks has never been better.” for one or two, I might get a “no thanks to Biden” for this good news. I play dumb and say that I don’t know who to credit but keep giving me more of the same regardless of who is in power.
  16. Bring in Michael Keaton to rally the troops in meeting the monthly quota numbers.
  17. I would bet the crisis manual item #1 is to release as little information as possible to limit liability claims. This will be the priority of the company. Wouldn’t be surprised if those in the evacuation zone are being asked to sign a release today in exchange for $5,000. We want to help you get back on your feet ASAP but I can only do that if you sign this 10 page document right this second. Not to mention PI lawyers also descending on them which is who I would sign with.
  18. When the price of gas, food, whatever goes up, then some blame the President. Hint: The President actually has extremely little to do with prices across the board. After all we're a capitalistic economy not an authoritarian dictatorship. But when someone gets a promotion, raise at work, or new high paying job, it's all due to their hard work and not because that employer is selling their product/services at higher levels due to inflation.
  19. We intentionally make it easy for the wrong people to get their hands on firearms. It should be expected that these people and firearms end up where we all agree they should not be there. Law enforcement is given little power to prevent it. Instead of potentially stopping the assassin at many gates along the way, we instead have limited safety enforcement at the very last step. Sometimes law enforcement is successful at stopping them, sometimes they're not. And I agree that gun restrictions will not stop all assassinations or mass murders. It will just lower the incidents. But America has decided otherwise.
  20. Time to upgrade from SD to 4K. A good 55 inch TV can be <$500.
  21. While completely stupid, it would be hilarious if the Dems become the the “we’re not eating cats” party implying the opposite of the gop.
  22. Love how everyone in these loomer media discussions avoid the obvious. Trump has other loonies in his orbit and some are attractive compared to loomer but there must be strong rumors which is putting the focus on her. Two current mentions of her on the cnn homepage. I expect some trump allies are feeding the press info hoping Trump will send her home. Trump probably can’t just kick her to the curb. She’s the type who shows up to your office when mad. In this case she can scream about their late night campaign advice sessions.
  23. Depending on Spurrier’s business interests or financial needs, if any, he may be forced to apologize or clarify his statement. If some southerners hear that he is anti-gun or woke, he could potentially lose a lot of money. both sides like to accuse each other of cancel culture but in reality they both do it.
  24. Used to work with a guy who would make jokes that came across as out of left field. After a while, a few of us figured it out by asking him about each joke. His explanation made us realize that he would listen to a real conversation and then continue the conversation in his head ultimately leading to a “funny” retort which he would say out loud. It only slightly made sense in context of the conversation in his head. Elon is most likely a very lonely guy and even if he has people around him, it’s only because of his money. That doesn’t excuse his boorish if not offensive behavior, but it’s the most likely explanation. In his mind, this tweet was a funny and clever message.
  25. I respect the guy’s actions but there’s a point that you’re just wasting your money. Which is his right.
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