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WBT

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Posts posted by WBT

  1. 54 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


    Not really. I just don’t see many reasons for optimism. It’s just being realistic. We’re all on a plane where the wings have fallen off. We can mess with the rudder to steer the fuselage to crash into one mountain or the other....but we’re gonna crash. Just calling it, coldly, like I see it.

    Calling your WAG realistic doesn't make it better than others' WAG.

    • Like 1
  2. Wow, that garotting was unexpected. 

    So the powerful, murderous head of your company tells you that you're going to be somewhere the next night and your plan to thwart him is to just hang out at home?

    I liked that poem and I also did not recognize it.  It was Phillip Larkin.

  3. 8 hours ago, DixonHur said:

    Shocker...EMA can't do math.

    You can't count people who are still sick as recovered, you dumb fucking idiot.

    So far in the US there have been about (it changes so quickly) 18,747 deaths and 27,314 recoveries.  I.e. roughly 1.5 recoveries per death... I'd say that's slightly more that 1 out of 250.

    The fact is we won't know the actual number until this is all over, but I'm willing to bet that US's final tally is at least 10x more deadly than your preposterous 1 out of 250 claim.

    https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/

    Quote

    Taking account of historical experience, trends in the data, increased number of infections in the population at largest, and potential impact of misclassification of deaths gives a presumed estimate for the COVID-19 IFR between 0.1% and 0.39%.*

    This estimate is that between 1 in 1000 and 1 in 250 infected die.  Many people are nonsymptomatic and we're not testing nearly everyone with symptoms.  EMAW's number is probably not that far off.  With how infectious this is though, the social distancing efforts are still justified in my mind.

  4. 10 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

    That doesn't change the fact that 1.) The leanings of rural areas make it likely many are going to jump the gun on ending restrictions, and 2.) They're not as well equipped to handle a surge in cases because of how rural health infrastructure has been allowed to deteriorate in this country.
     

     

     

    Those factors pale in comparison with the leaning toward living on top of each other and packing public transportation.  But everyone keeps beating that drum, maybe the country rubes really will overrun the big city medicine hotels any day now.

  5. 1 hour ago, Message Board User said:

     

    That's interesting about the governors getting bounces.  Trump did get a bounce but it was smaller than just about every other national leader's, even Conte's, and has basically disappeared already.

  6. On 4/7/2020 at 9:55 AM, WBT said:

    MLBN is airing the 1991 World Series Game 7 tomorrow at 5 am.  Set your DVRs to see why Jack Morris got in the HOF.

    I had this on today while working at home.  I hadn't seen it since it happened and back then my mom made me go to bed after the 9th so I had to watch the run score on the news the next morning. 

    The 8th inning was incredible.  Both halves ended on a double play with the bases loaded.  Today, the baseball internet would lose its mind that Kelly left Morris in to escape the jam in the top half.  Lonnie Smith got deked badly and should have scored from first on Pendleton's double. 

    Then with 2nd and 3rd and no out, Ronnie Gant hit a dribbler right to the 1st baseman (after he struck out with 2 on earlier in the game to end an inning).  Then an intentional walk and Sid Bream hits into your garden-variety 3-2-3 double play.

    In the bottom of the 8th, the Twins had 1st and 3rd with 1 out and Cox pulled Smoltz for Mike Stanton.  He intentionally walked Puckett to force the insurance run to 2nd (another move I don't think most managers would do today) and Hrbek hit a soft liner for a 4 unassisted double play.

    What a pitchers' duel.  I can't imagine watching that game with a rooting interesting.  I'd be a wreck.  2017 was bad enough when the Astros scored early and coasted to the end.

     

    If y'all can't tell, I'm jonesing for some baseball.

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