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WBT

Legacy Members

Posts posted by WBT

  1. 5 minutes ago, Knighthawk said:

    WV front three are legit and more than enough to shut down the horns running game and pressure the shit out of Sam.  Only way we beat wv is a great performance by the D.   

    They would have beat us last year if they had Doege instead of that OU reject that couldn't hold off Rattler

  2. ·

    Edited by WBT

    2 hours ago, UTHornFan014 said:

    Reading an ESPN article and it said that the bunt actually reduced our winning percentage from ~49% to ~48%. I still think it was the right call in that situation (with Maldonado being a big DP or K candidate)

    I don't know what that article was using but most of those winning percentage estimates are based on run expectancy tables for a given state of outs and men on base averaged over an entire season or several seasons (ie with runners on 1st and 2nd and no outs, team average x additional runs per inning but with runners on 2nd and 3rd and 1 out, they average y additional runs per inning).  But when it's close, like in this case, you have to consider the matchups.  Like was said, how likely is Machete to strike out or gidp?  And how likely is he to get the bunt down?  He's actually a pretty good bunter from what I've seen.  And in this case, the bunt was to move 2 runners into scoring position for Springer and Altuve, better than average hitters.  

    I think in general analytics has it right that there was way too much bunting in the old days.  And Alex Rodriguez whining about the lack of bunting every time a runner is on gets old.  But in this case, I think it was a justifiable play.

  3. 19 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

    Uncle Charlie starting tomorrow. Coupled with Glasnow, we have our work cut out for us. 

    We need to hope Charlie comes out like in Game 2 but that we don't let him off the hook/hit a bunch of at'em balls this time.

    Quote

    The Astros put 15 balls into play against Morton, hitting them hard enough to combine for a healthy .473 xBA per Statcast. To put that into context, of all the games this year during which the starting pitcher faced at least 10 batters, including the postseason, Morton’s xBA was the 15th-worst. And for the most part, the other high-xBA games were fairly ugly:

     
    Worst xBA Starts, 2020
    Pitcher Date xBA IP H ER Team Result
    Justin Dunn 8/17 .597 2.0 5 6 Loss
    Antonio Santos 9/25 .564 0.7 5 6 Loss
    Robert Gsellman 9/3 .556 1.7 4 4 Win
    Brandon Bielak 8/22 .553 1.3 5 7 Loss
    Tarik Skubal 8/18 .542 2.0 7 4 Loss
    Sean Newcomb 8/10 .510 1.3 6 8 Loss
    Matt Harvey 9/1 .495 1.3 7 5 Loss
    Taijuan Walker 9/15 .492 1.7 6 1 Loss
    Patrick Sandoval 8/24 .490 2.7 7 5 Loss
    José Suarez 8/20 .489 1.3 5 5 Loss
    Sixto Sánchez 10/8 .487 3.0 4 4 Loss
    Zach Davies 10/7 .484 5.0 9 4 Loss
    Rich Hill 8/19 .483 2.7 4 4 Loss
    Seth Lugo 9/17 .475 1.7 8 6 Win
    Charlie Morton 10/12 .473 5.0 5 0 Win
    Jimmy Yacabonis 9/14 .471 1.3 2 1 Loss
    Kyle Freeland 9/27 .471 2.3 8 6 Loss
    Steven Matz 8/4 .470 3.0 7 5 Loss
    Jonathan Stiever 9/18 .468 2.7 5 6 Loss
    Mike Montgomery 7/27 .466 2.0 5 3 Win

     

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