
WBT
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Posts posted by WBT
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51 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:
So, let's do the math. In order for the US death toll to reach 50K people by April 15th, it will have to climb by 18.2% per day above today's # of 4,053 American deaths:
1.1824 ^ 15 = 12.34
12.34 X 4053 = 50,014
Here are the rolling per-day multiples of American deaths, using the last "N" days:
1 day: 1.290
2 days: 1.253
3 days: 1.222
4 days: 1.244
5 days: 1.256
6 days: 1.257
7 days: 1.265
So even going back and fitting an exponential curve to the last "N" days where "N" ranges from 1 to 7, we never see the growth rate drop below 1.222 deaths per day. A growth rate going forward of 1.182 deaths per day will put the United States at 50,000 deaths by April 15th.
Color me skeptical we'll miss that horrible result by a big margin (say, less than 25K deaths), ESPECIALLY given the fact that it takes roughly 2-3 weeks from infection for victims to die. If you're infected now, and your lot is cast because of whatever preexisting conditions you might have that correlate with high risk, then you're quite possibly fucked by April 15th.
Sorry to be so glum, but I think people are being far too optimistic about how this will play out. Yes, shelter-in-place should have a positive effect, and even social distancing to some degree, but in the near term, I'm not sure there is much that's going to happen to slow down this runaway train. As everyone knows, the hope is that we don't overrun the hospitals, which is already starting to happen.
And by May 22nd, we'll have 346 million dead in the US!
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I wish the media would stop spreading Chinese propaganda. The latest is the reporting that NY cases have surpassed Wuhan.
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I'd never heard of him either. Holy shit about the reverse Rodney King bit and then calling the NAACP home-grown monkeys.
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15 hours ago, PilotsError said:
The plan wasn't to get him bail. Lalo is throwing a wrench into shit so now they need him out so presumably they can get him killed somehow and not have it tie to them.
Also, I don't give a fuck about anything outside of the drug shit.
4 minutes ago, kevwun said:Right, they had to change the plan. Now they need him out so that he will flee to Mexico where they can presumably have him killed somehow. Gus said they couldn't touch him while he was in the US because the cartel would know it was them.
It seems like Gus/Mike should have foreseen that he'd still be able to work with people from in jail but I guess I can buy that.
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I thought for sure Fring was going to have Mike get Jimmy to throw the defense of Lalo. I'm probably just missing something but why have Mike get him arrested only to have him jump bail right after? Surely not just to cost him the $7 million?
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36 minutes ago, Enchubben said:
The asian populations probably knew the seriousness of this earlier than your everyday americans and thus quarantined themselves. I can tell you even in Houston, Chinatown was shut down and people were staying home well before the required social distancing and quarantines were in effect. They are also better at wearing masks.
They can also turn a tv into a watch?
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Is Mummy allowed to cuddle Darren?
Michael McKean was really good in this.
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Madrigal!
Did I do that right? It's been so long since the Breaking Bad thread on the scat site.
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2 hours ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:
Very interesting link. You can drill down to individual counties. This site uses cell phone location data to see who is staying put and who is still moving around. Travis County got an 'A' rating and is in the top 5 counties in Texas:
https://www.unacast.com/covid19/social-distancing-scoreboard
I'm not sure how well reduction in movement correlates to social distancing. For starters, counties with more baseline commuters/longer commutes will score higher. Counties with more health care workers/critical industry will score worse. And why does movement necessarily correlate with proximity to others? What if I go for an afternoon drive every day to clear my head, never getting out of my car?
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1 hour ago, closetojumping said:
HOLY FUCKING SHIT!!!
GreenspointTexas and achooloco are now turning their turrets towards the tried and true “your best is not good enough!” premise in order to decry the need for a global martial law because we need the police and military to protect us from ourselves.
Some people won't be happy until we're all in individual 8 by 10 cells
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1 hour ago, Onboard 2.0 said:
But their Hunan
ChickenBat is too die for.-
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53 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:
So upthread, there was the annoucement of the French officially sanctioning hydroxychloroquine.
Here is the link to the study and the language of the abstract.
https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/COVID-IHU-2-1.pdf
that sounds fantastic
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18 hours ago, henrygandorf said:
hey why not. it’s been a few days since i had a good cry.
meanwhile, lenny dykstra’s linkedin invite gathers dust in my inbox.
At least record it and watch Hatcher's HR.
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Gooden is celebrating in the dugout, already in street clothes. Sweet pink pinstriped dress shirt with at least the top 4 buttons undone.
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f Gary Carter.
He was 1 for 21 in the series but walked it off with a single up the middle.
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Lulz, McCarver told a story about Kerfeld saying that the previous 3 years he was in the instructional league for minor leaguers after the season ended. He was hoping to go back in '86 to get his letterman jacket.
Fucking Wally Backman just reached when the short hop ate up Walling. Ruled a hit? Very questionable.
And Kerfeld throws away the pickoff to allow him to get to 2nd. I remembered very little of this game, what a shitty way to lose.
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This is the 3rd ever LCS game to go to 12 innings. Game 6 is going to be the 4th.
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Kerfeld has looked really good in the 10th and 11th. I think he can give us one more. Checks box score. Goddammit.
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McCarver just said a pitch was right down Westheimer because he said Houston people said he was biased when he called a pitch as right down Broadway earlier in the series. I think I might have liked the 1986 version of McCarver.
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We had something going in the 2nd. Bass led off with a single and Cruz followed it up with a beautiful hit and run single. Then Ashby struck out and Reynolds hit into a "double play." Reynolds was easily safe but fucking Brocklander blew the call. So there's another reason we should have got to Game 7.
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Tim McCarver was just talking about Gary Carter and Ashby both being good pitch framers. He had the SABR nerds beat by 30 years!
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Damn, Walling is playing like 15 feet in front of the bag against bitchass Lenny Dykstra.
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I just checked the boxscore. Nolan went 9 IP 2 H 1 R 1 ER 1 BB 12 SO at 39 years old. Only 1 walk for him was a damn miracle. If not for a solo HR by Strawberry, we win 1-0 and get to Game 7 with Scotty on the mound. Of course, we had 7 LOB in 10 innings vs Gooden which didn't help. Glenn Davis just flew out to the warning tack to end the 1st.
f Wally Backman
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Game 5 starting now. Ryan vs Gooden. I think Nolan pulls this off and then we'll have 2 shots at home to close this out...naw, I can't do it. This was a terrible idea.
Keith Jackson on the call.
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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away
in Cloak Room
Posted
To a large extent, people are going to do what they're going to do regardless of what the government says. That will certainly vary place to place based on cultural factors.