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WBT

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Posts posted by WBT

  1. On 11/5/2020 at 10:57 PM, Brisketexan said:

    I said the race was a toss-up for the last two months.

    I was called a kook, a loon, etc.

    The modern polling model is broken, and it is particularly unsuited to poll cult membership as opposed to political leanings.

    Except that it wasn't a toss up.  Closer than the polls said for sure but not particularly close.  2000, 2004, and 2016 were toss-ups.

  2. I finally saw some numbers on estimated outstanding votes for NC at 538:

    • North Carolina: North Carolina has counted every ballot it had in its possession as of Tuesday, and Trump currently leads by 76,515 votes. However, the state has announced that about 130,900 mail-in ballots and 40,766 provisional ballots are potentially outstanding, although not all of them will count. Mail-in ballots can arrive until Nov. 12 and still be counted, and at that point more results will be released.

    So if the maximum number of mail-in and provisional votes show up (they won't), Biden would need to win ~72% to close the gap.  You would expect mail-in and provisional to lean to Biden but probably not that much.  I'm finally satisfied that the people saying Trump will hang on to NC were correct.

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