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WBT

Legacy Members

Posts posted by WBT

  1. 1 hour ago, BradInATX said:

    Check this out. I've been casually batting this around in my head and we've talked about it some here but I decided to put something on the screen to get a real look at it. 

    I can't get it out of my head how badly some of the individual state polls missed last time around and there's a "worst case scenario" that I can't kick. So I put some "what if 2016 happens again" numbers together.

    This shows who would win battleground states based on current polling vs. each state's actual election results and how they skewed vs. the RCP polling average on election day. Black line represents the 2016 poll miss, the bars are Biden's current poll lead. What we want to see is the bar go past the line. So for example in PA Biden's lead is 5.7%, but RCP missed by 2.6% last time. If the polls missed the same way, Biden would still win by 3.1%, which is my "adjusted" number.

    7784972_polladjustment.JPG.63de006bfe390be39819fae8e6dd120f.JPG

     

    A few things stand out:

    - AZ, MI, PA all look very safe and pretty well out of reach of polling error.
    - Arizona is actually the most solid swing state out there in this analysis. It's more likely to go Biden than Wisconsin is IMO. Arizona could end up being our surprise insurance policy against the Rust Belt.
    - Look at how crazy Wisconsin is. Biden is up by 6.3% but Trump outperformed polls by a huge 7.2% last time. I don't trust Wisconsin at all.
    - Despite him having small polling leads, Biden is not probably not going to win Ohio or Iowa unless this is an absolute best-case scenario wipeout election.

    This eased my nerves a little. Even if Wisconsin does weird white people things, and even if you call GA/FL "too close to call", the PA/MI/AZ combo gets Biden there:

    map3.JPG.b2612f8793f6b2b56565b0135d21a5b6.JPG

     

    Obviously not as much of a statement as you'd like it to be, and would spark endless lawsuits, but it puts Biden in office. And if Florida and one or both of GA/NC go blue too, it's a pretty resounding win. 

    The only chance Trump has to win is if there's some sort of hidden groundswell of newly-politically-active Trump voters that none of the pollsters or pundits are picking up (possible), and there is no corresponding bump for team blue (seems almost impossible). 

    Congrats for starting to look at this objectively.  There's still way too much bed wetting going on.

    Biden's floor is in the low 330s.  I'd put the over/under somewhere around 348-350.  That will be decided on whether he wins Ohio or Georgia.

  2. 2 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

    Texas GOP taking Harris county to the Supreme Court to remove the drive-in voting. And I guarantee they will ask for those votes to be invalidated as well.

    My expectation is the the Supreme Court will stop drive-in voting but NOT invalidate the votes already cast. 

    How does the drive-in voting work?

  3. ·

    Edited by WBT

    Raley will go back out to start the 7th but we're down to James, Pressly, Sneed, and De Jong in the pen.  It may be tight.  Probably we should put up a 10 spot just in case.

    edit - I'm assuming Javier isn't available today.  Darling seems to think he is though.

  4. 2 minutes ago, Gourmand said:

    Since the game is over and we won, I'm happy to engage in criticism about the announcers. 

    No matter what, these guys are light years better than the asshats at ESPN or FOX. I like Francoeur, he's fair-minded mostly. 

    Yeah, overall I've liked the TBS crews.  The pbp guy in our first round was better than this guy though.  Frenchy and Darling have both been pretty good.  I agree with you that they're better than just about all the fox and espn crews.

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