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WBT

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Posts posted by WBT

  1. On 11/5/2020 at 10:57 PM, Brisketexan said:

    I said the race was a toss-up for the last two months.

    I was called a kook, a loon, etc.

    The modern polling model is broken, and it is particularly unsuited to poll cult membership as opposed to political leanings.

    Except that it wasn't a toss up.  Closer than the polls said for sure but not particularly close.  2000, 2004, and 2016 were toss-ups.

  2. I finally saw some numbers on estimated outstanding votes for NC at 538:

    • North Carolina: North Carolina has counted every ballot it had in its possession as of Tuesday, and Trump currently leads by 76,515 votes. However, the state has announced that about 130,900 mail-in ballots and 40,766 provisional ballots are potentially outstanding, although not all of them will count. Mail-in ballots can arrive until Nov. 12 and still be counted, and at that point more results will be released.

    So if the maximum number of mail-in and provisional votes show up (they won't), Biden would need to win ~72% to close the gap.  You would expect mail-in and provisional to lean to Biden but probably not that much.  I'm finally satisfied that the people saying Trump will hang on to NC were correct.

  3. 28 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

    I think a judicial interpretation of a law that says "due on election day" into "due three days after the election" if postmarked before is just a bridge too far.

    I agree.  This seems to be the only one that has merit.  I also agree that the margin is going to be big enough without those votes that it won't matter.

  4. ·

    Edited by WBT

    11 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

    I don't agree with that.  It sets a narrative and frames any future election challenges.  Florida in 2000 would've been viewed through a very different lens if the networks hadn't called it for Bush.

    They called it for Gore first, then went to too close to call, then for Bush, then back to too close to call, all by late night/early morning of election day.  The original count and first full state recount finding Bush ahead were much more dispositive.

  5. 2 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

    "How many votes will Trump lose by in Pennsylvania?"

    "About Tree Gritty!!!"

    These crazy Philadelphians can set fire to Santa's sleigh vs just throwing battery packed snowballs at him for all I care after this awesome display of voting prowess!!

    You may be onto something.  Biden's cancel Christmas plan fits in nicely with Philly's throw snowballs at Santa ethos.

  6. ·

    Edited by WBT

    18 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

    Nevada doesn’t want to be the death blow for trump.  It seems like none of the states want that distinction.

    Why do y'all keep saying that?  Nevada said since the beginning they're updating once per day.  GA and PA are updating as they go and seem right now like they're in a race to deliver the death blow.

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