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ryskey

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Everything posted by ryskey

  1. Iowa State just went on a huge run and doubled their score
  2. This is fair. So is this. Been mentioned plenty of times, but there's a huge gap between what you think SHOULD happen in a vacuum versus what you think WILL happen with all the constraints imposed by all the politics involved. Answering the latter, Sweet 16 gets him the job.
  3. ryskey

    Rodney Terry

    I'm very far from NIL expert, but according to this random dude on the internet, the most common Euro basketball salaries are between $400-$800k. So NIL would need to get somewhere close to that. I would hope NIL could get Disu $500k? https://www.josecolorado.com/blog/euroleague-basketball-salary
  4. Website still up. Check out the video on tax and liquidity strategies for founders. On its surface, it might just look like standard wealth management. But if you play it out, particularly in light of tech valuations, there's a lot of potential for the bank to exert a ton of leverage over founders and their companies and introduce huge conflicts of interest. https://www.svb.com/private-bank/who-we-help/founders
  5. Everything here stinks. Wretched. The US has the most sophisticated corruption in the world. https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1634683511972962313?s=20 https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1634605973208801280?s=20 SVB promised to provided an exit of sorts to tech founders based on inflated valuations in return for their commercial banking business. Who's screaming the loudest? VC and tech founders. A lot of the "loans" are of this form, and I have no idea how they'll be valued, so I retract my previous statement about the loan book being sufficient to cover most of the depositor shortfall. A lot of it is crypto-related, so it'll be interesting to see how 3rd party banks value founder equity - which is the collateral for the partial exits SVB provided.
  6. LOL, VC version of toilet paper hoarding
  7. There's something very visceral about bank failures that leads to a lot of strong emotions and speculation. Kind of the same appeal of watching post-apocalyptic movies. Doomporn or whatever. A $15B business had liabilities exceed its assets. That's not uncommon, and many businesses can survive that for a time. This one happened to be a bank. And the nature of this particular business has to plan around the self-fulfilling prophecy of contagious visceral fear and panic. Atrocious risk management by SVB. I'm sure it's worked out before for others in that situation, but holy shit, hedge your risk. It's a stress test that takes 1 tab in a spreadsheet. It's not hard and not complicated. If not interest rate swaps, there are a million other ways to do this. This is not the first time interest rates have shot up and it won't be the last. This is either incompetence or negligence and the market taking care of a very poorly run business. Worst case scenario, if someone values the loan book reasonably, depositors get 90% of their money back, and likely 100% when another bank wins the auction, so the fear is disproportional with respect to the real financial risk - which is $15B of equity and debt wiped out with depositors getting all their money but uncomfortable inconveniences in the meantime.
  8. He did great last night. Looking forward to 2023.
  9. I'm glad they changed their name to the Washington Huskies. Huskies > Bulldogs
  10. When did DC get a college football team
  11. Records in 1-score games TCU 5-0 KSU 2-2 Texas 2-4 OkSt 2-1 BU 2-3 TT 3-0 OU 0-3 KU 3-1 WVU 2-1 ISU 1-6 The Big 12 has 7 above average teams team with wildly different outcomes in close games. Two average teams who've done well in close games (KU, TT). And one below average team (WVU). No one is elite or terrible. Being clutch is a thing and huge intangible. Good for TCU and their chutzpah. Bad for UT. But mean reversion always happens. Take avg margin of victory - ISU, despite being last in the Big 12 at 4-7, is outscoring their opponents by an average margin of 4.2 points. Play this season 100 times and they'd normally be 7-4 right now. TCU is undefeated and their avg margin is 14 points. Play their season 100 times and they'd normally be 8-3 or 9-2 right now. If TCU makes it to the CFP (and they probably should if they win the last 2 games as a reward for being so clutch), they're going to face a good opponent for the first time this year and they're going to get stomped. For the sake of making this a more entertaining CFP, I hope they choke away one of the last 2.
  12. Alabama team passer rating by year, OC, and starting QB(s) 2014 - Kiffin - Sims (SR) - 156 2015 - Kiffin - Coker (SR) - 144 2016 - Kiffin - Hurts (FR) - 143 2017 - Locksley - Hurts (SO) / Tagovailoa (FR) - 156 2018 - Locksley - Tagovailoa (SO) / Hurts (JR) - 197 2019 - Sarkisian - Tagovailoa (JR) / Jones (SO) - 200 2020 - Sarkisian - Jones (JR) - 191 2021 - O'Brien - Young (SO) - 167 2022 - O'Brien - Young (JR) - 150 First, damn that's one hell of a stretch of good QBs. Outside Lincoln Riley, those team passer ratings in Locksley's last year and Sark's 2 years would have been the best ever 3 year stretch in FBS history. Probably, not sure how to look that up. It's hard to call a Heisman year a drop-off, but based on passer ratings, Young's 2021 season was a step down. And judging by the dropoff from last year to this year, largely enabled by 2 first day draft picks at WR. Sark had similar (better?) talent at WR but his teams were a lot more efficient passing the ball. Sark + non-freshman QB looks like a good combo. Ewers is painful to watch this year but looking forward to the combination of Sark and sophomore Ewers.
  13. Thru yesterday. #6 for UT career rushing yards (3328) #10 in rushing TDs (31) #6 in total yards (4035) Tied for #4 in total TDs (39) If he has 2 more games this year like his first 11, he'd finish 2022 #4 in career rushing yards Tied for #5 in rushing TDs (Tied with Cody Johnson???) #4 in total yards #3 in total TDs If he has 3 more games (including CCG) #4 in career rushing yards Tied for #4 in rushing TDs #4 in total yards but very close to surpassing Earl for #3 #3 in total TDs If he comes back for a senior season (so you're telling me there's a chance), he'd probably end up #2 on just about everything.
  14. 14% from 3 70% from 2 Don't think I've ever seen a spread like that.
  15. Just 2 RBs getting odds. Jahmyr Gibbs wtf? Blake Corum makes sense, but switch UT's record with UM's and that's Bijan coming with the 3rd best odds. Rushing stats are comparable and Bijan has more yards from scrimmage. C.J. Stroud Ohio State +175 +200 Hendon Hooker Tennessee +300 +6600 Blake Corum Michigan +600 +8000 Caleb Williams USC +800 +600 Bo Nix Oregon +800 +5000 Drake Maye North Carolina +1200 [Off the Board] Stetson Bennett Georgia +1600 +5000 Bryce Young Alabama +3300 +350 Max Duggan TCU +4000 [Off the Board] Jahmyr Gibbs Alabama +15000 +3000 Will Anderson Jr. Alabama +30000 +2000 Jalon Daniels Kansas [Off the Board] [Off the Board]
  16. As of Oct 17 #13 for UT career rushing yards (2610) #14 in rushing TDs (25) #10 in total yards (3340) #12 in total TDs (32) If he has 6 more games this year like his first 7, he'd finish 2022 #5 in career rushing yards #8 in rushing TDs #4 in total yards Tied for #3 in total TDs Not bad for what amounts to 2.5 seasons.
  17. Does Jobu do football too?
  18. Haven't watched any of their games this year except a bit of NU/OU, so I'm trying to figure out why they were so bad against TCU. KSU exposed them as not being top 10, but KSU is also a pretty good team this year, and a 7 point loss to them isn't that bad. They crushed NU, and ya that was an emotional week for the Huskers so maybe an outlier, but NU will probably end up 4-8 or 5-7. So which is more of an outlier? TCU or NU? Or is this a wheels coming off situation?
  19. Lots of factions within Russia that have wildly divergent interests. My money is on a faction of hard line Russian military or FSB - the sabotage removes one of the key "risks" to diplomatic solution. As long as trade with Europe is mutually beneficial, there is an incentive to continue entertaining a diplomatic end to the conflict. On the other end of the spectrum is the sub-faction of commercially-minded oligarchs whose wealth is directly tied to continued gas flows to Europe. They are probably pretty pissed off. The potash/nickel//iron/etc oligarchs might be sympathetic to FSB hardliners since their pocketbooks aren't being hit.
  20. How many starting quarterbacks in the country are clearly better than Frank Harris? 5? Dude is so consistent, every time he got flushed from the pocket you just knew he'd find someone half a yard past the first down marker. Frustrating as hell for UT fans but that dude is amazing.
  21. 27-16 Texas 338 yards
  22. I think you have to exclude ball bearings at this point https://www.bearing-news.com/bearing-industry-update-on-ukraine-russia-conflict-part-2-may-2022/
  23. Little did we know that Grand Master Jacques de Molay had a bastard son a few months before being burned at the stake, and his direct descendant is a Bama fan who cursed an effigy of Bevo on the morning of January 7, 2010 behind a Waffle House. Today, I undo that curse. BRB gonna sacrifice a goat to Hermes Texas 30 Bama 29 Ewers 230 passing, 60 rushing (wtf?!) for 290 total
  24. https://fortune.com/2022/03/22/texas-wind-solar-coal-troubled-electrical-grid/ Moar transmission. Price of getting electricity to market needs to be added to any LCOE analysis.
  25. Everyone in the top 10 in season RBI is before BBCOR, but the cutoff is 118.
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