The Athletic ran 16 playoff scenarios based on the conference championship games. Taking the 8 scenarios out where Texas loses, half of them show us in playoffs:
Predicting the College Football Playoff field: The 16 possible scenarios
Scenario 1: Georgia, Washington, FSU and Texas win.
1. Georgia (13-0)
2. Michigan (13-0)
3. Washington (13-0)
4. Florida State (13-0)
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5. Texas (12-1)
Obviously, this one is as straightforward as it gets.
Scenario 3: Georgia, Washington, Louisville and Texas win.
1. Georgia (13-0)
2. Michigan (13-0)
3. Washington (13-0)
4. Texas (12-1)
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5. Ohio State (11-1)
As a 12-1 conference champ, Texas gets the nod over Ohio State.
Scenario 5: Georgia, Oregon, FSU and Texas win.
1. Georgia (13-0)
2. Michigan (13-0)
3. Oregon (12-1)
4. Florida State (13-0)
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5. Texas (12-1)
The committee has consistently placed one-loss Oregon above one-loss Texas despite the Horns arguably owning a better resume; so no reason to think that changes if the Ducks beat a 12-0 opponent in their last game. I even have them passing undefeated FSU.
Scenario 7: Georgia, Oregon, Louisville and Texas win.
1. Georgia (13-0)
2. Michigan (13-0)
3. Oregon (12-1)
4. Texas (12-1)
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5. Washington (12-1)
Another tough call at No. 4, especially given Texas would have to move up three spots, but the Horns would be a conference champ and the Huskies would not.
Scenario 9: Alabama, Washington, Florida State and Texas win.
1. Michigan (13-0)
2. Washington (13-0)
3. Alabama (12-1)
4. Florida State (13-0)
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5. Georgia (12-1)
Scenario 11: Alabama, Washington, Louisville and Texas win.
1. Michigan (13-0)
2. Washington (13-0)
3. Alabama (12-1)
4. Texas (12-1)
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5. Georgia (12-1)
Texas vs. Georgia would be an absolutely maddening debate, but I again default to the conference champion. Especially since Texas won at Alabama.
Scenario 13: Alabama, Oregon, Florida State and Texas win.
1. Michigan (13-0)
2. Alabama (12-1)
3. Oregon (12-1)
4. Florida State (13-0)
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5. Georgia (12-1)
Now, both one-loss Alabama and one-loss Oregon enter the picture. Georgia may claim to be better than Oregon, but Georgia would not have just beaten a 12-0 team.
Scenario 15: Alabama, Oregon, Louisville and Texas win.
1. Michigan (13-0)
2. Alabama (12-1)
3. Oregon (12-1)
4. Texas (12-1)
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5. Georgia (12-1)
Same as Scenario 11, just with a different Pac-12 team.
All told, here’s how often each team gets in:
• Michigan: 16
• Georgia: 10
• Washington: 9
• Oregon: 8
• Alabama: 8
• FSU: 8
• Texas: 4
• Ohio State: 1
Note they don’t even entertain Michigan losing. Poor Iowa.