CleverNickname

There are decades when nothing happens; and there are weeks when decades happen. — Lenin.

Adler up... local disaster declared. Cancels SXSW

Not started yet. "Will SXSW start Monday?" "We will address that momentarily." (Nit officially started yet)

COA about to cancel SXSW?

I think I mentioned (weeks ago?) that half of SARS survivors never worked again. Chronic fatigue. Maybe that could happen to the 10% with acute pneumonia from Covid19.

Cfr is case fatality rate. Deaths per diagnosed case. Todays total SK numbers are more like 37 deaths on 6008 cases. Still 0.6%. But if many of those cases are in first week, the deaths could quadruple and we are back in scary 2% zone.

SK: 32 deaths; 5200 cases = 0.6% cfr on 80,000 tests.

The good: The bad:

I dont think Cloak Room containment strategy should be abandoned. We have been successful in that strategy. However, we need to prepare for any eventuality and explore mitigation techniques if it becomes necessary.

Well, sure football managers opinions don't count. But I work in the same building* as the Board of Nursing. So I'm pretty close to the heath profession. Adjacent to allied health. And really, isn't an ally of an ally just an ally? * technically different towers, but we share a lobby

Good article: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-03/how-fast-will-the-new-coronavirus-spread-two-sides-of-the-debate

In 2009 the then-novel H1N1 infected 60M. It turned out to be very mild. Maybe it does turn out to be easier to slow down and stop. That would be awesome. But for now my mom is a 72 year old smoker so I'm tossing out the weird stuff from her freezer and looking up real estate agents to list her house.

I'm sure the Houston/Harris strategy has nothing to do with the rodeo...

Caveat: Deaths lag identification of cases by 2-3 weeks.

Life Care Center: 108 residents. 5 already dead.

I see a lot of photos of the old folks from WA being moved to hospital care and hell of a lot of people wearing some basic masks and not much else in terms of PPE. The Wuhan coverage seemed terrifying precisely because of the head to toe gear health officials were wearing. The WA response looks terrifying because it looks likely a poorly thought through shitshow.

https://medium.com/@amwren/forget-about-the-death-rate-this-is-why-you-should-be-worried-about-the-coronavirus-890fbf9c4de6

NY Times: The virus may have been in Washington State for weeks. As Washington State declared a state of emergency over the new coronavirus, researchers who studied two cases in the state say that the virus may have been spreading there for weeks, suggesting the possibility that up to 1,500 people in the state may have been infected. The state became the site of the country’s first coronavirus death on Saturday, at a time when President Trump issued new foreign travel warnings and restrictions in an effort to stop the spread of the virus, while also urging calm among members of the public. The number of confirmed cases worldwide had reached nearly 87,000 as of Sunday, with more than 7,000 cases outside mainland China, where the outbreak began late last year. The virus has now been detected in at least 60 countries. With 71 cases confirmed in the United States, the Food and Drug Administration announced this weekend that testing for the coronavirus would be greatly expanded in the country, a move that is expected to improve the pace of detecting infections and help identify patterns of suspected or confirmed cases. In Washington State, researchers compared two cases in the hopes of gaining such insight. One case, which last month became the first in the United States, appeared in a patient from whom health officials took a sample on Jan. 19. Another case that surfaced in the region last week probably descended from it, based on an analysis of the virus’s genetic sequence. The findings suggest that the virus has been spreading in the community for close to six weeks, according to one of the scientists who compared the sequences, Trevor Bedford, an associate professor at the University of Washington. If that is true, it could mean that 150 to 1,500 people “have either been infected and recovered or currently are infected now,” said Mike Famulare, a researcher at the Institute for Disease Modeling in Bellevue, Wash., who performed the analysis. Those cases, if they exist, have thus far been undetected. Many of those people might not yet be contagious, Dr. Famulare said. His estimation was based on a simulation using what scientists have learned about the incubation period and transmissibility of the virus. He characterized his estimate of community cases as a “best guess, with broad uncertainty.” Another method, based on census data and estimated sampling, produced similar results, he said.

If you want to be super negative: Among cases identified as "closed" (dead + recovered) 2876 out of 39756 have died, 7%.

That's my half ass analysts from Diamond Princess. I think JAMA has an analysis of 70k cases for 0.07%.

FWIW annually between 10M and 50M get the flu in the US since 2010. And that's with 40% of adults getting flu shots (that are admittedly often no better than 2/3 effective and some years far worse) to help with herd immunity. CFR seems to be just under 1%. Call it 0.85%. That would kill 170k if 20M caught it (if 6.7% caught it). If 40% caught it, you're talking 1M dead in the US alone.

Diamond Princess by the numbers as of 2/28 (so about 10 days after most released): 691 of 3700 passengers confirmed: 19% 328 of 691 asymptomatic: 47% 6 of 691 dead: 0.87% cfr or 1.6% of symptomatic cases We will see how many more deaths of that 691/328. I would he surprised if it goes more than 12. But we are still in the "oh fuck I'm dead" window. Those numbers exist within an environment pretty excellent medical care (no shortages of ICU intervention) but a uniquely old skewing population. Preliminary lessons: • So "only" 20% got it in atypically bad environment, though there was really on 1 or 2 weeks of transmission. Not sure if that is a good or bad fact for the rest of the world. • About half the cases were asymptomatic. • Death rate likely no worse than maybe 1% - though you could totally make a more severe interpretation. I figure the old age of the passengers is offset by the number of asymptomatic cases. A normal population would be healthier but we wouldn't catch the mild cases so the denominator would be illusory. One I interesting thing I read about SARS that it is under reported is how many of the survivors are basically on disability the rest of their lives. They didn't die, but many had permanent lung damage. That would suck.

This is a stupid joke but I have no regrets:

Google tells me that US averages 20 full mechanical ventilators per 100k of people. So Austin MSA of 1M better not have more than 200-300 severe cases requiring ventilators at any one time. Checking some stats; about 7% of beds can do full ventilation (62,188 ventilators and 924,107 staffed beds in entire US).