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CleverNickname

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Everything posted by CleverNickname

  1. CleverNickname
    Gaming this out for ATX with wild ass guess variables. There are about 5000 hospital beds in the Austin area. Assume 100% of them are equipped with ventilators and oxygen (so every bed could help a Covid19 patient with severe symptoms). Figure maybe 50% of those beds are needed for non-Covid reasons. So: 2500 beds. Select your own WAG numbers. Studies say maybe 15% need hospitalization. But let's say only 1/3 really need ICU treatment and the other 2/3 just need IV hydration and care. 2500 / .05 = 50,000. It would take 50k active cases to put hospitals at all they can handle. If more pessimistic assumptions: 15% need real ICU care. 2500/0.15 = 16.6k cases. Which means if more than that number people with severe cases simply die. Even more pessimistic: maybe only 1000 ventilators (still very high, maybe a doc can chime in): 1000 / .15 = 6670 cases. So 20k cases at the same time.... 13k would die.
  2. CleverNickname
    Japan to close all schools until April.
  3. CleverNickname
    https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/10/29/20936921/usaid-predict-pandemic-preparedness
  4. CleverNickname
    On the plus side, my math estimate was WAY off.
  5. CleverNickname
    Don't worry guys. WHO says not a pandemic, won't be a pandemic... https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-who/who-says-no-longer-uses-pandemic-category-but-virus-still-emergency-idUSKCN20I0N8?utm_source=reddit.com
  6. CleverNickname
    And now I check CNN website and they've jump into virus coverage big time.
  7. CleverNickname
    Why does every media outlet keep pushing "actually flu is the real danger" stories? Guess what, new virus with unknown R0 and unknown CFR is scary as shit. Seems so bizarre the aren't pimping Covid big time. Seems like only NYTimes has steady coverage.
  8. CleverNickname
    Link found at the hive of scum and villainy that is Reddit (they did a flip and China_Flu is the place for Crazy to gather): http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/recommendations.html It's a proposed pandemic playbook. I mean, #2, 5, and 6 really do emphasize downplaying concerns and prioritizing the economy. And (through paranoid eyes) #7 discusses how to juke public perception.
  9. CleverNickname
    I can confirm I just listed old folks running for president off the top of my dome, and those names were not in order by chronological age (accept by accident).
  10. CleverNickname
    What are the odds Covid19 kills one of the major olds running for president? Trump, Biden, Warren, and Sanders are old. Bloomberg is crazy old, too.
  11. CleverNickname
    +15k cases, but that's from changing criteria. So really, who the hell knows?
  12. CleverNickname
    some actual evidence that the China death numbers are juked. Japanese victim (in Wuhan) dies of "viral pneumonia" and technically not listed as coronavirus. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/coronavirus-updates-u-s-japanese-citizens-die-wuhan-global-deaths-n1132951
  13. CleverNickname
    Called it.
  14. CleverNickname
    https://twitter.com/evdefender/status/1225147786800267264?s=20
  15. CleverNickname
    Crazy about the ship quarantine... don't you have to restart the 14 day quarantine period every time there is a new case? On day 13 there might be 50 new folks who have new (and infectious) cases. It just doesn't actually make any sense to keep them all together. It's not like those 500 folks are all exposed just one time X days ago. And you can't really just say everyone has to stay in their rooms, right?
  16. CleverNickname
    2 new cases in HK, no china contact. So it is spreading there, locally. S. Korean woman picked up a case travelling to Thailand.
  17. CleverNickname
    Thought this post was very good: https://old.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/evt0bt/30_jan_wuhan_coronavirus_future_projections_and/
  18. CleverNickname
    Sorry, not sorry. Credible rape accusations mean he is a likely rapist. I'm sure Art Briles walks old ladies across the street, too.
  19. CleverNickname
    Every study poll puts the R0 well above the flu. Seasonal fly is median of 1.3; this 2019-nCoV has a similar R0 to SARS, currently estimated at 2.6. Which is lucky, as it appears to be infectious before symptoms show (unlike SARS). Normal flu mortality is about 0.1%, SARS was 11%. Estimates for this are difficult since I'm not sure you can trust the PRC numbers. Probably no worse than 3%, maybe well lower if the true number of cases is order(s) of magnitude greater. Presumably it's harder to substantially juke death stats while many infected might never get tested (shortages) or never be sick enough to need a hospital.
  20. CleverNickname
    https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3047813/china-coronavirus-hong-kong-medical-experts-call
  21. CleverNickname
    Kobe: NBA champion gold medalist philanthropist supporter of women's basketball rapist
  22. CleverNickname
    Committee to name it should have official name today-ish.
  23. CleverNickname
    latest uncorroborated rumor is a vid of a nurse saying 90,000 infected in Hubei.
  24. CleverNickname
    Around 4:24am. https://www.khou.com/mobile/article/news/local/breaking-large-blast-rattling-windows-felt-across-houston-area/285-dfb38cd1-484e-48f3-b87c-6bac0b7f2a25
  25. CleverNickname

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